They Need to Go for a Safety

Leo's over unders reveal

2012-01-03T15:35:00.003-05:00

Now that the season is over, I can see how well I did in my picks. Last year, I went 18-14. The year before I went 20-12. This year... uh, I don't feel great....

ARIZONA - 7 wins - OVER - CORRECT

Just barely got it. They quietly put together a mediocre year, much without Kolb.

ATLANTA - 10 wins - PUSH - CORRECT

Ten seemed just about right and it was.

BALTIMORE - 10.5 wins - OVER - CORRECT

I thought they'd win the division and they did. But what's with those weird losses?

BUFFALO - 5.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG

Aww so close. Congrats, you guys went from begin really awful to semi-awful with good fantasy numbers. Wooo fucking hoo.

CAROLINA - 4.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG

Like everyone else, I didn't think Cam was ready... and was wrong.

CINNCINATTI - 5.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG

Oh sure, finally put together a good season with a rookie QB and a new offense. Unbelievable.

CHICAGO - 8 wins - UNDER - WRONG

They hit 8 exact and would've had more if Cutler didn't get hurt.

CLEVELAND - 7 wins - OVER - WRONG

We all got on the wrong Ohio bandwagon. This team sucks.

DALLAS - 9 wins - OVER - WRONG

I'm happy with being wrong here. Their pain makes mine less palapable.

DENVER - 6 wins - UNDER - WRONG

Someday, I'm going to be a crazy old man wandering the streets, shaking my fist and yelling to no one in particular, "TEBOW! TEBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW!"

DETROIT - 8 wins - UNDER - WRONG

Seemed too trendy for me, but they were indeed good. I'm happy for them. They rebuilt well.

GREEN BAY - 11.5 wins - OVER - CORRECT

Did anyone even lose money on this one?

HOUSTON - 9 wins - OVER - CORRECT

They're finally making some progress. If Schaub hadn't gotten hurt they could've done more, too.

INDIANAPOLIS - 9.5 wins - UNDER - CORRECT

I was already leaning towards it before the Manning news was official. Easiest grab for anyone.

JACKSONVILLE - 6.5 wins - UNDER - CORRECT

They couldn't have made this low enough after Garrard was cut, but they didn't.

KANSAS CITY - 7.5 wins - OVER - WRONG

Gah! So close! There's a fix here. Or Tyler Palko.

MIAMI - 7.5 wins - UNDER - CORRECT

I thought Miami's late season surge had cost me this one, but it turns out they were still under. Who the hell thought they were a .500 team before the season? Through the first 6 weeks it looked like they might not win once.

MINNESOTA - 7 wins - UNDER - CORRECT

I did not like seeing McNabb go out like that. But I wasn't suprised.

NEW ORLEANS - 10 wins - OVER - CORRECT

They made it to 11 wins the year before with no running game, no D, and a tougher schedule.

NEW ENGLAND - 11.5 wins - OVER - CORRECT

At least for the regular season, they always take care of things.

NY GIANTS - 9 wins - UNDER - WRONG

Goddammit. I was ready to say yes and then backed off. They really shouldn't be here, but they are.

NY JETS - 10 wins - OVER - WRONG

Aaaaaaaaaaaand everyone is off the Rex bandwagon. And the Sanchize, if they were ever on it.

OAKLAND - 6.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG

They're not terrible, and should have won the division.

PHILADELPHIA - 10.5 wins - OVER - WRONG

Should I repost my intricate theory to how they would easily win 11 games, or should I do something that won't make me murder my neighbor with a pickaxe? Let's just say I bought the hype and bought it hard.... though, I will still contend, they are the best team in the division.

PITTSBURGH - 10.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG

They had a weird year: avoided the post Super Bowl hangover they had before, did mostly everything right, but still couldn't get the division and are kinda shaky at times. I have no idea where they'll be this month.

SAN DIEGO - 10 wins - OVER - WRONG

.... why aren't you firing Norv now? WHY? WHY? WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY?

SAN FRANCISCO - 7.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG

They teased everyone for so long, so naturally the year we stop picking them is the year they finally break out. Dicks.

SEATTLE - 6 wins - UNDER - WRONG

Like Arizona, they quietly went on a run to become not terrible. I don't know how Tavaris won 7 games but he did.

ST. LOUIS - 7.5 wins - UNDER - CORRECT

Here's a trendy up-and-comer that I did get right. I didn't think they were this bad, but I knew they needed more.

TAMPA BAY - 8 wins - PUSH - WRONG

Aww fuck. I should've trusted my instincts and just gone under. I knew they were not ready, although I never saw this.

TENNESSEE - 6.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG

I can't believe they almost made the playoffs, but I guess having a real QB, even if he is 50 years old, means something. And Chris Johnson kinda sucked. Weird.

WASHINGTON - 6 wins - UNDER - CORRECT

Not even Shanahan can save this crappy franchise. If only they could play the Giants nine times, they'd be ok.

------------

So, adding that up, that comes to.... 13 out of 32. JESUS I NEED TO RETIRE. NOW. FUCK. NExt year, fuckers.

Leo's final predictions

2011-09-08T03:43:00.001-04:00

After looking thoroughly at each time through the over-under predictions, here's what I think will be the final standings this year:

NFC

1. Packers 12-4

2. Eagles 11-5

3. Saints 11-5

4. Cardinals 8-8

5. Falcons 10-6

6. Cowboys 10-6

AFC

1. Pats 13-3

2. Chargers 11-5

3. Ravens 11-5

4. Texans 10-6

5. Jets 11-5

6. Steelers 9-7 (tiebreaker over Chiefs)

CONFERNCE: Packers over Eagles

Patriots over Jets

SB: Packers over Patriots

Yeah, I hate it too. But by saying this, it probably won't happen.

Just for fun: the last 10 Super Bowls have featured 10 different NFC teams (Packers, Saints, Cardinals, Giants, Bears, Seahawks, Eagles, Panthers, Bucs, Rams). That is ridiculous parity. (if you take it back another 7 years or so, 13 out of 16 NFC teams have made it in a span of about 17 years). The AFC, however, has been dominated by the Pats, Steelers, and Colts.

I think there is a slight change this year. The Packers, Eagles, and Saints are my favorites and in most experts' top four. One of them is probably going to make it. Even though repeats are tough, I think the Packers can buck this trend. They made it last year with a lot of young guys and missing people, and they have most of them back.

The AFC is in a period of transition. It looks like the Colts will suffer, and there are some young teams but I'm not sure if they're ready. I like the Pats, who were better than anyone expected last year and have added people. I think the Steelers have a down year, just because of injuries. This leaves the main threats to the Pats as the Jets and Ravens. Even though the Jets beat the Pats last year in the playoffs, and the Ravens did the year before, I don't know if I can trust them in another battles with the Pats. Flacco and Sanchez have made strides, but can they get there this year? I don't love their receivers, even though they have great D and running games. I'll go with Brady on experience.

(Note: I just realized the Pats haven't won a single playoff game since they lost that chance at perfection Super Bowl. Ummm... yeah... I think I'll still take them.)

Leo's 2011 over under picks

2011-09-07T12:42:00.002-04:00

It's finally time! Football begins tomorrow and I've been putting off my picks until the end. It's been a crazy couple of weeks and everyone needed to see what happened. After hearing the annual Simmons podcast on over unders, I am following suit.

Last year, I went 18-14. Not so great. The year before I went 20-12. I'm still hoping to get to 24 one year.

Let's get started.....

ARIZONA - 7 wins - OVER

Hard to say what is going on here. Last year, they had terrible QB play and still won a few games. With decent work by Kolb, they should be better. But how much? I think 8-8 is possible, even 9-7.

ATLANTA - 10 wins - PUSH

I think they take a step back, but are still good. 10 wins seems just about right. Their schedule is hard but not impossible.

BALTIMORE - 10.5 wins - OVER

I think Baltimore wins the division, although they're not better than the Steelers. They have a slightly easier sked and remember that they won 12 games a year ago with a tougher one. I wouldn't take them in a playoff game, but their record should be good.

BUFFALO - 5.5 wins - UNDER

It's easy to see them being terrible again, but they have just enough guys like Stevie Johnson and Fitzpatrick to make it interesting. They're going to be bad, but are they 3 wins bad or 6 wins bad? When in doubt, Buffalo usually disappoints.

CAROLINA - 4.5 wins - UNDER

It's not getting any easier, and they're throwing a rookie in there right away. No dice.

CINNCINATTI - 5.5 wins - UNDER

Some are talking about them as a surprise. Uh, have they seen the QB situation? They still don't even know if Carson Palmer will show up. That's bad. They're playing a rookie they don't want to because they have no other option.

CHICAGO - 8 wins - UNDER

Everyone is expecting a major step back for them. I have to agree. I trust NO ONE on this team and they got a lot of breaks last year.

CLEVELAND - 7 wins - OVER

I'm somewhat on the bandwagon. 8 or 9 wins seems very possible, but I don't see playoffs. Sure, they have no receivers, but they made progress last year and the sked is not bad at all.

DALLAS - 9 wins - OVER

Do they just automatically pencil in the Cowboys for 89 every year? It happens alot, and they had a streak of winning just that. I'm going slightly over, because 10 sounds right. Their offense will be good and they probably have enough D to survive, but not be a major contender.

DENVER - 6 wins - UNDER

Tough because 6 or 7 seems about right, but I think they have too much turmoil going on to get there. I like John Fox as a coach, but if he wants to make this a defense and running team, as he usually doies, he'll find that they don't have the guys for that.

DETROIT - 8 wins - UNDER

They're a trendy pick, and they are improving, but I want to give them another year. I'm cautious because of injury concerns and them not ever doing anything. They'll be close and a push is likely, but I'll say under.

GREEN BAY - 11.5 wins - OVER

Their division is not so hard, they bring guys back... I don't know if they can repeat, but they will be much better in the regular season at least.

HOUSTON - 9 wins - OVER

INDIANAPOLIS - 9.5 wins - UNDER

I was already leaning towards the Texans over the Colts before the Manning situation got serious. Now, it seems like a no-brainer. I know I picked the Texans last year, like a lot of people, and failed. I know I thought the Colts were slipping, and they still made it. But they looked like they were slowing down even with Peyton. And the Texans are now the best team in this division pretty easily, I'd say. I still have doubts about them, but the fact that they solved their running game says something, even if they didn't win with it last year. They only need to fix a few holes on defense, and that's easier to do than implement new QBs like the rest of the division.

JACKSONVILLE - 6.5 wins - UNDER

They weren't that bad last year, and they might have made a run at this division, but they gave up their QB and their only decent receivers. It's better in the long run, but they will have a rough year now.

KANSAS CITY - 7.5 wins - OVER

Everyone thinks they will fall back to earth this year. I think they could but under 8 wins seems kinda low. They should be able to get to 8 or 9 wins.

MIAMI - 7.5 wins - UNDER

I thought seven or eight wins earlier, but they seem to have a lot of questions on offense now. Looks like they will suck it again.

MINNESOTA - 7 wins - UNDER

They still have AP, but they lost Sidney Rice and others and McNabb is only here as a transition guy. Not a great sign.

NEW ORLEANS - 10 wins - OVER

They made it to 11 wins last year with no running game, no D, and a tougher schedule. I think they're good for that this year.

NEW ENGLAND - 11.5 wins - OVER

At least for the regular season, they take care of things. I didn't expect 14 wins last year and they did it.

NY GIANTS - 9 wins - UNDER

Nine seems ok, but they have issues. I was going to say that the NFC east would have both wild card teams, but after seeing all their injuries, I'm backing off that. They also have a bad sked matchup - they get Saints and Packers as their flex games. Ouch. I could still see them getting to 10 wins and sneaking in the playoffs, but since they lost some of the passing game, I'll go with popular demand and say under.

NY JETS - 10 wins - OVER

They got to 11 last year and it seems like they could do it again. They didn't lose much, and their offense will be a little better.

OAKLAND - 6.5 wins - UNDER

They made some progress last year, and Jason Campbell looked decent, but he has no one to throw to and their top defender left. A small step back this year is way more likely.

PHILADELPHIA - 10.5 wins - OVER

Ok, let's break this down numerically:

I'm going with a conservative estimate. First, I can see the Eagles splitting with the Giants and Cowboys in the division. They should do better, but those games are always unpredictable. They better sweep the fucking Skins or I will break something. So that's 4-2 for the division.

They play the NFC West. This is awesome. They should go 4-0 but I'll say 3-1 just to be safe.

They play the AFC East. This is tougher. I will say 2-2, because I'm going with a tough guess. They could do better.

Their two flex games are intriguing, Bears and Falcons. It seems like, no matter what the records are, they have had the same results with these teams over the past few years: they struggle against the Bears, they do good against the Falcons. I think they're better than both, but I'll call it a split. 1-1.

SO, where does that leave us? That's a pretty conservative estimate and it still leaves them at 10-6. 11-5 is more likely. 12 or 13 wins are possible, depending on how things go. If they do not win 10 games, Andy Reid should be fired immediately.

After the initial hype, a lot of people have been doubting them recently. They've been criticized for bringing in new guys at a time when there are few practices and continuity is said to be great. I keep hearing that, plus a lot of pressure and Vick's injury history against them.

Their basic offensive skill guys are all the same, though, so that's the most important consistency issue. I'm not so worried about working new defenders in; cornerbacks know how to cover and I don't think they'll mess around with them. The offensive line is a problem, but it was last year, too, and that's part of the reason they went with Vick. If he gets hurt, Vince Young is a pretty capable backup, who could be starting for a few teams. He's not great but as a backup, he's pretty high grade. Same with Ronnie Brown and Steve Smith - they aren't so great anymore, and probably won't do much, but just having that depth is a big plus. I think the defense has to be better, and let's remember that they could have won 11 or 12 games last year with a tougher schedule. I don't think they're going to slip under 10.

PITTSBURGH - 10.5 wins - UNDER

They have a history of post-Super Bowl struggles, and they have some injury concerns. Still, they probably have enough to get to 9 or 10 wins.... but 11 seems like a bit much. I'm worried about Rothy and Mendenhall being healthy enough over the whole season. I think they're better than Baltimore but they just won't get the breaks this year.

SAN DIEGO - 10 wins - OVER

They were the most reliable team other than the Colts to always hit the over for the past few years. Then, it all ended last year. But they still finished 9-7 and one game behind, for all their troubles. They just have too much talent to not win this division. They won't go anywhere in the playoffs, but they should have improved enough to get to 11 wins.

SAN FRANCISCO - 7.5 wins - UNDER

They teased us for so long, and it's just not going to happen yet. They can't get a passing game going, and Ted Ginn and Braylon Edwards are drop city. Frank Gore is an injury risk. Last year was their chance to steal a weak division and they didn't get it, and this year will be tougher.

SEATTLE - 6 wins - UNDER

They won the division, but with 7 games. Then the division got better. Then they dumped a solid QB for a much worse one. This will not end well.

ST. LOUIS - 7.5 wins - UNDER

They seem like the logical pick to win this division, with an improved cast around Bradford, who got them further than expected last year.... but not so fast. Their schedule is a killer, and I'm still not sold on them. Steven Jackson is still an injury away from disappearing. I put them behind the Lions and Bucs, and I don't have those teams in the playoffs either.

Here's the deal: Arizona won 5 games last year despite awful QB play, which they have improved. St. Louis won 7 games last year with inspired play, which is tough sometimes to keep up. Their schedules are basically the same .... except the Cardinals get Carolina and Minnesota while the Rams get Green Bay and the Giants. I like what the Rams are doing, but sometimes you fall back in the second year. It'll be tough. I have them just at 7 wins, so I will take under.

TAMPA BAY - 8 wins - PUSH

They surprised everyone last year, but now people see them falling back a little. 8 wins sounds just about right.

TENNESSEE - 6.5 wins - UNDER

It's tough because 7 to 9 wins is possible. I like Hasselbeck as a stopgap, but I don't trust any of their receivers and I don't know if the coaching change will help. I like Jeff Fisher and I think he just had too many problems on offense. I don't know if they're solved. It's tempting with the Colts suffering to go over, but I will say just under.

WASHINGTON - 6 wins - UNDER

I'm enjoying how people are talking themselves into the Skins as a sleeper team. They have NO TALENT ON OFFENSE. None. I know Sexy Rexy once made a Super Bowl with a running/ defense oriented system, but who is he going to throw to? And why didn't he take a commanding lead over the incredibly boring John Beck? How can they win a game in that division with those QBs??? I think this is a ploy and they're really trying for Andrew Luck. They might get him.

A QB is not a savior but a saver

2011-08-25T19:01:00.006-04:00

Football!

Catch it!

So football is back and I am on a craze after one fantasy draft and a few weeks of player movement. There was a debate today about quarterbacks and what they offer. The ones in question were Brady, Brees, Vick, Eli, and Roethlisberger, since they represented our favorite teams in the league. (Someone conveniently forgot Alex Smith...)

The question was something along the lines of what to expect from each QB and who was the most valuable. For fantasy purposes, the last person I want from that group is Eli, although I have Rothy and I am very worried about it. For real life purposes, I think Vick is the most unproven, and I guess I would take Eli over him, but that depends on what happens this year. This came about on some Giants-Eagles smack talk and it reminded me of an old debate I've been having with Giants fans: Eli vs. McNabb (now it will be Eli vs. Vick).

Giants fans love reminding the Eagles that they never won a Super Bowl. Correct. But does that mean Eli was a better QB than McNabb? Is Eli still someone you'd take over Vick? I don't know. McNabb put up better numbers for a longer time (Eli still has quite a few years left) and practically carried the offense by himself in the early part of his career. His '00 season made him a runner-up to the MVP vote in his second year in the league (and first full one as starter). I won't go into Pro Bowls, because people drop out of them all the time and the guys who actually participate are usually not the first or second choice. But, suffice to say, McNabb has a better record when it comes to MVP voting and postseason awards. I don't think anyone has ever considered Eli one of the best 5 passers in the league.

Oh, but he won the big game, you say? He came through when McNabb choked (or puked) and thus that's the end of it? It's not so easy. Eli led a Giants team that got hot at the right time and got some good breaks in the playoffs. Remember that the Giants had tight games with the Cowboys and Packers and had to go to OT to beat the Pack. Eli was solid, but it was also helping that he was facing even bigger chokers in Romo and old-almost-out-of-Green-Bay Favre, not the prime Favre. Those teams had good offenses, and the Giants D slowed them down. Eli was just good enough to keep them in it, and then those other teams made costly turnovers late.

Then, in the Super Bowl, the same thing continued. The Giants' defensive line ate up the Patriots, like no other team had done. They didn't give Brady time to throw, like he usually had that year. They pushed and prodded Randy Moss, and we all know how bad he can get when he's not happy. Eli made two amazing throws that worked, the Giants won, and everyone was shocked. But does that make him a superstar?

I think what he did in the 2007 playoffs was more akin to Trent Dilfer with the Ravens in '00 or Brad Johnson with the Bucs in '02. He rode a hot defense and played smart, mistake-free ball, and made sure to keep the running game going. This does not make him a star. Neither of those other guys are going to the Hall of Fame. I do think Eli is much better than them, and probably worthy of being in the top 10 in the league now. But a superstar? Meh.

I'll make another comparison this decade: Jake Delhomme in '03. He was a little more risky than these guys, but he also rode a great defense and running game to a Super Bowl. There, his team came back against a decent Pats team by chucking it late and hoping that Steve Smith would go get it. Watching Delhomme in that Super Bowl fling it up to Smith and Mushin Muhammed was like watching Eli toss it up to David Tyree and Plaxico Burress. The difference was that Eli made his passes (the Tyree catch continues to defy all logic) and the Panthers made a stupid kicking penalty late that let the Pats finish them off. If not for a few fluky plays, we could be looking at a world where Delhomme had more rings than McNabb, Hasselbeck, and Eli. Is he better than any of them? No. Absolutely not.

Let me defend McNabb in this situation some more. Yes, the Eagles blew a bunch of NFC championship games. But the fact that they made so many has to say something about consistently being pretty decent. Check this out - how many playoff games has Eli won with the Giants, other than that great run in '07? ZERO. He hasn't won since then, and he hadn't won before then. Included in those playoff losses are two at the hands of Eagles teams led by McNabb. I know he won it all, but doesn't it say something that he never made it back to even the NFC championship round? McNabb did that 5 times.

Finally, let us not forget who they were up against. I know everyone remembers the 2007 Pats because they went undefeated in the regular season and set a lot of passing records. They think that was probably the best team that Bellichick and Brady have had, even though they lost. I disagree. I will argue with my life that the best edition of the Patriots this decade was the '04 squad that beat the Eagles. You laugh, but think about it. The '04 team had just won the Super Bowl with a makeshift running game, then added Corey Dillon. Suddenly they had a balanced attack and a great defense to go with a super-efficient passing offense led by Brady. They won the same amount of games as the year before (14, which is still pretty damn good) but they were much, much better. The rest of the AFC had gotten better, too. In the playoffs, they showed their dominance, smothering the Colts 20-3 (they held Manning without a TD, which is pretty insane) and then destroying the Steelers, who had just won 15 games, IN PITTSBURGH. Yikes. They were tough. The Eagles played them hard but they just couldn't catch up.

The 2007 Pats, while more flashy, were not as balanced. That 2004 team had a running game. The 2007 edition did not. I remember this because I had Laurence Maroney and he was a gigantic bust. They had an amazing passing game with Moss over the top and Welker catching short passes, but part of the reason why they set records is because they HAD to throw all the time. They gave up on the running game often and had Kevin Faulk, a very good third-down catching back, in for more plays than they were planning. Don't get me wrong, this was a very good team with an outstanding passing game, but their numbers were just a little inflated because their run game sucked so much. And yes, early on, the Pats were running up the score on people and looked unstoppable. But as the season went on, they started to wear down a little. They went undefeated, but they had a bunch of close games that could have gone either way. It was dramatic to watch them survive each week, and it looked like someone could knock them off if they just got the breaks. (It happened.) Once the playoffs started, they had some good but unspectacular wins at home over two decent squads, Jacksonville and San Diego. Compare that to the 04' team, who got better in the AFC playoffs and killed great competition. The '07 Pats had an easier road in the AFC, as the Steelers were a year away and the Colts had some injuries and couldn't figure out the Chargers. The '04 team killed the Steelers in Pittsburgh; the '07 team handled a Norv Turner team at home. I don't think it was the same.

But that's just me.

Look, don't take this as an insult to Eli. The QB is the most important position and you can't win without someone good there. But it's not the end all. This is part of a bigger trend that has been going on a long time. Remember that John Elway, at the peak of his career, was able to get the Broncos through a weak AFC mostly by himself, with little talent.... only to be killed unmercifully in the Super Bowl by NFC teams with weaker QBs but much better supporting casts. When he finally won it, he was on the downside of his career, but his team had found a running game and defense. Remember that Aaron Rodgers was great last year, but he was also pretty good a few years ago when the Packers went 6-10 and had a terrible defense. You just didn't hear much about him then. Remember that the difference in the '06 Colts was nothing Peyton Manning did or anything the Colts had on offense - it was good as usual - but that Bob Sanders finally stayed healthy for a few weeks and the defense stepped up.

The QB is not the savior. He can be a big saver, but he is not the final answer.

Another reason to hate Boston (like you needed it)

2011-06-16T07:44:00.000-04:00

In my last post a few months ago, I tracked the teams over the past decade that had won their first title in franchise history, or the first in a really long time. I was hoping to add two more teams to that list this week with the titles of the Mavericks and Canucks, who had never won. Alas, Vancouver lost game 7, they rioted, [although I think we all know the real reason Vancouver is on fire - someone in the crowd said that Canadian beer sucks], and now Boston has yet another title to add to their recent mantle.

In the wake of preparing to hear insufferable New Englanders trying to think of something to complain about, now that they've won everything, I started thinking about a different facet to research: has anyone ever won titles across all 4 major pro leagues in such a short amount of time?

No.

Not even close.

I had to look this up. On February 6, 2005, the Patriots defeated the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX, a game a lot of us remember all too well. On June 15, 2011, the Bruins won the Stanley Cup (and in between, the Red Sox and Celtics won titles). That's a span of 6 years, 4 months, and 9 days. I wanted to see if any other city could match that.

Well, out of the 13 cities that have had all 4 major leagues at one time, even if they don't anymore (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, Washington, Boston, Dallas, Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Denver, and Miami), only a few of them hold titles in all sports, regardless of time span. New York, Philly, Boston, Chicago, and Detroit are the only ones, unless you count the Anaheim Ducks as part of Los Angeles (debatable). Even if you wanted to combine the Bay Area teams, or Tampa with Orlando, they don't have titles across all 4 sports.

So, just having franchises that have won titles in every sport is pretty rare, let alone in a short time frame. New York, with all its teams, would seem to be the most likely candidate to pull it off, but they haven't come close to what Boston just did. The shortest span to have New York teams capture all four titles is 11 years, from 1969 to 1980 -- but, even then, you'd have to count the Islanders, and I know Long Island isn't quite the same as New York city. It's a questionable run. If you didn't count the Islanders, then New York's shortest span is from 1973 to 1994 - a whole 21 years. The Knicks and Rangers, for all their history, don't win the title very often.

Some cities have come kind of close, but fell one title short. L.A. was pretty hot in the early 80's with the Lakers and Dodgers, and then the Raiders moved in and won a Super Bowl, but the Kings never won a Stanley Cup, not even after they got Gretsky. Detroit had a nice run in the 80's and 90's, but the Lions couldn't do anything. Chicago finally broke through recently with the White Sox and Blackhawks ending droughts, but the Bears haven't won since the Super Bowl Shuffle crew, so their shortest span was almost 25 years.

Ironically, it is my beloved home base Philly that almost came the closest to equalling what Boston has done. In between the Flyers' second Cup win in 1975 and the Sixers winning the finals in 1983, the Phils and Eagles made runs, but the Eagles lost the 1981 Super Bowl. If they had won, Philly would still be second to Boston, with a span of 8 years and 4 days... but that would have been an amazing run. As it is, Philly's shortest span is almost 20 years, from the Eagles winning the NFL Championship (pre-Super Bowl) in December 1960 to the Phillies winning the World Series in October 1980.

So, cheers to you, Boston. You just did something unheard of in major pro sports. You've tasted victory with every team, in a much shorter time than anyone, ever, including that hated New Yahk. So now that it's over, there's just one thing left...

Can you shut the fuck up already?

-------

For research purposes, shortest spans I could find:

1. Boston (2005 Pats - 2007 Red Sox - 2008 Celtics - 2011 Bruins): 6 years, 4 months, 9 days

2. New York* (1969 Jets - 1969 Mets - 1970,73 Knicks - 1977,78 Yankees - 1980 Islanders): 11 years, 4 months, 12 days *counting Long Island as part of NY

3. Philadelphia (1960 Eagles - 1967 Sixers - 1974,75 Flyers - 1980 Phillies): 19 years, 10 months, 25 days

4. New York (1973 Knicks - 1977,78 Yankees - 1986 Mets - 1987,91 Giants - 1994 Rangers): 21 years, 1 month, 4 days

5. Los Angeles* (1983 Raiders - 1985,87,88,2000,01,02 Lakers - 1988 Dodgers - 2002 Angels - 2007 Ducks): 23 years, 5 months, 17 days *counting Anaheim as part of LA

6. Chicago (1986 Bears - 1991,92,93,96,97,98 Bulls - 2005 White Sox - 2010 Blackhawks): 24 years, 4 months, 14 days

Also, Detroit's shortest span, from the '57 Lions to the '89 Pistons (with multiple titles by the Red Wings and Tigers in between) is 31 years, 6 months, and 15 days.

The 2000's: The End of Curses and Droughts?

2011-02-15T08:41:00.002-05:00

After the Giants won the series, their first in 50 years, I thought back to some of the long droughts that ended this decade, like the Red Sox, Saints, Blackhawks and White Sox. It seemed like a lot of franchises in all 4 major pro sports were finally breaking through over the past 10 or so years. The Red Sox certainly got the most attention, but I had a feeling that many other teams had won a title or made a final game for the first time ever, or in a long time. I decided to look up and see how many there actually were.

And yes, there were quite a few.

Teams that won a championship this decade for the first time ever, or the first time in a long time (more than 35 years):

St. Louis Rams '00 (see also: Arizona Cardinals '09) - The Rams won their first Super Bowl (they had lost one while in Los Angeles). This was their first overall title since 1951 (pre-Super Bowl era), and first since moving in 1995. This was also the first NFL title for the city of St. Louis, as the football Cardinals never won anything while they were there.

Baltimore Ravens '01 (see also: Indianapolis Colts '07) - The Ravens won their first Super Bowl since moving in 1996. Baltimore the city already had titles with the Colts, but this was the first for the "new" franchise. If you count their previous history as the Browns, it was still their first Super Bowl appearance and win.

Arizona Diamondbacks '01 - Won first title in first World Series appearance after only 4 seasons of existence. Yeah, I know, not much of a drought..... but, they were the first team from that state to win a title. Arizona has had pro teams since 1969, although up until the 80's it was just the Suns.

New England Patriots '02 - Won first Super Bowl. Franchise started in 1960.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers '03 - Won first Super Bowl in first appearance. Franchise started in 1976. They sure seemed cursed for a long time; maybe it was just those orange jerseys.

Anaheim / Los Angeles Angels '02 - Won first title ever in first trip to World Series. Franchise started in 1961.

Tampa Bay Lightning '04 - Won first Stanley Cup. Franchise started in 1992, despite questions about why they'd put a hockey team in Florida.

Boston Red Sox '04 - Won title for first time since 1918. You may have heard about this.

Chicago White Sox '05 - Won title for first time since 1917, in first trip to World Series since 1959. Yes, they were out longer than the Red Sox but got less attention, probably because everyone knows where their bad karma came from.

Carolina Hurricanes '06 - Won first Stanley Cup, including time as Hartford Whalers, who joined NHL in 1979.

Miami Heat '06 - Won first NBA title in first finals trip ever. Franchise started in 1988.

Indianapolis Colts '07 - As stated, the Colts had won Super Bowls in Baltimore, but this was the first pro title of any kind for the state of Indiana. The Colts moved to Indy in 1984.

Anaheim Ducks '07 - Won first Stanley Cup. Franchise started in 1993. Unfortunately, the junior world titles accumulated under the reign of Emilio Estevez did not count.

New Orleans Saints '10 - Won first title in first trip to Super Bowl. Franchise started in 1967.

Chicago Blackhawks '10 - Won Stanley Cup for first time since 1961.

San Francisco Giants '10 - Won title for first time since 1954, and first ever since they moved west.

And the Phillies..... Philadelphia had the infamous curse of William Penn, so named for the old rule that no building could be made higher than the statue of Billy Penn that sits atop city hall. This rule was broken in the mid 80's, and since it happened, no team had won a title, until the Phils. Now, 1983-2008 may not seem like a super long time. 25 years, compared to some of these franchises, isn't much. But when you consider the fact that Philly has 4 teams, to not have any of them win any titles in 25 years is a big stretch. Consider all the cities that have 4 or more teams. None of them had longer streaks. Even the cities with 3 pro teams didn't have as long of a winless streak at the time the Phillies won.... well, except for one.... you can guess who that is....

Cities with 3 or more teams (4 or more get an *), with last title won, as of September 2008 [last title in brackets]:

Atlanta* [Braves '95], Boston* [Red Sox '07], Cleveland [err...Browns '64], Chicago* [White Sox '05], Dallas* [Stars '99], Detroit* [Pistons '04], Denver* [Avalanche '01], Houston [Rockets '94], Los Angeles* [Lakers '03], Miami* [Heat '06], Minneapolis* [Twins '91], New York* [Giants '08], Oakland [A's '89], Phoenix* [D-Backs '01], Philly* [Sixers '83], Pittsburgh [Steelers '05], St. Louis [Cardinals '06], Tampa Bay [Lightning '04], Toronto [Blue Jays '93], Washington* [Redskins '92]

(....and if you want to include North Carolina with Charlotte/Raleigh [Hurricanes '06] and Wisconsin with Milwaukee/Green Bay [Packers '97], they were more recent too.)

So maybe it was a big deal that Philly overcame that. Sorry, Cleveland.

Teams that made a championship game/finals appearance for the first time:

Already covered - winners in their first appearance - Diamondbacks, Angels, Ravens, Lightning, Heat, Saints

Tennessee Titans '00 - First Super Bowl appearance, not only for their brief time in Nashville, but also counting their previous years as the Houston Oilers. The Oilers won the AFL title in 1961, but never made the Super Bowl once it started.

Indiana Pacers '00 - First finals appearance. Franchise joined NBA in 1976.

New Jersey Nets '02 - First finals appearance. Franchise joined NBA in 1976.

Carolina Panthers '04 - First Super Bowl appearance. Franchise started in 1995. Not that long, but they had some terrible luck and tragedy.

Houston Astros '05 - First World Series appearance. Franchise started in 1962.

Seattle Seahawks '06 - First Super Bowl appearance. Franchise started in 1976.

Dallas Mavericks '06 - First finals appearance. Franchise started in 1980.

Ottawa Senators '07 - First finals appearance. Franchise started in 1992.

Cleveland Cavaliers '07 - First finals appearance. Franchise started in 1970. Despite Dan Gilbert's promise, this is probably not going to happen again anytime soon.

Colorado Rockies '07 - First World Series appearance. Franchise started in 1993.

Tampa Bay Rays '08 - First World Series appearance. Franchise started in 1998. Not long, but after (all their) 10 seasons only finishing dead last, it was a surprise run.

Arizona Cardinals '09 - First Super Bowl appearance. First NFL title game appearance in Phoenix. They last won the NFL title in 1947, long before the Super Bowl era, when they were in Chicago. They never won a title nor made it to the final game during years in St. Louis.

Texas Rangers '10 - First World Series appearance. Includes previous years as "new" Washington Senators. Lots of rough years. Franchise started in 1961.

Notable droughts (40 years or more of no titles, 50 or more with no finals appearances) still abound:

Arizona / St. Louis / Chicago Cardinals - last won NFL title in 1947, haven't won Super Bowl

Atlanta Falcons - never won NFL title or Super Bowl; franchise started in 1966

Atlanta Hawks - last won NBA title in 1958 while they were in St. Louis; have never made NBA finals since moving to Atlanta in 1968

Buffalo Bills - never won Super Bowl, despite four straight trips; franchise won AFL title in 1966; just ask Vincent Gallo

Buffalo Sabres - never won Stanley Cup; franchise started in 1970

Chicago Cubs - haven't made World Series since 1945; haven't won since 1908

Cincinnati Bengals - never won NFL title or Super Bowl; franchise started in 1968

Cleveland Browns - last won NFL title in 1964; have never made a Super Bowl (unless you count the Ravens, but they don't)

Cleveland Cavaliers - never won NBA title; franchise started in 1970

Cleveland Indians - haven't won World Series since 1948

(Cleveland, city of - lake on fire, LeBron's decision, the fumble, Jose Mesa, last title of any kind in 1964)

Denver Nuggets - never won ABA title or made NBA finals; franchise began in 1967

Detroit Lions - last won NFL title in 1957; have never made a Super Bowl

Houston Astros - never won World Series; franchise started in 1962

Houston NFL teams - haven't ever made Super Bowl; Oilers won AFL title in 1961 but never made SB; Texans haven't even made playoffs yet

Los Angeles Clippers / Buffalo Braves - have never made NBA finals; franchise started in 1970

Los Angeles Kings - never won Stanley Cup; franchise started in 1967

Milwaukee Brewers - never won World Series; franchise started in 1969

Minnesota Vikings - never won Super Bowl; franchise started in 1961

Minnesota NHL teams - North Stars never won Stanley Cup from 1967-1993; Wild has not made finals in 10 years of existence (I'm giving them this because this one of the few places in America that really REALLY cares about hockey)

Philadelphia Eagles - last won NFL title in 1960. Have not won Super Bowl. I guess this isn't the WORST place to be......

Phoenix Suns - never won NBA title; franchise started in 1969. A lot of close misses.

Sacramento / Kansas City Kings - have not won NBA title since 1951, when they were the Rochester Royals. Have not made finals since 1951 either. (Were close a few years ago before Laker shenanigans.)

San Diego Padres - never won World Series; franchise started in 1969

St. Louis Blues - never made Stanley Cup finals; franchise started in 1967

Texas Rangers - never won World Series; franchise started in 1961

Toronto Maple Leafs - haven't won Stanley Cup since 1967

Vancouver Canucks - never won Stanley Cup; franchise started in 1970

Washington Nationals / Montreal Expos - never made a World Series; franchise started in 1969

.... and maybe we can count the Jets and Chiefs, who won some of the early Super Bowls ('69, '70) but haven't made it since......

Expanding the NFL playoffs: Good(dell) idea?

2011-01-28T04:14:00.004-05:00

After Seattle won the NFC West this year with a lame 7-9 record, and the Giants and Buccaneers missed the NFC playoffs both with a 10-6 record, a lot of football fans were upset. They complained about the division set-up and the current playoff system.

Well, the NFL does have an answer for this, but it's not realignment. They want to expand the playoffs to 7 or 8 teams per conference. They also want to expand the season to 18 games, but you probably heard about that already (it will be a key debate in the upcoming negotiations). The NFL has actually been talking about playoff expansion for a few years, and in the wake of this year's debacle, they will certainly push for this to happen. It makes sense for them, because more playoff games equal more money they can make. Every other major sports league has made their playoffs longer and/or involved more teams. No one has ever shortened it.

But will it help? Would having an extra 2 or 4 teams in the playoffs really guarantee that all the good teams get in? Ever since 2002, when they went to an eight-division format, they have dealt with some weak division winners. Some good teams have been left out. But would it really solve everything? I found a lot of talk about this in various forums, but I didn't find anyone who actually went through and computed what would have happened if we had expanded playoffs for the past 9 years. So I did it (not that it was that hard, with ESPN having the standings for these years still up).

I'm going to show the teams that made the playoffs the past 9 years, since the NFL expanded to 32 teams and 8 divisions, and the teams that would've made it under the proposed system. Let's see if an extra team or two would really provide a lot of help.....

2010

NFC

1. Falcons 13-3
2. Bears 11-5
3. Eagles 10-6
4. Seahawks 7-9
5. Saints 11-5
6. Packers 10-6
NEXT IN:
7. Giants 10-6
8. Buccaneers 10-6

AFC

1. Patriots 14-2
2. Steelers 12-4
3. Colts 10-6
4. Chiefs 10-6
5. Ravens 12-4
6. Jets 11-5
NEXT IN:
7. Chargers 9-7
8. Jaguars 8-8

Like I said, this may be the tipping point that convinces people to expand the playoffs. In the NFC, a 7-9 team got in while two separate 10-6 teams were left out. But in the AFC, the six best teams made it. Did we really need to see an underachieving Chargers team, and an 8-8 Jags team that blew their chances by losing to the Redskins late? I don't know.

2009

NFC

1. Saints 13-3
2. Vikings 12-4
3. Cowboys 11-5
4. Cardinals 10-6
5. Packers 11-5
6. Eagles 11-5
NEXT IN:
7. Falcons 9-7
8. Panthers 8-8
(Note: 49ers, Giants also finished 8-8 but would lose on tiebreaker)

AFC

1. Colts 14-2
2. Chargers 13-3
3. Patriots 10-6
4. Bengals 10-6
5. Jets 9-7
6. Ravens 9-7
NEXT IN:
7. Texans 9-7
8. Steelers 9-7

Here, the top 6 teams in both conferences made it. There were some okay teams left out, but no one really special.

2008

NFC

1. Giants 12-4
2. Panthers 12-4
3. Vikings 10-6
4. Cardinals 9-7
5. Falcons 11-5
6. Eagles 9-6-1
NEXT IN:
7. Buccaneers 9-7
8. Bears 9-7
(Note: Cowboys also finished 9-7 but would lose to Bears on tiebreakers)

AFC

1. Titans 13-3
2. Steelers 12-4
3. Dolphins 11-5
4. Chargers 8-8
5. Colts 12-4
6. Ravens 11-5
NEXT IN:
7. Patriots 11-5
8. Jets 9-7

This was another year with controversy that had people talking about expanding the playoffs. The Patriots won 11 games but missed a very narrow tiebreaker with the Dolphins for the division and lost out on the playoffs entirely, while the Chargers made it with an 8-8 record. Boston fans were wicked pissed. The Jets also finished better than the Chargers (this was the one year they had Favre). You could make a case for both teams. In the NFC, though, there were no big upsets, although some complained that the Cardinals had an easy ride in.... but then, they made the Super Bowl, so it didn't matter.

2007

NFC

1. Cowboys 13-3
2. Packers 13-3
3. Seahawks 10-6
4. Buccaneers 9-7
5. Giants 10-6
6. Redskins 9-7
NEXT IN:
7. Vikings 8-8
8. Eagles 8-8
(Note: Cardinals also finished 8-8 but would lose to Eagles on tiebreakers)

AFC

1. Patriots 16-0* (AHHHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA... sorry... I had to...)
2. Colts 13-3
3. Chargers 11-5
4. Steelers 10-6
5. Jaguars 11-5
6. Titans 10-6
NEXT IN:
7. Browns 10-6
8. Texans 8-8

I do remember feeling really bad for the Browns this year. They had a great year (for them) and just barely missed out on the playoffs. They don't get many chances like that. But that's about it. The other teams in would be 8-8 and not that good. I am a hardcore Eagles fan, and I'll admit that this team was NOT playoff-worthy.

2006

NFC

1. Bears 13-3
2. Saints 10-6
3. Eagles 10-6
4. Seahawks 9-7
5. Cowboys 9-7
6. Giants 8-8
NEXT IN:
7. Packers 8-8
8. Rams 8-8
(Note: Panthers also finished 8-8 but would lose to Rams on tiebreaker)

AFC

1. Chargers 14-2
2. Ravens 13-3
3. Colts 12-4
4. Patriots 12-4
5. Jets 10-6
6. Chiefs 9-7
NEXT IN:
7. Broncos 9-7
8. Bengals 8-8
(Note: Steelers, Titans, Jags were also 8-8 but would lose on tiebreaker)

If you ever wondered how Rex Grossman made it to the SB, just remember how much the NFC sucked this year. No team besides the Bears won more than 10 games. The NFC already had an 8-8 team make it. I don't think they needed more. The AFC was stronger, and their best teams did make it in.

2005

NFC

1. Seahawks 13-3
2. Bears 11-5
3. Buccaneers 11-5
4. Giants 11-5
5. Carolina 11-5
6. Redskins 10-6
NEXT IN:
7. Vikings 9-7
8. Cowboys 9-7

AFC

1. Colts 14-2
2. Broncos 13-3
3. Bengals 11-5
4. Patriots 10-6
5. Jaguars 12-4
6. Steelers 11-5
NEXT IN:
7. Chiefs 10-6
8. Chargers 9-7

Now this year was the first year I remember people talking about playoff expansion. The Steelers won it all as a 6 seed, and the Chiefs and Chargers were shut out despite being pretty good teams. But, still, the Chiefs weren't any better than any of the playoff teams. And in the NFC, the best teams made it. So, it's not like anyone undeserving got in. WORTH NOTING: This is the only year that would feature 16 playoff teams that all won 9 games or more.

2004

NFC

1. Eagles 13-3
2. Falcons 11-5
3. Packers 10-6
4. Seahawks 9-7
5. Rams 8-8
6. Vikings 8-8
NEXT IN:
7. Saints 8-8
8. Panthers 7-9

AFC

1. Steelers 15-1
2. Patriots 14-2
3. Colts 12-4
4. Chargers 12-4
5. Jets 10-6
6. Broncos 10-6
NEXT IN:
7. Ravens 9-7
8. Jaguars 9-7
(Note: Bills also finished 9-7 but would lose out on tiebreakers)

In retrospect, I'm kinda pissed the Eagles made the gamble for T.O. They probably would've won this crappy conference anyway. Two 8-8 teams made it! And they both won a game! What a down year, and having a 7-9 team in the mix wouldn't help. In the AFC, the top 6 teams made it.

2003

NFC

1. Eagles 12-4
2. Rams 12-4
3. Panthers 11-5
4. Packers 10-6
5. Seahawks 10-6
6. Cowboys 10-6
NEXT IN:
7. Vikings 9-7
8. Saints 8-8

AFC

1. Patriots 14-2
2. Chiefs 13-3
3. Colts 12-4
4. Ravens 10-6
5. Titans 12-4
6. Broncos 10-6
NEXT IN:
7. Dolphins 10-6
8. Bengals 8-8

I forgot that the Dolphins won 10 games and lost out. But they didn't finish above anyone that did make it. In the NFC, 8 teams would've ruined one of the best stories this decade: the Packers needed to win the division to get in, and had trailed Minnesota most of the season, but on the last game, an awful Cardinals team upset the Vikings on a last-second play and helped the Packers get in. Later that week, Packers fans invited the Cards' third-string wide receiver who made the big play to Wisconsin to party it up and thanked him for helping send the Vikings home. They had a giant bash in his honor. See, that fun stuff never would've happened if the Vikings had made it in anyway.

2002

NFC

1. Eagles 12-4
2. Buccaneers 12-4
3. Packers 12-4
4. 49ers 10-6
5. Giants 10-6
6. Falcons 9-6-1
NEXT IN:
7. Saints 9-7
8. Rams 7-9

AFC

1. Raiders 11-5
2. Titans 11-5
3. Steelers 10-5-1
4. Jets 9-7
5. Colts 10-6
6. Browns 9-7
NEXT IN:
7. Dolphins 9-7
8. Patriots 9-7
(Broncos also finished 9-7 but would lose on tiebreakers)

The first year in the current format produced a lot of craziness in the AFC. The Jets started out horribly but somehow won the division on multiple tiebreakers over the Dolphins and Pats. The Browns clinched the last playoff spot by several other tiebreakers. During the season, it looked like the Pats, Fins, and Broncos were maybe the best teams in the conference, and they all missed out. The NFC, however, made sense.

FINAL ANALYSIS

Expanding the playoffs would get some good teams in, but it would more likely include a lot of mediocre teams. There have been only 2 instances (2010 NFC and 2008 AFC) where a team that has not made the playoffs has finished better than a team that made it in. There was only one year (2005) where all 16 teams would be 9-7 or better. In 9 years of the current system, with a possible 36 extra teams to make it in, there have been only 6 teams that won 10 games or more and didn't make it. If we had those extra teams (a total of 8 per conference) in the playoffs for the past 9 years, we would've had a breakdown like this by record:

11-5: 1 team
10-6: 5 teams
9-7: 17 teams
8-8: 11 teams
7-9: 2 teams

We would have had more 8-8 teams than 10 + teams, and a lot of 9-7 teams. 9-7 isn't so bad, but it shouldn't necessarily guarantee you a playoff spot.

Let's see how those numbers compare if we only had an extra playoff team, for 7 per conference:

11-5: 1 team
10-6: 4 teams
9-7: 10 teams
8-8: 3 teams

That's a little better. Having 7 playoff teams would keep most of the good (10 wins) teams and eliminate most of the mediocre (8 wins) ones.

I think we can say that having 7 teams in the playoffs instead of 6 might help things out. It would get mostly 9-wins-and-over teams in there. But we should remember that a situation like this year is very rare.

One final aside: Look, I don't love the divisions as they are set up, but it would be hard mathematically to change them. The NFL is not going to add any teams soon, just move some around. 32 is a hard number to divide into anything but multiples of 4. I liked the old format with 6 teams making it from 3 divisions in each conference because it left less possibilities for crappy divisions. It also gave one wild card team a home game in the playoffs, which was nice when the two best teams were in one division. The way it is now, no wild card team can finish better than 5th, no matter how good they are. As the Seahawks just showed, you can't deny the importance of getting a home crowd for a playoff game. One solution to that would be to have the team with the better record host the game, even if they are the lower seed. But I digress. The 3 division format just won't work unless the NFL drops 2 teams or adds 4 more, and neither of those are going to happen. They'll just add extra playoff games and hope for the best.

Like I said, playoff expansion is very likely. No league has ever said no to expanding playoffs, and I don't see why the NFL would. I guess we can just hope that they stop at 7 spots and not 8, because the numbers show that 8 spots allow for too many sub par teams.

Leo's 2010 Over-Under Predictions: THE RESULTS

2011-01-06T19:29:00.004-05:00

I'm looking back at the predicted win totals I made for each team based on the Vegas over unders. My initial guesses are in italics.

Arizona 8 - UNDER

Ugly QB is gone. They have no faith in their guys. And Boldin is gone, so Fitzgerlad will be triple teamed mercilessly. I know the division sucks, and I like what Whisenhunt has done, but they're due for a slippage.

CORRECT. Yeah, they suck. That's fine. That's fine. That's fine.

Atlanta 9.5 - OVER

They're a trendy pick in the NFC. I thought they would fall back to Earth last year, but they still managed 9 wins. I don't think they're the favorites as many say, but they should get to 10 wins.

CORRECT. I still don't know if they are a contender, but they got here with ease.

Baltimore 9.5 - OVER

Another trendy pick. I like what they've done with adding Boldin and the development of Flacco.

CORRECT. They'repretty good.

Buffalo 5.5 - UNDER

Eventually, this whole city will commit a mass suicide. Or maybe Cleveland will beat them to it.

CORRECT. Although they didn't seem too bad at times.

Carolina 6.5 - UNDER

They actually weren't that bad last year, but they had no passing game and they still don't. I am tempted, but I don't trust them.

CORRECT. They're just awful.

Chicago 7.5 - OVER

I think 8-8 is reasonable. They have some receivers now.

CORRECT. Actually they were much better than that.

Cinnc 8.5 - UNDER

I didn't take them seriously last year, and they ended up doing good. This year, the division is tough and I have to think/hope they will self-destruct.

CORRECT. Who the hell thought this would work?

Cleveland 5.5 - UNDER

Eventually, this whole city will commit a mass suicide. Or maybe Buffalo will beat them to it.

CORRECT. Although they were close. They were competetive.

Dallas 10.5 - UNDER

10.5 is just a little too high. I think 10 is more likely. Their schedule is tough, the division is a nightmare, Wade is a softy, I have to go under.

CORRECT. Thank god I went under. I didn't see this collapse coming, but I love it.

Denver 7 - PUSH (under if pushes don't count)

They almost proved me wrong last year when I predicted doom for them, then fell apart anyway. But now they have no receivers. But the division sucks. 7 is just about right..... so...... eh...

???? I won't count this. I said push with maybe under. They were bad. I should've just said that.

Detroit 5.5 - UNDER

This seems a little high for them. I do think they are finally on a good track, but still taking baby steps.

WRONG. They were just a tad over. Weird season - they seemed really competetive early on but had a bad record, then Stafford got hurt, then they ended up winning some games anyway.

GBay 9.5 - OVER

This is easy. They won 11 last year and they're still improving. Uncertainty about the Vikings helps.

CORRECT. Just barely.

Houston 8.5 - OVER

I don't trust them, but I can also see them sneaking into the playoffs this year. 9 wins is tempting.... they do get to play the AFC west.

WRONG. Ouch. My first really bad call. I thought they'd put it together, and when they opened up by beating the Colts and showing they had a good running game, I thought for sure they'd be good. Their defense just sucks.

Indy 10.5 - OVER

They haven't won less than 11 games in quite a long time. I don't see why that stops this year. They keep bringing in guys around Peyton.

WRONG. Almost! But no. This is the year Indy and San Diego finally slipped a little.

Jax 6.5 - UNDER

7 wins sounds about right, but their division is tough and they've been in a funk the past few years.

WRONG. They made a surprising run for the division until they fell apart in the last few weeks.

KC 6.5 - OVER

A minor surprise. I think they can get to 7 or 8 wins. They have some people. I like them better than the Raiders or Broncos, which isn't saying much, but it gets them to second place.

CORRECT. They were actually better than that.

Miami 8.5 - UNDER

They weren't terrible last year after their big surprise season, but they still have question marks.

CORRECT. And that question mark is QB. Never a good sign.

Minnesota 9.5 - OVER

Two years ago, when they has no passing game of note, they still managed to get 10 wins. So even if Favre finally shows his age and the receivers are hurting, they should be up there. This is a little more risky than I thought it would be....

WRONG. My god, this was wrong. But I'm giddy to see it all end.

NEngland 9.5 - OVER

I think they get back to 10 wins. Brady will get better and they always seem to be there.

CORRECT. Amazing that Vegas didn't love them like they usually do.

Nawlins 11 - PUSH (under if no pushes)

I was originally thinking they would have a big letdown. It's not their fault. A lot of good teams have Super Bowl hangovers. But now, after seeing them pick up that great offense where it left off, I think they'll be ok. Still, asking for another 12 or 13 wins is tough. I think they get to 10 or 11.

CORRECT. Wow, I said 11 on the dot and it happened. I'm taking this one.

NYGiants 9 - OVER

This is tough. Things went bad for them and they still got 8-8. They're always lurking. I will pick them and hope I'm wrong. I did notice that their schedule, while obviously similar to Philly's, has Seattle and Carolina as its flex games. Dammit! That's just not fair!

CORRECT. Good deal! They didn't make the playoffs but I got it right!

NYJets 9.5 - UNDER

I can see them having a slight step back before they get to be a real contender. They have offensive problems to fix, and people will be gunning for them. Plus they were kinda lucky to get to 9 wins last year in the first place. Sorry, doctor. Sorry, revenge of the curse of Rex Ryan's gut's ghost.

WRONG. I should've bought them. Though they are still the last seed.

Oakland 6.5 - UNDER

A lot of people have them as a surprise team. Their reasoning is that, if they won 5 games with a godawful, absolutely terrible, syrup-addicted idiot at quarterback, they should win 7 or 8 with a mediocre guy. Not a bad idea. But what weapons does he have? He had better talent than this in Washington and couldn't score.

WRONG. Stupid McFadden. I hate you.

Philly 8.5 - OVER

I was going to devote a whole post to what I thought about the hometown boys, but let's just do it here. I will break it down mathematically by groups.

I think splitting the division straight up is a pretty good scenario; all those teams are tough and the Redskins will be extra motivated. 3-3 would be a decent showing. I know people will tell me that they can sweep the Skins, and maybe, but if they screw up that, and one of the Giants or Cowboys games, they can't recover. They go up and down in their matchups; last year they had the Giants pegged but couldn't handle the Cowboys. In other years, it reverses. Every division game is a battle this year and I still think a straight split would be a relief.

They also play everyone from the NFC north. The easy thing to say is that Bears and Lions will be pushovers, while Packers and Vikings will be tough. But the Eagles have struggled in recent years against the Bears, even when they were just ok. Chitown is just one of those teams that give them trouble. I'd like to think they can take care of that now and maybe steal one against the good teams. 2-2 is safe, 3-1 is possible.

Their cross-conference schedule takes them to the AFC south. This is a tough division to pick. Indy is the only guaranteed juggernaut, but Tennessee is usually good. Houston was decent last year and boasts a strong offense. Jacksonville is another odd team that has given the Eagles problems even when they haven't been good. I remember back in 2002, when the Eagles were riding high and a Super Bowl favorite, they went 1-3 against this division, only beating the expansion Texans in their first year. They only lost one more game that whole year, but they struggled vs. these teams. In 2006, they went 1-3 again vs. this division but still made the playoffs. Crazy! So I don't feel entirely safe. Once again, 2-2 is reasonable, 3-1 is possible.

The last two games are the flex games, against one team in each other division in their conference that finished in the same place as them. This year it's San Francisco and Atlanta, two very trendy picks. Although the John Taylors are mostly trendy because everyone else in their division sucks. I'll say splitting these games is a good measure. The Eagles beat both of them last year without much trouble, so that's nice. 1-1 safe, 2-0 if they pull it together.

So what does it all add up to? The brave pick is 10-6. The safe bet is 8-8. I can also see disaster in some places if Kolb gets off to a rough start. I will note that their early schedule is a little easier (Lions and Jags in the first month) and the last month (Cowboys twice, Vikings, Giants) could be brutal. I hope this will let Kolb build up some confidence. It's all about him this year. How he looks not only impacts this year, but also the next five or six. I've got my fingers crossed, CROSSED!

I will go in between and say 9-7. Seems possible. The realist in me says 8-8 is likely. The optimist in me is pretty much dead, but would say 10-6. The Philly fan in me sees 7-9 or worse, chaos in the street, foxes, people getting drunk and lighting things on fire. Let's pray for 9-7.

CORRECT. After all that, it wasn't really that hard.

Pittsburrrgh 9 - OVER

Let's also look at the Steelers by the numbers. People are focused on their first 4 games without Rapey McGropeington. (Rapelisberger? eh. too easy.) It's kind of tough. Tennessee, who knows. Tampa sucks. Baltimore will be tough. Atlanta is tough. Could see a split, could see 1-3 and panic setting in.

With the rest of the year, they have 4 winnable games vs. the state of Ohio, 3 they should take with Raiders, Bills, and Panthers, and 5 tough matchups: Saints, Ravens, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots. So if they take the split early, sweep Browns and Bengals, take care of biz, and go 2-3 in that tough group, that gives them 11 wins. That's not so hard to see. And they might screw up against Cinncy, but they might take one of those tough teams. 9-7 is the low estimate. And even though last year was disastrous, remember that they still won 9 games and missed the playoffs only by tiebreakers. They were still close with all those problems. They've gotten better, and once a hopefully humbled Ben gets back, they should be fine.

CORRECT. You had to figure they'd bounce back.

SDiego 10.5 - OVER

Look guys, it's easy. They win games in the regular season. Especially when their division sucks, which it will again this year. Don't worry about how bad they will choke in the playoffs. This bet is purely for the regular season. They can do that. Easy.

WRONG. Godammit! They always waited until the playoffs to screw it up. Not this year.

SFran 9 - OVER

This is bullshit. Not only do they play in the weakest division, but they have an easy schedule outside of it too. They play the AFC west, which they have to at least split, and the NFC south, which they also should split. Even if they lose a division game, which ain't likely, they could get 9 wins without a sweat. I was hoping that I could find a crack in their confidence and pick someone else. This isn't the first time they've been a buzz team, and the other times they didn't come through..... but they have to now, everyone else is dead. I wish the Eagles had this fucking schedule. They should move to LA just for one year so they can play in the NFC west and I can see them. Seriously, Stev.... you win because there is no one left. Congrats?

WRONG. Singletary rightly was fired if he couldn't get 7 wins with this cupcake schedule.

Seattle 6.5 - OVER

I really wanted to say that they would surprise everyone and overtake the 49ers. They weren't so bad so long ago.... right? Then I heard them being described as the "least talented team overall." Ouch. They have been pretty bad for the past 2 years. I have a wild feeling in the back of my head that with Hasselbeck (with Warner gone, he's technically the best and most accomplished QB in this division) still around, they could make a move. But it doesn't seem likely. Oh yeah, and I don't trust Pete Carroll as an NFL guy. I guess I will give them 7 wins and a minor turnaround.

But if they do make a run.... so help me god....

CORRECT. Possibly the most bizarre turn of events here: I debated whether or not to pick the Seahawks to win the division, I went over just in case, and then they did win the division, but only beat the over by half a game. Welcome to the NFC west.

St. Louis 4.5 - UNDER

They're just bad. A rookie QB without any good receivers isn't helping.

WRONG. They were the big surprise this year. Bradford is looking real nice.

Tampa 6 - UNDER

Their defense is good and will usually be so. The offense sucks, and unlike the Panthers, they don't have stud running backs to rely on.

WRONG. LeGarrette Blount punched my prediciton in the face. Big run for them. Really impressed.

Tennessee 8 - OVER

This is a hard team to figure out. They had almost given up on Vince Young, then he saved them. They usually do better than expected. In Vince's rookie year, they managed to go 8-8 when no one saw it. The next year they made the playoffs when no one liked them that much. The next year they went 13-3. Last year was the first underacheiving year they've had in a while. Jeff Fisher does good work. So I'll take the over basically on that history. As I noticed with the Texans, they get to play the AFC west. As I noticed with the Steelers, they face them without Ben. Hmmm.

WRONG. Jeff Fisher usually does better, but now, I don't know. They started out fine, but then Vince Young and Chris Johnson started having weird things happen.

Washington 7.5 - OVER

8 wins sounds right. They'll be a little better. Too much drama and not enough offense, but better.

WRONG. Mike Shanahan is questioning his own existence right now.

Final tally: 18-14.

That sucks. I got 20 last year, and I was hoping for 24. Maybe some day. Perhaps it's good that I don't have any money to gamble with. I think the whole AFC south and most of the NFC screwed me. To next year!

Fantasy Recap: Regular Season Stars

2010-12-09T10:02:00.003-05:00

I'm quickly going through who were the actual leaders for fantasy points for our regular season.

(player, team, owner)

QB (over 180 pts)

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB (DREW)
2 (tie). Tom Brady, NE (PAUL)
2 (tie). Drew Brees, NO (CHWASTYK)
4 (tie). Philip Rivers, SD (ED)
4 (tie). Michael Vick, PHL (STEV)
4 (tie). Peyton Manning, IND (LEO)
7. Kyle Orton, DEN (DREW)
8. Matt Ryan, ATL (DANNO)
9. Matt Cassel, KC (GREG)
10. Joe Flacco, BAL (RYAN)
11. Eli Manning, NYG (CHRIS)

Notes: There were only 2 points seperating that group from Brady to Vick.... I don't think Drew ever used Kyle Orton more than once... bonus points if you can name all the QB's Muller started...

RB (over 130 points)

1. Arian Foster, HOU (STEV)
2. Adrian Peterson, MIN (STEV)
3. Peyton Hillis, CLE (LEO)
4. LeSean McCoy, PHL (CHRIS)
5. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX (PAUL)
6. Jamaal Charles, KC (LEO)
7 (tie). Chris Johnson, TEN (DANNO)
7 (tie). Michael Turner, ATL (RYAN)
9. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT (DREW)
10. Darren McFadden, OAK (CHWASTYK)
11. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG (KAVAN)
12. Matt Forte, CHI (GREG)
13. Frank Gore, SF (CHRIS)
14. Steven Jackson, STL (ED)
15. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, NE (CHRIS)
16. LaDainian Tomlinson, MYJ (RYAN)
17. Ray Rice, BAL (KAVAN)

Notes: Stev not only had the top 2, but also the only 2 to go over 200 points.... Foster was 50 points better than 3rd place (McCoy) and 100 points better than 12th (Forte)... I know I can't complain because I had 2 in the top ten as well, but I should've had McFadden too and just made a mistake... BenJarvus Green-Ellis may be the worst name of all time.... irony: Muller deliberated keeping DeAngelo Williams but instead took Shonn Greene first and then was elated to get Williams anyway with his second pick; neither finished in the top 35....

WR (over 110 points)

1. Dwayne Bowe, KC (GREG)
2. Brandon Lloyd, DEN (LEO)
3. Calvin Johnson, DET (ED)
4. Greg Jennings, GB (CHRIS)
5. Roddy White, ATL (DANNO)
6. Terrell Owens, CIN (CHWASTYK)
7. Reggie Wayne, IND (KAVAN)
8. Mike Wallace, PIT (DANNO)
9. Steve Johnson, BUF (STEV)
10. Hakeem Nicks, NYG (CHRIS)
11. Andre Johnson, HOU (GREG)
12. Jeremy Maclin, PHL (STEV)
13. Miles Austin, DAL (LEO)
14. DeSean Jackson, PHL (MULLER)
15. Marques Colston, NO (RYAN)
16. Anquan Boldin, BAL (DREW)
17. Mike Williams, TB (ED)
18. Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ (DANNO)

Notes: Bowe was shut out in the only game Greg needed him for.... Steve Johnson is listed on Yahoo as "Stevie" and that's adorable... though they may be equally annoying, TO was actually much better than Ocho this year.... a few people predicted that Maclin would have better stats than DeSean, and they were right...

TE (over 70 points)

1. Antonio Gates, SD (STEV)
2. Vernon Davis, SF (MULLER)
3. Marcedes Lewis, JAX (CHRIS)
4. Jason Witten, DAL (KAVAN)
5. Todd Heap, BAL (KAVAN)
5 (tie). Dustin Keller, NYJ (CHWASTYK)
7 (tie). Tony Gonzalez, ATL (CHWASTYK)
7 (tie). Aaron Hernandez, NE (PAUL)
9 (tie). Chris Cooley, WSH (DREW)
9 (tie). Brandon Pettigrew, DET (RYAN)
9 (tie). Ben Watson, CLE (LEO)

Notes: The hardest position to fill.... 1st place was 40 points better than 2nd and double 12th... it seems there were some trades that could have been made.... Jermichael Finley and Dallas Clark would have been top 5 easily if they didn't get hurt.... where has Brent Celek gone?

KICKER! (over 100 points)

1. David Akers, PHL (STEV)
2. Dan Carpenter, MIA (CHRIS)
3. Matt Bryant, ATL (CHWASTYK)
4. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK (LEO) (i only had him half the year though)
5. Josh Brown, STL (GREG)
6. Nick Folk, NYJ (DREW)
7. Rob Bironas, TEN (MULLER)

If your kicker sucks, don't be afraid to cut him. Plenty of good ones were available, even until the end.

D- FENS

(over 105 points)

1. Green Bay (DANNO)
2. Pittsburgh (MULLER)
3. Chicago (LEO)
4. NY Giants (ED)
5. Tennessee (DREW)
6. Cleveland (KAVAN)
7. San Diego (RYAN) (if anyone)
8. Philly (CHRIS)

Again, if your defense is weak, try moving up. The favorites in this category - Jets, 49ers, and Ravens - were not that amazing. Oakland and Seattle made the top ten. Great real life defenses don't always transfer.

leo week 1 picks

2010-09-12T04:53:00.002-04:00

GB over PHL
MIA over BUF
CHI over DET
TEN over OAK
NE over CIN
NYG over CAR
ATL over PITT
CLE over TB
JAX over DEN
IND over HOU
ARZ over STL
SF over SEA
DAL over WSH
BAL over NYJ
SD over KC

Leo's major predictions for 2010

2010-09-09T04:25:00.001-04:00

After carefully looking through each team and getting an idea of how many games they should win, I now will take my predictions to the posteseason.

In the NFC, I have San Francisco as an easy division winner. I like both Green Bay and Minnesota, and I think the Packers now have a slight edge for the division. I like both Atlanta and New Orleans, and I give the Saints a slight edge. I'm concerned about the East, where all four teams will kill each other. My pickings suggested that the Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys would all be in there. I think Dallas still has the edge - I know their offense will be good, (can't say for sure with the other two) and they have consistently made the playoffs, even if they never win in them. It's tough because I see all these teams winning around 10 games and not much more or less. I have a feeling that the Eagles and Giants will be the odd teams out because their schedules are hard. It's too bad because they're both better than the 49ers. In the playoffs, I forsee upsets by the wild card teams over San Fran and Dallas (which actually shouldn't be so unexpected). I think we're going to have a tasty Packers-Vikings title game, in which Brett Favre's name will be said in vain more than 3000 times. Doesn't this just sound like an appropriate ending? He won't get to throw a crushing late-game interception because Green Bay will win easily.

In the AFC, I have the Colts and Chargers winning their divisions easily again. I like both Pittsburgh and Baltimore a lot. That leaves the East. I am not so high on the Jets as many are. They just don't have the offense. I think the Patriots are at a point where they win divisions, not playoff games, but they score and make it to 10 wins. Miami and Cinncinatti are intriguing, but they face tough divisions and need better passing games. A good passing offense is a must now, not just D. That's why my last pick to make it is Houston. They've been getting a little better each year for the past few years, and their offense is pretty good now. They're the only major sports team to not make the playoffs yet, they are motivated, and their schedule is a little bit easier than these other teams. Again, I know everyone loves the Jets, but I worry about Sanchez in his second year and their ability to score. So I have the Colts, Chargers, Ravens, and Pats as division winners with Steelers and Texans as wild cards. In the playoffs, the Pats, Chargers and Texans will be exposed for their flaws. I like a Colts - Ravens title game, with the Colts advancing because the difference between Manning and Flacco is just too much.

That leaves a Colts - Packers Super Bowl. If it wasn't football, this would be considered a ratings disaster and extremely boring. But the traditional small town team vs. the most popular pitchman in the league will attract people. People will be trying to make comparisons with the Pack and last year's Saints, but the Saints were better. The Packers don't have as many running backs to use or the ridiculous depth at receiver. Aaron Rodgers will be an MVP candidate and will increase his profile dramatically, but he's not quite Brees. The Colts just have too much. Last year, we all tried to think of reasons why they wouldn't make it and they still almost did. This year they have some motivation, they have recievers they trust, and their coaching staff has more to learn from. Plus, they know with a lockout looming, that this could be one of the last great years Manning has left. They don't have as much time. It's safe, it's broing, but this is my pick.

Colts 35, Packers 27

(oh, and first up, since it is early: NO over MIN)

Stev's 2010 over-under predictions

2010-09-07T06:52:00.000-04:00

Arizona 8 -push

Atlanta 9.5 -under

Baltimore 9.5 -over

Buffalo 5.5 -under

Carolina 6.5 -over

Chicago 7.5 -under

Cinnc 8.5 -over

Cleveland 5.5 -under

Dallas 10.5 -over

Denver 7 -push

Detroit 5.5 -under

GBay 9.5 -over

Houston 8.5 -over

Indy 10.5 -over

Jax 6.5 -under

KC 6.5 -under

Miami 8.5 -under

Minnesota 9.5 -under

NEngland 9.5 -over

Nawlins 11 -push

NYGiants 9 -under

NYJets 9.5 -over

Oakland 6.5 -under

Philly 8.5 -over

Pburrrgh 9 -push

SDiego 10.5 -over

SFran 9 -over

Seattle 6.5 -under

St. Louis 4.5 -under

Tampa 6 -under

Tennessee 8 -push

Washington 7.5 -under

Leo's 2010 over-under predictions

2010-09-07T06:40:00.003-04:00

Once again, I have looked up the Vegas odds for the predicted win totals for each NFL team. You can bet over or under their number. You can technically take a push, but I don't like to unless I really think that's where they are, and a lot of people think it's a weak bet. I'm not sure how to handle it, so I included which way I was leanning. Here's my take.....

Arizona 8 - UNDER

Ugly QB is gone. They have no faith in their guys. And Boldin is gone, so Fitzgerlad will be triple teamed mercilessly. I know the division sucks, and I like what Whisenhunt has done, but they're due for a slippage.

Atlanta 9.5 - OVER

They're a trendy pick in the NFC. I thought they would fall back to Earth last year, but they still managed 9 wins. I don't think they're the favorites as many say, but they should get to 10 wins.

Baltimore 9.5 - OVER

Another trendy pick. I like what they've done with adding Boldin and the development of Flacco.

Buffalo 5.5 - UNDER

Eventually, this whole city will commit a mass suicide. Or maybe Cleveland will beat them to it.

Carolina 6.5 - UNDER

They actually weren't that bad last year, but they had no passing game and they still don't. I am tempted, but I don't trust them.

Chicago 7.5 - OVER

I think 8-8 is reasonable. They have some receivers now.

Cinnc 8.5 - UNDER

I didn't take them seriously last year, and they ended up doing good. This year, the division is tough and I have to think/hope they will self-destruct.

Cleveland 5.5 - UNDER

Eventually, this whole city will commit a mass suicide. Or maybe Buffalo will beat them to it.

Dallas 10.5 - UNDER

10.5 is just a little too high. I think 10 is more likely. Their schedule is tough, the division is a nightmare, Wade is a softy, I have to go under.

Denver 7 - PUSH (under if pushes don't count)

They almost proved me wrong last year when I predicted doom for them, then fell apart anyway. But now they have no receivers. But the division sucks. 7 is just about right..... so...... eh...

Detroit 5.5 - UNDER

This seems a little high for them. I do think they are finally on a good track, but still taking baby steps.

GBay 9.5 - OVER

This is easy. They won 11 last year and they're still improving. Uncertainty about the Vikings helps.

Houston 8.5 - OVER

I don't trust them, but I can also see them sneaking into the playoffs this year. 9 wins is tempting.... they do get to play the AFC west.

Indy 10.5 - OVER

They haven't won less than 11 games in quite a long time. I don't see why that stops this year. They keep bringing in guys around Peyton.

Jax 6.5 - UNDER

7 wins sounds about right, but their division is tough and they've been in a funk the past few years.

KC 6.5 - OVER

A minor surprise. I think they can get to 7 or 8 wins. They have some people. I like them better than the Raiders or Broncos, which isn't saying much, but it gets them to second place.

Miami 8.5 - UNDER

They weren't terrible last year after their big surprise season, but they still have question marks.

Minnesota 9.5 - OVER

Two years ago, when they has no passing game of note, they still managed to get 10 wins. So even if Favre finally shows his age and the receivers are hurting, they should be up there. This is a little more risky than I thought it would be....

NEngland 9.5 - OVER

I think they get back to 10 wins. Brady will get better and they always seem to be there.

Nawlins 11 - PUSH (under if no pushes)

I was originally thinking they would have a big letdown. It's not their fault. A lot of good teams have Super Bowl hangovers. But now, after seeing them pick up that great offense where it left off, I think they'll be ok. Still, asking for another 12 or 13 wins is tough. I think they get to 10 or 11.

NYGiants 9 - OVER

This is tough. Things went bad for them and they still got 8-8. They're always lurking. I will pick them and hope I'm wrong. I did notice that their schedule, while obviously similar to Philly's, has Seattle and Carolina as its flex games. Dammit! That's just not fair!

NYJets 9.5 - UNDER

I can see them having a slight step back before they get to be a real contender. They have offensive problems to fix, and people will be gunning for them. Plus they were kinda lucky to get to 9 wins last year in the first place. Sorry, doctor. Sorry, revenge of the curse of Rex Ryan's gut's ghost.

Oakland 6.5 - UNDER

A lot of people have them as a surprise team. Their reasoning is that, if they won 5 games with a godawful, absolutely terrible, syrup-addicted idiot at quarterback, they should win 7 or 8 with a mediocre guy. Not a bad idea. But what weapons does he have? He had better talent than this in Washington and couldn't score.

Philly 8.5 - OVER

I was going to devote a whole post to what I thought about the hometown boys, but let's just do it here. I will break it down mathematically by groups.

I think splitting the division straight up is a pretty good scenario; all those teams are tough and the Redskins will be extra motivated. 3-3 would be a decent showing. I know people will tell me that they can sweep the Skins, and maybe, but if they screw up that, and one of the Giants or Cowboys games, they can't recover. They go up and down in their matchups; last year they had the Giants pegged but couldn't handle the Cowboys. In other years, it reverses. Every division game is a battle this year and I still think a straight split would be a relief.

They also play everyone from the NFC north. The easy thing to say is that Bears and Lions will be pushovers, while Packers and Vikings will be tough. But the Eagles have struggled in recent years against the Bears, even when they were just ok. Chitown is just one of those teams that give them trouble. I'd like to think they can take care of that now and maybe steal one against the good teams. 2-2 is safe, 3-1 is possible.

Their cross-conference schedule takes them to the AFC south. This is a tough division to pick. Indy is the only guaranteed juggernaut, but Tennessee is usually good. Houston was decent last year and boasts a strong offense. Jacksonville is another odd team that has given the Eagles problems even when they haven't been good. I remember back in 2002, when the Eagles were riding high and a Super Bowl favorite, they went 1-3 against this division, only beating the expansion Texans in their first year. They only lost one more game that whole year, but they struggled vs. these teams. In 2006, they went 1-3 again vs. this division but still made the playoffs. Crazy! So I don't feel entirely safe. Once again, 2-2 is reasonable, 3-1 is possible.

The last two games are the flex games, against one team in each other division in their conference that finished in the same place as them. This year it's San Francisco and Atlanta, two very trendy picks. Although the John Taylors are mostly trendy because everyone else in their division sucks. I'll say splitting these games is a good measure. The Eagles beat both of them last year without much trouble, so that's nice. 1-1 safe, 2-0 if they pull it together.

So what does it all add up to? The brave pick is 10-6. The safe bet is 8-8. I can also see disaster in some places if Kolb gets off to a rough start. I will note that their early schedule is a little easier (Lions and Jags in the first month) and the last month (Cowboys twice, Vikings, Giants) could be brutal. I hope this will let Kolb build up some confidence. It's all about him this year. How he looks not only impacts this year, but also the next five or six. I've got my fingers crossed, CROSSED!

I will go in between and say 9-7. Seems possible. The realist in me says 8-8 is likely. The optimist in me is pretty much dead, but would say 10-6. The Philly fan in me sees 7-9 or worse, chaos in the street, foxes, people getting drunk and lighting things on fire. Let's pray for 9-7.

Pittsburrrgh 9 - OVER

Let's also look at the Steelers by the numbers. People are focused on their first 4 games without Rapey McGropeington. (Rapelisberger? eh. too easy.) It's kind of tough. Tennessee, who knows. Tampa sucks. Baltimore will be tough. Atlanta is tough. Could see a split, could see 1-3 and panic setting in.

With the rest of the year, they have 4 winnable games vs. the state of Ohio, 3 they should take with Raiders, Bills, and Panthers, and 5 tough matchups: Saints, Ravens, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots. So if they take the split early, sweep Browns and Bengals, take care of biz, and go 2-3 in that tough group, that gives them 11 wins. That's not so hard to see. And they might screw up against Cinncy, but they might take one of those tough teams. 9-7 is the low estimate. And even though last year was disastrous, remember that they still won 9 games and missed the playoffs only by tiebreakers. They were still close with all those problems. They've gotten better, and once a hopefully humbled Ben gets back, they should be fine.

SDiego 10.5 - OVER

Look guys, it's easy. They win games in the regular season. Especially when their division sucks, which it will again this year. Don't worry about how bad they will choke in the playoffs. This bet is purely for the regular season. They can do that. Easy.

SFran 9 - OVER

This is bullshit. Not only do they play in the weakest division, but they have an easy schedule outside of it too. They play the AFC west, which they have to at least split, and the NFC south, which they also should split. Even if they lose a division game, which ain't likely, they could get 9 wins without a sweat. I was hoping that I could find a crack in their confidence and pick someone else. This isn't the first time they've been a buzz team, and the other times they didn't come through..... but they have to now, everyone else is dead. I wish the Eagles had this fucking schedule. They should move to LA just for one year so they can play in the NFC west and I can see them. Seriously, Stev.... you win because there is no one left. Congrats?

Seattle 6.5 - OVER

I really wanted to say that they would surprise everyone and overtake the 49ers. They weren't so bad so long ago.... right? Then I heard them being described as the "least talented team overall." Ouch. They have been pretty bad for the past 2 years. I have a wild feeling in the back of my head that with Hasselbeck (with Warner gone, he's technically the best and most accomplished QB in this division) still around, they could make a move. But it doesn't seem likely. Oh yeah, and I don't trust Pete Carroll as an NFL guy. I guess I will give them 7 wins and a minor turnaround.

But if they do make a run.... so help me god....

St. Louis 4.5 - UNDER

They're just bad. A rookie QB without any good receivers isn't helping.

Tampa 6 - UNDER

Their defense is good and will usually be so. The offense sucks, and unlike the Panthers, they don't have stud running backs to rely on.

Tennessee 8 - OVER

This is a hard team to figure out. They had almost given up on Vince Young, then he saved them. They usually do better than expected. In Vince's rookie year, they managed to go 8-8 when no one saw it. The next year they made the playoffs when no one liked them that much. The next year they went 13-3. Last year was the first underacheiving year they've had in a while. Jeff Fisher does good work. So I'll take the over basically on that history. As I noticed with the Texans, they get to play the AFC west. As I noticed with the Steelers, they face them without Ben. Hmmm.

Washington 7.5 - OVER

8 wins sounds right. They'll be a little better. Too much drama and not enough offense, but better.

Looking back on last year: was I even close?

2010-08-13T00:44:00.005-04:00

For the past year or two, I've been trying a different approach to my season preview. Instead of trying to pick exact win totals for each team, I've been looking at the official Vegas lines on the over/under for wins and calling it. This is a little easier to pick and keep track of. My goal was 75 % accuracy, or 24 out of 32 teams. I just realized that I still haven't looked to see how I did, and the next season is coming up soon. Let's review...

[what I wrote before last year will be in italics]

Arizona Cardinals - 8.5 - UNDER

Super Bowl hangovers are rough this decade, and for a team that barely won 9 games in a weak division, and has a 50 year old ugly QB....no dice. Is anyone even betting the over for this?

WRONG! Yikes. I thought this was a lock. I forgot how much the rest of the division still really sucked. BTW, Ken Whisenhunt deserves a lot of credit. Two consecutive playoff appearances in Arizona just doesn't happen, let alone a Super Bowl.

Atlanta Falcons - 8.5 - UNDER

They surprised people last year, but their schedule is tougher and people know better. A small part of me thinks they could prove me wrong again, but I'll go under.

WRONG! They barely got it, although they missed the playoffs. They're for real, I guess.

Baltimore Ravens - 8.5 - OVER

They were also a bit of a surprise, but they had a lot of holdovers from really good teams a few years ago. Their defense is still great, and they have a number of running backs, so it won't really matter if Flacco struggles. They'll just go simple like last year.

CORRECT. Not by much, but they made it.

Buffalo Bills - 7.5 - UNDER

They had some promise last year and they still couldn't crack 8 wins. Now they have no Jason Peters (thanks!) and no Marshawn Lynch for a while. Ouch. And if it wasn't obvious enough, no, I'm not thinking that the TO era will end well. Unlike Dallas and Philly, there may not even BE a honeymoon period to have go sour.

CORRECT. This is a really depressing team. I expect nothing from them.

Carolina Panthers - 8.5 - OVER

Why the drop off? They still have talent. Their playoff loss to the Cardinals changed some minds, but they are still a safe bet. Delhomme is a risk, but he played good enough last year, and like Baltimore, they can rely on running and D if they need to.

WRONG! They started off rough and couldn't make it up, though they actually came close. As it turned out, Delhomme's playoff catastrophe the year before was indeed a signal that he was cooked.

Chicago Bears - 8.5 - OVER

Get on the Bear bus! If they won 9 games last year without a QB, shouldn't they be able to do that again with a good one? I don't care if Cutler is immature or a dick or anything; he's way better than anyone they've had since McMahon.... who was a dick and mooned people and still won it all. I like this team. I have to, with Forte as the foundation of my fantasy squad, but really, I think they'll be good.

WRONG! Jesus, I fucked this up. And Forte ruined my fantasy season. Not a good time in Chitown.

Cincinnati Bengals - 6.5 - OVER

A minor surprise here. Some people have the Bengals as a sleeper. Merril Hoge even put them in the playoffs. I doubt that, but I can see them quietly getting 7 or 8 wins and making some strides. Lost in last year's misery was the fact that their defense finally improved. It's their offense that hurts, but they at least have some people for that now.

CORRECT. And they were even better than I thought. HogePodge is a clever guy.

Cleveland Browns - 7 - UNDER

Why do they have a better shot than the Bengals? There are no offensive stars on this team besides Braylon, and he's drop city. They have a QB battle that isn't going well for anyone and no one that I can really name. They'll just have to like basketball again.

CORRECT. Poor Cleveland. You always pick the worst thing to happen to them, because it will. This was too easy. I still don't see why people thought they'd be better than Cinncy.

Dallas Cowboys - 9 - OVER

Dammit. This is why Vegas is smart. They have the Cowboys exactly where I expect them. They've even finished with 9 wins quite a few times recently. I have them at 9 wins, maybe 10, but I hope I'm wrong and it all goes down in flames. I didn't want to go under and then watch them get ho, so I'll go over for a jinx. Honestly, they have the talent, and I like dumping TO (and that stupid bitch... well there's two stupid bitches gone!) and giving more young runners a chance. I can only pray Romo is ready to choke again.

CORRECT. As much as I hate it.

Denver Broncos - 7.5 - UNDER

Sorry guys. You don't give up a franchise QB under the age of 27, even if you don't like his attitude. I didn't expect them to win last year and they almost did. Now, it won't be so easy. They have all sorts of offensive issues and the awful defense hasn't gotten any better. Why did Dawkins have to come here?

WRONG! Technically, I was wrong, but I knew they wouldn't make the playoffs. Even after their hot start, I was cynical. You just don't give up a QB like that. So I will take a loss, but I will emotionally feel a moral victory here.

Detroit Lions - 5 - UNDER

Five wins is a good guess. I'll say 4 because the division is tough. They're getting there, slowly, but they are getting there.

CORRECT. You know you're a shitty franchise when 2-14 is considered a sign of progress.

Green Bay Packers - 9 - UNDER

A lot of people are really excited about Green Bay this year. They went 6-10 last year but the offense looked great and people have excused the defense because of injuries. They went 13-3 the year before.... so... hmmm... I say 8-8 and another year to figure it out.

WRONG! I really screwed up the Packers and Bears. I should've listened to the experts who were mostly right on this.

Houston Texans - 8 - UNDER

Again, right where I would expect them to be. I'd bet under just because the division is tough, they don't have offensive depth, and Schaub has had some injury problems.

WRONG! They were indeed a little better. They might actually make the playoffs soon.

Indianapolis Colts - 10 - OVER

They're a lock to win 10 every year, right? Last year they started slow and still got to 12. I can't see why not.

CORRECT. No matter what they do in the playoffs, they've won at least 11 games for many years in a row.

Jacksonville Jaguars - 8 - UNDER

I think they will come back, but not for a playoff berth. This is a tough call, but they need more receivers. They and Houston could make the playoffs if they got out of the south.

CORRECT. They're just not good enough to hang in this division.

Kansas City Chiefs - 6 - UNDER

They have the makings of an upstart, but after dumping Tony Gonzalez and not picking up another running back to spell LJ (was it really just a few years ago that he was a fantasy stud?), I think they have more rebuilding to do.

CORRECT. They had more rebuilding, but they did find a RB.

Miami Dolphins - 7 - OVER

I think they're going to drop back to Earth this year, but 7 is a big leap. Or is it? I say 8, the division still sucks. Their offense was thought to be dead but it's not that bad. They won't sneak up on anyone, but they won't go back to the cellar.

WASH. For some reason, I thought I won this and the Dolphins still snuck in 8 or 9 wins. Maybe I had them confused with Atlanta. Vegas is good. They always know.

Minnesota Vikings - 9 - OVER

I realize as I write this that I am putting faith in Mecember-ve, not to mention Brad Childress. Ah gawd! But if they can win 10 games with no QB play, a washed up guy can be an improvement. They have the wideouts and AP to carry them, and the defense. They won't go anywhere in the playoffs, but they should be in it.

CORRECT. Indeed, ol' ballslinger was more than enough for them to get 12 wins. And may that be the last time we talk about him for a while.

New England Patriots - 11.5 - UNDER

I think they'll be good again, I just have a hard time saying they will definitely win 12 games. 10 or 11 will still take the division easily and set them up for a playoff run.

CORRECT. And they were worse, and went nowhere in the playoffs. Finally.

New Orleans Saints - 8.5 - OVER

I have lost tons of imaginary money on this team the past few years. I didn't buy their resurgence until it was too late. Last year I thought they'd kill that division and they finished last, albeit with 8-8. With Atlanta and Tampa maybe hurting, and their offense not slowing down anytime soon, it's not hard to see 9 or 10 wins.

CORRECT. Finally! I never get the Saints right. Either I jump on the bandwagon too late or too early. They were a lot better than what I said, but I at least had them in the playoffs.

New York Giants - 10 - OVER

As much as I don't like it, the G Men have become the most reliable team in the NFC. They won 12 games without a receiving core and are working on that. Eli is still a little overrated, but they seem to be a lock now to win 11 games every year.

WORNG! Of course, half the ones I was most confident about failed. They just didn't have it. I don't know where they are now.

New York Jets - 7 - UNDER

Seven wins is right where I see them, but I can take fewer because they have a rookie QB (and he's extra inexperienced) and I can't name any of their receivers besides Cotchery. (And I can only name him because it's unique.)

WRONG! I did not see Sexy Rexy and the rebirth of Jets football coming. Though it should be noted that they only won 9 games (same as the year before, which was seen then as a disappointment) and made the playoffs because of tiebreakers and teams resting starters. But they're good.

Oakland Raiders - 5.5 - UNDER

I was tempted until I realized what always happens here. 6 or 7 wins is possible, but then how are they going to pass? Russell is still raw and they have no receivers. It would be nice if they had a solid front office and coaching... but...... Kiff's dead.

CORRECT. Just barely. I still don't know how they got to 5.

Philadelphia Eagles - 9.5 - OVER

As up and down as they've been, they should get to 10 wins. They really should. They have some purpose with playing for Jim Johnson's memory and their best receiver core in a while. I am cautiously optimistic, which is about as good as I can be with this team anymore.

CORRECT. Well, at least they exceeded my expectations in some capacity.

Pittsburgh Steelers - 10.5 - UNDER

A slight dis, but I have them right at 10 wins. 11 or 12 is certainly possible. There's always a SB hangover, even if minor, that no one besides the Pats have gotten through. They always seem to be an injury away and full of guys who COULD get hurt but don't, so I'll err on the cautious side.

CORRECT. Caution served me well. Though they still got close with all that turmoil.

San Diego Chargers - 9.5 - OVER

They have the most talent. The division sucks. Norv is still shaky, but they should run rampant in the regular season. Playoffs? Who knows. But they can win 13 or 14 games with this sked.

CORRECT. Way too easy. They can always win games in the regular season. Playoffs are another thing, but how could they not tear down that division?

San Francisco 49ers - 7 - OVER

This is a tough call, but I like Singletary and what he's done. I don't know how Crabtree plays out, but they made strides last year and they didn't lose anything. They have some depth on offense in case some of these young guys don't pan out.

CORRECT. They just made it. Samurai Mike has something going.

Seattle Seahawks - 7.5 - OVER

I really like them to win the division. They had a ton of injuries last year and couldn't get it together, but now, they are strong. They have the most talent and balance in the division.

WRONG! Ooof. Big miss. I thought they'd bounce back, but they were done. I don't know if Pete Carroll knows what he's getting into.

St. Louis Rams - 5.5 - UNDER

Some people are calling them a sleeper. I'm calling them a team with only two offensive players who can do anything and are hurt all the time. And no D. It would be a repeat miracle of their dream season ten years ago for them to do anything. Miracles don't repeat. I think.

CORRECT. Who the fuck was calling them a sleeper? They're terrible.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6.5 - UNDER

They really aren't that bad, and were almost in the playoffs last year, but a new QB and a drastically different coaching change just take time.

CORRECT. They're going to take a lot of time to get better.

Tennessee Titans - 9 - OVER

They don't look special, but they didn't last year, and they won 13 games. They have a solid D and running foundation, and that should be good for 10 wins. Jeff Fisher is always worth the over. He's done better than expected every year.

WRONG! Fisher finally had a down year.

Washington Redskins - 8 - UNDER

Seven wins sounds right, even if I can see them going to 9 and sneaking in the playoffs. I don't like the way they dissed Jason Campbell.

CORRECT. They were much worse. Campbell is gone.

hmmm... seems like I missed a lot....

Final tally = 20 out of 32 correct, 62.5 percent. Not what I wanted, but good. A nice bar for me to set.

McNabbed

2010-04-05T06:46:00.002-04:00

A friend asked me if I could explain the reasoning behind the McNabb trade. Will I storm the front office? Why would they do that? Is their offense dead?

I am disappointed. No one I know is really that in love with Kolb, and even those who have been killing McNabb for the past few years are a bit puzzled. I hear the people saying McNabb has to go, but I don't hear the people saying this is a great move.

But can I explain it?

Sure.

It doesn't make football sense, but it makes business sense. I think it came down to 2 things: money (McNabb has a big extension, but why did they give it to him if they weren't sure? not a great decision) and not wanting to look stupid/waste draft picks. See, in the Green Bay case, as was in San Diego (with Rivers-Brees), they had both spent a lot of money on a high draft pick for a QB and they didn't want to waste it. If you spend a first round pick on a quarterback, you better damn hope he pans out or else your draft record is going to take a hit and all your cap space is wasted on a guy who does nothing. That's why San Diego let Brees go even after he finally came through for them. They had just spent a lot on Rivers, and they couldn't have both. In both cases, they were fine. I also think Cincinnati had a similar decision back in the day with letting go of Kitna after he had a decent year in favor of getting Carson Palmer reps. In all those cases, the young guy won out, not always because they thought he was better, but because he HAD to. They were spending too much money and had invested time and a pick into them, and to let them sit on the bench would just be too much of a waste.

In this case, it is a little different. Kolb is not making that much money and was not a first round pick, but he was a high second round pick, in a draft where they didn't have a first. So he's important to them. Not playing him would mean that Reid, supposed quarterback guru, failed with a high pick, and he would look bad. The money issue is almost the opposite - McNabb is making all the money while Kolb is still inexpensive. They save a lot by getting rid of him. I know they've got money, and they've already cut a lot of people, but it will still be a big cap relief. Why they wanted to do this when they're still contending is questionable, but if they are making a lot of changes, they want to have fexibility.

I was going to say that this is a pretty decent receiving core, but I don't know. Maclin showed good promise last year, but Curtis and Brown were disappointments. Avant and the return of Lotion Baskett don't really mean much. But it's something. It's a fairly good offense to have in the NFC, and they scored a lot last year.

But you're right, I am pissed because I thought they had one more year to give McNabb (and Reid) a shot. After next year, there will be a new collective bargaining agreement, possibly a strike, and many changes in how teams work. I wanted to give them one last chance, given that this is probably the best offense McNabb has had since the SB year. This effectively kills them, although anything can happen. The real problem is that once they started seriously shopping McNabb, they pretty much had to make a deal or it would be super awkward next year. They could have been more discreet about it.

Look, this franchise has a plan where they don't want to keep veterans around longer than they have to. They constantly want to have draft picks and young guys coming in to replace them. It's made for some sad goodbyes - Westbrook this year, Dawkins last, Trotter and Hugh Douglas in years past. Most of the time, the front office was correct - most of these guys are washed up. I don't believe McNabb is, and I thought he was the one guy they would hold on to until the end... but this basically fits their pattern. It's a major shift, but it does. So I hope that explains it, although it doesn't make me feel any better.

week pik six

2009-10-17T23:41:00.000-04:00

CIN over HOU
GB over DET
BAL over MIN
NYG over NO
PIT over CLE
CAR over TB
WSH over KC
JAX over STL
ARZ over SEA
PHL over OAK
NE over TEN
NYJ over BUF
CHI over ATL
SD over DEN

leo week cinco (but not ocho) picks

2009-10-11T04:38:00.002-04:00

BUF over CLE
PIT over DET
DAL over KC
MIN over STL
NYG over OAK
PHL over TB
CAR over WSH
BAL over CIN
SF over ATL
SEA over JAX
HOU over ARZ
NE over DEN
IND over TEN
NYJ over MIA

leo week forte picks

2009-10-04T05:27:00.003-04:00

NE over BAL (yes, i am still giving them the benefit of the dobut)
WSH over TB (though I will laugh my ass off....)
TEN over JAX
HOU over OAK
CHI over DET
CIN over CLE
IND over SEA
NYG over KC
NO over NYJ
MIA over BUF
DAL over DEN
SF over STL
PIT over SD
MIN over GB (i have to admit, it will be fun)

leo week threve picks

2009-09-27T02:18:00.002-04:00

WSH over DET
GB over STL
MIN over SF
NE over ATL
TEN over NYJ
PHL over KC (please god...)
NYG over TB
BAL over CLE
JAX over HOU
CHI over SEA
NO over BUF
PIT over CIN
OAK over DEN
IND over ARZ
DAL over CAR

...umm yeah

2009-09-13T17:43:00.001-04:00

OK, staring next week, I'll post picks. Stupid having to move on opening day. I didn't plan that well.

Leo's Season Preview '09

2009-09-10T04:49:00.004-04:00

I always do a season preview, but this year I thought I'd change it up a little bit. I've noticed that Vegas oddsmakers are always pretty good at predicting things. That's why they make so much cash. I was looking at their odds for the season, and they usually know right where to go. So, this year, I'm going to post the over/under (predicted number of wins) for every team in wins, and then call it. I'd like to invite you to try this as well; it's more fun than trying to guess wins on your own.

[I started this before week one and I had my projections, but I couldn't get it out in time. I swear this is what I picked.]

Arizona Cardinals - 8.5 - UNDER

Super Bowl hangovers are rough this decade, and for a team that barely won 9 games in a weak division, and has a 50 year old ugly QB....no dice. Is anyone even betting the over for this?

Atlanta Falcons - 8.5 - UNDER

They surprised people last year, but their schedule is tougher and people know better. A small part of me thinks they could prove me wrong again, but I'll go under.

Baltimore Ravens - 8.5 - OVER

They were also a bit of a surprise, but they had a lot of holdovers from really good teams a few years ago. Their defense is still great, and they have a number of running backs, so it won't really matter if Flacco struggles. They'll just go simple like last year.

Buffalo Bills - 7.5 - UNDER

They had some promise last year and they still couldn't crack 8 wins. Now they have no Jason Peters (thanks!) and no Marshawn Lynch for a while. Ouch. And if it wasn't obvious enough, no, I'm not thinking that the TO era will end well. Unlike Dallas and Philly, there may not even BE a honeymoon period to have go sour.

Carolina Panthers - 8.5 - OVER

Why the drop off? They still have talent. Their playoff loss to the Cardinals changed some minds, but they are still a safe bet. Delhomme is a risk, but he played good enough last year, and like Baltimore, they can rely on running and D if they need to.

[See? You know I didn't post this after week one. ]

Chicago Bears - 8.5 - OVER

Get on the Bear bus! If they won 9 games last year without a QB, shouldn't they be able to do that again with a good one? I don't care if Cutler is immature or a dick or anything; he's way better than anyone they've had since McMahon.... who was a dick and mooned people and still won it all. I like this team. I have to, with Forte as the foundation of my fantasy squad, but really, I think they'll be good.

Cincinnati Bengals - 6.5 - OVER

A minor surprise here. Some people have the Bengals as a sleeper. Merril Hoge even put them in the playoffs. I doubt that, but I can see them quietly getting 7 or 8 wins and making some strides. Lost in last year's misery was the fact that their defense finally improved. It's their offense that hurts, but they at least have some people for that now.

Cleveland Browns - 7 - UNDER

Why do they have a better shot than the Bengals? There are no offensive stars on this team besides Braylon, and he's drop city. They have a QB battle that isn't going well for anyone and no one that I can really name. They'll just have to like basketball again.

Dallas Cowboys - 9 - OVER

Dammit. This is why Vegas is smart. They have the Cowboys exactly where I expect them. They've even finished with 9 wins quite a few times recently. I have them at 9 wins, maybe 10, but I hope I'm wrong and it all goes down in flames. I didn't want to go under and then watch them get ho, so I'll go over for a jinx. Honestly, they have the talent, and I like dumping TO (and that stupid bitch... well there's two stupid bitches gone!) and giving more young runners a chance. I can only pray Romo is ready to choke again.

Denver Broncos - 7.5 - UNDER

Sorry guys. You don't give up a franchise QB under the age of 27, even if you don't like his attitude. I didn't expect them to win last year and they almost did. Now, it won't be so easy. They have all sorts of offensive issues and the awful defense hasn't gotten any better. Why did Dawkins have to come here?

Detroit Lions - 5 - UNDER

Five wins is a good guess. I'll say 4 because the division is tough. They're getting there, slowly, but they are getting there.

Green Bay Packers - 9 - UNDER

A lot of people are really excited about Green Bay this year. They went 6-10 last year but the offense looked great and people have excused the defense because of injuries. They went 13-3 the year before.... so... hmmm... I say 8-8 and another year to figure it out.

Houston Texans - 8 - UNDER

Again, right where I would expect them to be. I'd bet under just because the division is tough, they don't have offensive depth, and Schaub has had some injury problems.

Indianapolis Colts - 10 - OVER

They're a lock to win 10 every year, right? Last year they started slow and still got to 12. I can't see why not.

Jacksonville Jaguars - 8 - UNDER

I think they will come back, but not for a playoff berth. This is a tough call, but they need more receivers. They and Houston could make the playoffs if they got out of the south.

Kansas City Chiefs - 6 - UNDER

They have the makings of an upstart, but after dumping Tony Gonzalez and not picking up another running back to spell LJ (was it really just a few years ago that he was a fantasy stud?), I think they have more rebuilding to do.

Miami Dolphins - 7 - OVER

I think they're going to drop back to Earth this year, but 7 is a big leap. Or is it? I say 8, the division still sucks. Their offense was thought to be dead but it's not that bad. They won't sneak up on anyone, but they won't go back to the cellar.

Minnesota Vikings - 9 - OVER

I realize as I write this that I am putting faith in Mecember-ve, not to mention Brad Childress. Ah gawd! But if they can win 10 games with no QB play, a washed up guy can be an improvement. They have the wideouts and AP to carry them, and the defense. They won't go anywhere in the playoffs, but they should be in it.

New England Patriots - 11.5 - UNDER

I think they'll be good again, I just have a hard time saying they will definitely win 12 games. 10 or 11 will still take the division easily and set them up for a playoff run.

New Orleans Saints - 8.5 - OVER

I have lost tons of imaginary money on this team the past few years. I didn't buy their resurgence until it was too late. Last year I thought they'd kill that division and they finished last, albeit with 8-8. With Atlanta and Tampa maybe hurting, and their offense not slowing down anytime soon, it's not hard to see 9 or 10 wins.

New York Giants - 10 - OVER

As much as I don't like it, the G Men have become the most reliable team in the NFC. They won 12 games without a receiving core and are working on that. Eli is still a little overrated, but they seem to be a lock now to win 11 games every year.

New York Jets - 7 - UNDER

Seven wins is right where I see them, but I can take fewer because they have a rookie QB (and he's extra inexperienced) and I can't name any of their receivers besides Cotchery. (And I can only name him because it's unique.)

Oakland Raiders - 5.5 - UNDER

I was tempted until I realized what always happens here. 6 or 7 wins is possible, but then how are they going to pass? Russell is still raw and they have no receivers. It would be nice if they had a solid front office and coaching... but...

... Kiff's dead.

Philadelphia Eagles - 9.5 - OVER

As up and down as they've been, they should get to 10 wins. They really should. They have some purpose with playing for Jim Johnson's memory and their best receiver core in a while. I am cautiously optimistic, which is about as good as I can be with this team anymore.

Pittsburgh Steelers - 10.5 - UNDER

A slight dis, but I have them right at 10 wins. 11 or 12 is certainly possible. There's always a SB hangover, even if minor, that no one besides the Pats have gotten through. They always seem to be an injury away and full of guys who COULD get hurt but don't, so I'll err on the cautious side.

San Diego Chargers - 9.5 - OVER

They have the most talent. The division sucks. Norv is still shaky, but they should run rampant in the regular season. Playoffs? Who knows. But they can win 13 or 14 games with this sked.

San Francisco 49ers - 7 - OVER

This is a tough call, but I like Singletary and what he's done. I don't know how Crabtree plays out, but they made strides last year and they didn't lose anything. They have some depth on offense in case some of these young guys don't pan out.

Seattle Seahawks - 7.5 - OVER

I really like them to win the division. They had a ton of injuries last year and couldn't get it together, but now, they are strong. They have the most talent and balance in the division.

St. Louis Rams - 5.5 - UNDER

Some people are calling them a sleeper. I'm calling them a team with only two offensive players who can do anything and are hurt all the time. And no D. It would be a repeat miracle of their dream season ten years ago for them to do anything. Miracles don't repeat. I think.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6.5 - UNDER

They really aren't that bad, and were almost in the playoffs last year, but a new QB and a drastically different coaching change just take time.

Tennessee Titans - 9 - OVER

They don't look special, but they didn't last year, and they won 13 games. They have a solid D and running foundation, and that should be good for 10 wins. Jeff Fisher is always worth the over. He's done better than expected every year.

Washington Redskins - 8 - UNDER

Seven wins sounds right, even if I can see them going to 9 and sneaking in the playoffs. I don't like the way they dissed Jason Campbell.

-----------------------

That does it for regular season predictions. As for playoffs, the Colts, Patriots, and Chargers are the three teams overwhelmingly picked to win the big one. I like the Colts and I don't know why. As for the NFC, my cautious optimism is too cautious for me to say anything, but I feel pretty good. There are a lot of tough teams to worry about. What am I feeling.... how about....

Colts over Giants. That's right, a Manning vs. Manning bowl. Just shoot me in the face now.

And you thought this blog was DEAD....

2009-08-13T21:32:00.002-04:00

This is the time to wake that s up!

I was going to write a lengthy piece on Michael Vick, but then I had to work a lot and get ready to move, so I never did. Let's just say that I am approaching this with caution. I think he should be allowed to play and I don't harbor any resentment for his playing on a personal note, just to clarify. My concerns are all on the field. I don't know that I want him playing QB for an extended period of time; he was never that great in a pass-heavy system like the Eagles use. I guess they can simplify things and use him as they would another backup, and they will certainly use him in some trick plays and weird formations, but is that enough for all the trouble he brings? By trouble I mean that the press will make him a big story when it's not and it will be a distraction, not that he will screw up. I think he'll be on the straight and narrow. I just worry about the attention.

I don't know if it is worth the money and the roster spot for a guy who may not do anything in every game, and I liked A. J. Feeley as the steady backup in case McNabb got hurt (I still want to see more on Kolb, but that's going to have to wait). Now that he's gone, you have to believe that the Eagles will throw Vick out there if they need a QB, and that worries me a little. If their reciever corps was terrible, I might like him as a slot wideout / specialist for a few plays, but they have finally got that position back up to par. I don't know. I just don't know.

Anyway, I'm going to have a season preview soon, just like I always did. I am going to post picks every week, again, as is my usual. This is the first year in a while that I'm not in a serious competition for picking winners, but if you guys want to do something for free, I'm going to post as those it means something. For posterity, and the good of the TNTGFAS nation.

Up first: PIT over TEN

The Super Bowl teams this decade...

2009-01-19T04:54:00.002-05:00

...are as follows:

AFC - Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Raiders.

NFC - Rams, Buccaneers, Panthers, Eagles, Seahawks, Bears, Giants, and Cardinals.

What does this mean? I don't know. Perhaps parity has brought down the older half of the league.

Maybe the NFC is just wacky. Maybe we shouldn't be so surprised.

... still not helping.

10 weeks in...

2008-11-14T03:15:00.001-05:00

.. and I'm hurting.

Patriots over Saints? Awful.

JL 2008 NFL preview

2008-09-06T08:50:00.001-04:00

I know I'm one game behind, but here are my picks for the 2008 season:

AFC EAST

Patriots 13-3
Bills 8-8
Jets 8-8
Dolphins 2-14

I didn't think any team had a chance of doing well besides the Pats, but the Bills and Jets have decent schedules. They can fight it out for a playoff spot if they work in their Qb's.

The Dolphins, once again, can suck it.

AFC NORTH

Steelers 10-6
Browns 8-8
Bengals 4-12
Ravens 3-13

Everyone in this division has a brutal schedule. The Steelers are, to me, pretty strong, but they might just wear down. I don't think the Browns were a fluke, and I like their direction, but they're in way over their heads this year. Some people see Baltimore as a sleeper, but how are they going to score? Cinncy has the opposite problem. I'm excited for Ocho Cinco, though. I love seeing his name on official reports.

AFC SOUTH

Jags 12-4
Colts 11-5
Titans 9-7
Texans 7-9

This might be the best division. Jacksonville is a big favorite for a lot of people. The Colts have a tough schedule and Manning is a little hurt, so they will drop, but they can still win 10 games. Tennessee seems to do better than I always think, so I give them the last playoff spot. They do play the Jets and Browns. Houston is getting better, but not quite there yet.

AFC WEST

Chargers 12-4
Broncos 7-9
Raiders 4-12
Chiefs 3-13

The Chargers won't even have to break a sweat in their division games. I'm not even that high on Denver, but they have a lot of easy games. The old Raiders-Chiefs battles are going to be extra ugly this year.

NFC EAST

Cowboys 11-5
Eagles 10-6
Giants 9-7
Redskins 7-9

Everyone loves the Cowboys. I need to find something wrong. I'm going to hope they self-destruct at some point. Their schedule is a lot harder, but they should win this division. I will go on a longer rant about the Iggs at some point, but this looks like another 10 win year for them. Some experts really like them.... a few think they could miss the playoffs... it's tough. I look at the sked and I think 9-11 wins are completely reasonable. The 'Skins aren't terrible, but they keep making too many changes.

NFC NORTH

Packers 9-7
Vikings 8-8
Bears 4-12
Lions 3-13

This will be a fascinating division race because the Packers and Vikings are basically the same team: inexperienced QB, questionable passing game, solid defense and running. I give the Packers a slight edge in talent, plus I think Rodgers will be okay. I'm still not sure about Tavaris Jackson. Alas, ye Bears and Lions; the sidewalk is your pillow yet again.

NFC SOUTH

Saints 12-4
Bucs 9-7
Panthers 8-8
Falcons 3-13

I really like the Saints this year. Their D might be suspect, but their offense is spectacular and their schedule is not too tough. That also helps the Bucs and Panthers. Carolina scares me. I'm done picking them for great things. Atlanta... sorry.

NFC WEST

Seahawks 10-6
Cardinals 7-9
Rams 3-13
49ers 2-14

This is the other bad West. Seattle should be slipping soon, but they just have no challengers. Arizona is still trying to drag Leinart along, but he just isn't working. The Rams are shells of their former selves. The John Taylors are still a mess.

AFC PLAYOFFS

SD over TEN
IND over PIT

JAX over SD
NE over IND

C: NE def JAX

NFC PLAYOFFS

NYG over SEA
PHL over GB

NO over NYG
DAL over PHL

C: NO def DAL

SUPER BOWL XLIII

Patriots 38, Saints 33

Yeah, I know, I don't like this either. I can't find anyone to take down the Pats. They're older, but they still have talent and focus. The Jags and Chargers might challenge, but I don't know about their coaches, and they have flaws on offense. The NFC as a whole is weaker. Anything can happen in the big game, but... every NFC team is flawed, even Dallas. New Orleans has the best O and they can get the best record, which would be big. I can see every team besides the Bears-Rams-Niners-Falcons-Lions mess fighting for playoff spots. This also makes me feel better about Philly: they're not great, but I look at everyone else and say, "Why not them?" I won't pick them, though. I'm cautious. I will pick the Pats and hope my bad luck carries again.

Once again, the possibility of a Pats-Cowboys SB terrifies me. I would have to root for a re-enactment of The Sum of All Fears. Please don't let it happen.

ummmmm

2008-02-11T05:03:00.001-05:00

...if anyone is still reading this, I was wrong.

suck.

2008-01-31T15:49:00.000-05:00

Pats 34, Giants 23

It should be a blow out, but Giants can move the ball, and Pats have never asserted themselves in the SB. They've let people hang around before finally sealing the deal. They might even let the Jints get within 3.... but they're not losing this.

Cue Ryan: Whaddaya, pissed?

Yeah, actually I am, because Favre making it would be a better story and I know people are going to be sucked into this game when the Giants hang around. Look, it doesn't matter what the score is... they will NOT win it. Bellichick is not going to be outdone by Coughlin. Eli has been great the past few weeks, but even if the Pats aren't superior on D anymore, they're still much better than anyone in the NFC. I know when it's close at halftime, everyone will be selling themselves on the upset belief .... and it won't matter.

In fact, I have little or no interest anymore.

really?

2008-01-21T01:43:00.001-05:00

the giants?

is this the best the NFC can do?

way to ruin your "great" story, favre. this super bowl sucks.

part deux playioffs

2008-01-11T16:46:00.000-05:00

Watch out, NFC. This is the week it happens...

NYG over DAL
SEA over GB

Suck it.

NE over JAX
IND over SD

Not as suprising. Not at all. But this rematch is so necessary.

playoffs? PLAYOFFS?

2008-01-04T12:42:00.000-05:00

I guess I'll make playoff picks, even though it doesn't matter. My SB preseason pick of Patriots over Seahawks is still alive... and you know what? I'll stick with it. I don't trust the Cowboys or Packers enough.

For this week:

JAX over PIT (too much trouble right now for Steelers)
SD over TEN (hard to tell who shows up)

TB over NYG (eli in the playoffs? no dice)
SEA over WSH (skins are hot, but hawks have balance)

last week to dance

2007-12-28T18:08:00.001-05:00

NE over NYG (ughhhh)
MIA over CIN (something inspires them)
PHI over BUF (they're playing great... but too late)
CLE over SF (but will it matter?)
SEA over ATL (even seattle's second team is better)
GB over DET (lions are inept)
CAR over TB (tampa has nothing to play for and already sat people)
HOU over JAX (jags will rest people)
NO over CHI (saints have a little hope at least)
WSH over DAL (inspired skins vs. cowboys sitting everyone)
NYJ over KC (man, chiefs suck)
MIN over DEN (minnesota has way more hope)
PIT over BAL (steelers do have a little inspiration.... don't want to face jax).....
SD over OAK (....but chargers don't want jax either)
ARZ over STL (arizona isn't horrible)
TEN over IND (i feel bad for cleveland... indy isn't even trying)

fantasy recap

2007-12-27T23:36:00.000-05:00

The first annual They Need To Go For a Safety fantasy league concluded last week. The final winner, in both season standings and playoffs, was Mr. Stev Lipenta.

Congrats. Here's your trophy:

(gotta have the Macho hink)

The first season was a rousing success, for the most part. I was a little worried about the rookies to fantasy football picking up the nuances, but they all came through (unless they didn't try at all). In fact, I think the three most active participants were all relative newbies to this whole thing.

A team by team recap of league happenings:

1. Pennsuaken Taylors - Stev won the league title and the playoffs with a balanced attack, and bringing in solid running backs after his top three picks had problems. He also scored big by getting the unlikable duo of Romo and TO... so congrats, Stev, you won by taking two people everyone else hated way to much to take at a decent time. I hope you're happy.

2. Alta Loma 79ers - I'm not entirely sure how I finished second in league standings and playoffs. My team was okay, but not spectacular. The best thing I did was picking up Adrian Peterson in a late round. He carried them at points, and he could carry a pitiful offense to the playoffs in real life. Fuck Brady - that's worth an MVP to me.

And Jay Cutler, you are dead to me. Eli, you're not much better.

3. Phyllis Diller - Danno came through after a subpar season to finish third in the playoffs and cement that all the people who actively participate in this blog also finish in the top three. Nicely done. Willie Parker turned out to be more than a hometown favorite, and gambling on Randy Moss really paid off.

4. Team Discovery Channel - I had sweet revenge over Drewber's team in the playoffs because he had the team I wanted. And he finished first in points during the season, so he might have had the best team overall. Westbrook, Brees, Gates - I wanted them all. And he scooped them up just a few picks before me. Biggest move - picking up Derek Anderson, which looked at first like a knee-jerk reaction, but ended up carrying him to the points title.

5. The Gravediggers - proving himself wrong, Paul did not finish last. His top two picks suffered, but he came through to get some wins. See, anything can happen.

6. Undercover Busboys - Kevner had the first pick and used LDT to get a decent showing. He also picked up the everyday process of running a fantasy team, despite having little knowledge of football fantasy works. He just missed out on a few games and could have finished higher with some luck.

7. Clown Clergy - the Doctor decided to take chances and swing for the fences, considering there was no money involved. Didn't work. Next year, we hope that effort changes.

8. Kant's Kraftwerks - Dom decided to not make any changes... at all. Too bad, because he had one of the best teams. He had the best QB duo and then had Favre on the bench, whom he could have traded for a big back. He won some games with just 6 active people. Alas. He could have won the league of his two backs didn't get hurt and he participated.

I'm looking forward to next year. This is just the beginning of hopefully a long tradition of league play. We will have an incentive, smaller rosters, and maybe some new members. All bets are off... or on.

rest of week 16 candles

2007-12-23T06:21:00.000-05:00

You may be wondering, Mr. Pennsauken, why I went with Jay Cutler over Eli Manning at the last minute. It's all part of the plan. Don't let it worry you too much.

(Ambigous Psych Outs Galore!)

JAX over OAK
DET over KC (no faith in either)
INd over HOU
NO over PHl (no jinx, saints just have much more to play for)
GB over CHI
CLE over CIN
ARZ over ATL
TB over SF/PENN/ LUCKY TO HAVE THE FALCONS AND DOLPHINS
TEN over NYJ
NE over MIA (though I'd laugh my arse off)
SEA over BAL
MIN over WSH (intriguing)
NYG over BUF (nothing makes me feel good about this)
SD over DEN (ok as long as Cutler throws some deep)

that's enough, nfl network

2007-12-20T06:54:00.001-05:00

You mean my mom can't watch the Steelers tonight? Ouch. You're in for trouble.

PIT over STL

DAL over CAR

week quinciera (i think thats 15)

2007-12-15T22:52:00.000-05:00

NO over ARZ
TB over ATL
BAL over MIA
CLE over BUF
GB over STL
PIT over JAX
NE over NYJ
SEA over CAR
TEN over KC
IND over OAK
SD over DET
DAL over PHL
NYG over WSH
MIN over CHI

denver, i hate you. cinncy, what the hell? you couldn't stop a third string qb??? gawd.

early pickins

2007-12-13T04:30:00.000-05:00

So I kinda understand a Thursday game late in the season, but a Saturday? When it's not even the holiday weekend or anything? I know the college games are over, except for bowls, which can be any night, but still.... a lot of people are in their fantasy playoffs right now (cough...ahem) and they might catch that Thursday game, but will they remember Saturday?

I did.... but I worry for you, America.

DEN over HOU

CIN over SFAILURES (way to give the Pats a nice pick next year, jerks.)

week 14 days of (= hannukah + half days of giving of christmas)

2007-12-09T01:07:00.000-05:00

DAL over DET
BUF over MIA
NYG over PHL
TEN over SD
JAX over CAR
CIN over STL
GB over OAK
NE over PiT
TB over HOU
ARZ over SEA
MIN over SF
CLE over NYJ
DEN over KC
IND over BAL
NO over ATL

I'm not couting WSH vs. CHI. I don't even remember who I would have picked. Unless I sent you gusy an email, which I can't find now.

Also, unless I change this before then, let's say DEN over HOU for next week so I don't forget. If anyone gets hurt, I'll try to refine that.

week 13 ghosts with F MURRAY ABRAHAM!!!

2007-12-02T04:25:00.000-05:00

By the way, for my two cents on college football: you know who should win the national title this year?

NOBODY!

Sorry, kids, but no matter how much you tweak the system, it doesn't work if nobody qualifies. They should hand the trophy to Auburn for a couple years ago, when they were undefeated and couldn't even get in the big game. No one deserves it now.

onto the pros....

already noted DAl over GB

TEN over HOU
IND over JAX
SD over KC
STL over ATL
NYJ over MIA
DET over MIN
SEA over PHL
WSH over BUF
CAR over SF
CLE over ARZ
DEN over OAK
NYG over CHI
NO over TB
PIT over CIN
NE over BAL

gah

2007-11-29T15:46:00.000-05:00

Should I be happy that the Eagles almost dereailed the mighty Pats train, when I thought they might lose by 30, or be pissed that they still blew it again in the last quarter???

And could you say the opposite of that statement for the Steelers?

I suppose wins and losses are just those, no matter how pretty or ugly they are.

(I have to say, I loved it when that punt on Monday landed in the ground and didn't move AT ALL. That's a first for me in 20 plus years of watching football in all elements. I watched that clip maybe 30 times this week.)

(And I'm sure Danno loved every minute of it.)

Oh, and for tonight, since there is a big Thursday game (and no one can see it.... cable companies are increasingly part of the problems with media), I'll pick. Dallas wins, primarily because they do well at home. I think.

turducken picks, week 12

2007-11-25T05:32:00.000-05:00

i already got 2 of 3... as i presented before the date.....

IND over ATL
DET over GB (i was feeling it, but they weren't... they have sinned)
DAL over NYJ

now for sunday...

TEN over CIN
CLE over HOU
KC over OAK
SEA over STL
NYG over MIN
TB over WSH
NO over CAR
JAX over BUF
ARZ over SFAILURES WITH A BEAUTIFUL CITY THEY DON'T DESERVE
DEN over CHI
SD over BAL
NE over PHL (does it matter who is qb?)
PIT over SUCK ITS (don't blow this...)

week not stevin 11

2007-11-18T06:25:00.000-05:00

OAK over MIN (no Peterson)
PHL over MIA (no way)
SD over JAX (no run d)
CLE over BAL (no, baltimore, it's over)
NO over HOU (no more bush-williams talk)
TB over ATL (no qbs)
CIN over ARZ (no beards)
NYG over DET (no Calvin)
GB over CAR (no qb under 40)
IND over KC (no LJ)
PIT over NYJ (no chance, doctor)
STL over SF (no anything for niners)
SEA over CHI (no stable qb)
DAL over WSH (no Moss)
NE over BUF (no chance)
TEN over DEN (no Henry)

week The Ten with PAUL RUDD! JESSICA ALBA! MEMREMRERERE!

2007-11-11T08:00:00.000-05:00

(last bye week, fyi)

BUF over MIA
NO over STL
PIT over CLE
PHL over WESH (even when they're bad, they always split with skins)
GB over MIN
CAR over ATL
TEN over JAX
DEN over KC
BAL over CIN
NYG over DAL
ARZ over DET
CHI over OAK
IND over SD
SEA over SF Failure-Niners

Midseason Ranterback

2007-11-07T23:03:00.000-05:00

Yes, comrades, we're halfway through the season already. Most team have 8 games under their belt, even a few have 9 (but they're off this week). Some have surprised and some have disappointed. Some have done both (New Orleans, which continues to haunt me).

I know I made a bunch of pre-season predictions, but here are my updated ones:

1. Dallas is going to win the division and have the best record in the NFC. I know, I hate it, but they're way above the rest of the NFC offensively. No late-season turmoil in the NFC east this year.

2. Green Bay is going to cool down a little, but will be the sentimental favorite going into the playoffs.

3. Seattle will win the NFC west with 9 wins. Meh. They've done it before. They will then shock the Cowboys in the playoffs again.

4. Detroit and the Giants will make the playoffs, making me look downright retarded, but they aren't going anywhere.

5. New Orleans will win their division with surprising ease and upset Green Bay, then shock Seattle to reach the Super Bowl. Why? They look like a team that's figured it out and will make a run in the second half. Those teams are always dangerous.

6. We all know whom experts see as the top two teams in the AFC (and in what order), but Pittsburgh is a solid number three and will prevent a New England-Indy rematch from happening.

7. But no Blitzburgh Super Bowl. I just hope they got some ideas from the Colts almost beating the Pats. As I do everyone else....

8. San Diego will win the AFC west with 9 games, but no playoff success. They should fire Norv, but will be too embarassed about the whole Marty thing to react.

9. Cleveland and Tennesee will win wild cards, once again proving me stupid. Jacksonville will get close but no Garrard will cost them soon.

10. New England kills Nawlins in Flanuary. I hope not, but that's my call.

Oh, and Philly will go 6-10 and people will call for Reid to step down. Big surprise....

As for me? I think I've reached my breaking point here. I hate to jump on the blame-the-coach bandwagon as unreasonable fans are wont to do, but seriously, this team is dead. They have no life. Their playcalling has fallen off the face of the Earth the past few years. Remember when they first started to show life under Reid back in 2000? They opened up that season with an onside kick against the Cowboys, and never looked back. They were aggressive and showed innovation, getting far without any playmakers for McNabb at all.

Flash forward to Sunday night. They looked dead, as they have recently. They had no aggression or innovative calls. They meagerly half-assed a comeback attempt by slowly dumping the ball off to Westbrook for short gains. It looked at time like they weren't trying. You couldn't say that several years ago, but now, it's happening regularly.

Who changes that? The coaching staff, mostly. The front office, too.... by getting new coaches and players.

I hate to say it, but I don't think they care about Reid anymore. Once players lose their passion for a coach, it's near impossible to get it back. He has this lame-duck mood and body language, even though he refuses to step down. Well, when everyone looks like that, changes must be made. It's time.

Do everyone a favor and leave, coach.

2007-11-04T19:30:00.001-05:00

Oh, fuck.

week nine lives

2007-11-04T06:39:00.000-05:00

This is a good day as I get to watch two highly anticipated games: the Overhype Bowl between the Pats and Colts (playoffs are all that really matter anymore for them), and a nationally televised Eagles games against the evil Gauchos. I have to be honest though: as much as it disappoints me, the Pats and Cowboys scare the feck out of me, and I can see both of them running up the score. Badly. I hope not, but we'll see.

SF/PEN over ATL (finally, the JT's get a team in more turmoil than selves)
SD over MIN (they get it now, and I think everyone realizes Vikings can't pass)
JAX over NO (Jags still have D intact)
WSH over NYJ (Kellen Clemens, we're sorry)
TB over ARZ (meh, Bucs are feisty now)
CIN over BUF (this feels like a big mistake, but come on, Bengals, you can't miss here)
DEN over DET (someone has to beat Detroit soon)
TEN over CAR (I'd say panthers, but Titans are just doing good)
OAk over HOU (Texans fell apart minus Scaub)
GB over KC (don't care)
SEA over CLE (high scoring game, Hawks back on track)
NE over IND (hate)
DAL over PHL (hate hate hate)
PIT over BAL (Ravens haven't even looked that good, and in the Burgh? no way)

Week 9 From Outer Space

2007-11-03T21:03:00.000-04:00

SF over ATL
BUF over CIN
DEN over DET
GB over KC
SD over MIN
JAX over NO
WAS over NYJ
TEN over CAR
TB over ARZ
SEA over CLE
NE over IND
HOU over OAK
DAL over PHI
PIT over BAL

CC's Week 8 Picks

2007-10-28T05:38:00.000-04:00

DET at CHI
PIT at CIN
OAK at TEN
CLE at STL
NYG vs. MIA
PHI at MIN
IND at CAR
BUF at NYJ
HOU at SD
JAX at TB
NO at PEN
WAS at NE
GB at DEN

week eight is nova scotian

2007-10-28T05:37:00.000-04:00

glaven!

no jinxes anymore. just wins. c'mon, reid, this is not that difficult...

CLE over STL
NYG over MIA
PHI over MIN
IND over CAR
CHI over DET
PIT over CIN
TEN over OAK
TB over JAX
NYJ over BUF
SD over HOU (it's my desire! game)
NO over FAILURES THAT DON'T BELONG IN SF or PEN
NE over WSH
GB over DEN

Week 8

2007-10-27T13:17:00.000-04:00

IND over CAR
CHI over DET
PIT over CIN
NYG over MIA
MIN over PHI
CLE over STL
TEN over OAK
BUF over NYJ
SD over HOU
TB over JAX
NE over WAS
NO over SF
DEN over GB

You Know What Really Grinds My Gears?

2007-10-25T18:39:00.000-04:00

This didn't come up this past week, but the right-before-the-snap icing timeout has to be dealt with somehow. I don't know how this can be regulated. Maybe before the snap the ref can go up to Mike Shanahan, or whoever the coach is, and say "ARE YOU GOING TO ICE THIS GUY?" and then the Ultimate Leader, or whatever they might refer to the head coach as, can say "Yes" or "No". And if he says "Maybe", the ref cleats him in the balls and then Jason Spezza blades him across the wrists. Then when all that's done, the ref can nod to the players to kindly get on with their business. And then if anyone even tries to call a timeout after that, Shawn Kemp impregnates them.

Thursday Morning Ranterback

2007-10-25T04:09:00.000-04:00

Take a moment to refect on the current standings. If the playoffs started today, here is what the NFC would look like:

1. Cowboys
2. Packers
3. Panthers
4. Seahawks (only 3-3, but the division sucks)
5. Giants
6. Lions tied with Redskins (with Buccaneers close behind)

What is this, 1995?

Last year's three best teams (Bears, Saints, Eagles) are all out. The NFC thus has a lot of turnover. Is this good balance? Or did everyone just really suck last year? I don't know. But it's worth noting as we get closer to the halfway point.

In the AFC, things are more predictable. Pats and Colts on top, Steelers looking good, although the Chiefs are in first place right now. Didn't see that one, but there's time left. Both the Jags and Titans would be in, giving the South Division a rare playoff monopoly. I don't expect half of these teams to hold up, but they have a nice start.

Some random thoughts for week 8:

Someone please let Andy Reid know that playing Minnesota should not be so hard: stack 8 men in the box. Hell, stack 9. Do whatever you can to stop the run, because THEY CANNOT PASS THE BALL. It's obvious. You may wonder why I'm saying this when super-rookie Adrian Peterson is carrying my fantasy team.... well, chances are, Reid isn't listening to anyone anymore. Especially not reason.

The Eagles killed the Lions and the Lions beat the Bears, and the Bears nipped the Eagles in the end. I think the NFC has parity, so at least everyone should have a shot. Just not the Rams.

Or Falcons.

Or Vikings, as long as people play them right. Why wouldn't you just stick everyone on the line of scrimmage? Make them throw every play and you can win by 30. Seriously, I'm keeping Peterson in my lineup because I know I'm going to see Reid go with a prevent D on Sunday and he runs through it.

I'm a little disappointed that Dallas has the week off, because Stev has TO and Romo carrying his team and I needed a reason to drive to Texas and chop off some legs with an axe. Actually, you never need a reason for that, but I'm too lazy.

So much for that 49ers "We're a playoff dark horse!" bandwagon. Simmons called it. Of course, he also said that Atlanta would be a playoff team and Tampa sucked.

I really hope Arizona goes 7-9 and makes the playoffs. It could happen.

I'd root for Detroit, but I know they're going to disappoint me at some point. The one thing they never disappoint in is being disappoitning.

With all the Colts-Pats talk, I'd like to remind people that the Steelers could easily be 6-0 right now. Their two losses were pretty baffling, and they almost pulled them off anyway. What's going on with them when they go to the Mountain Time Zone? Any other place and they look great.

San Diego is pulling it together, but they never should have dumped Marty. They'll be okay because the division sucks, but they have not had good coaching.

Frank Wychek Update: still empty inside.

At least the Dolphins can finally draft a QB high and not have to keep searching for unknowns.... nine years too late.

The mayors of Alta Loma and Pennsauken met this week. They bartered to wager one box of ash-covered palm tree branches vs. an autographed card of native John Taylor for the game. The yard refuse was deemed slightly more valuable, but whatever.

week slevin leovin

2007-10-21T06:03:00.000-04:00

NE over MIA
NO over ATL
SF/PEN over NYG
HOU pver TEN
BAL over BUF
WSH over ARZ
TB pver DET
OAK over KC
CIN over NYJ
DALL over MIN
CHI ober PHI
SEA over STL
PIT pver DEN
IND over JAX

breaking news?

2007-10-18T16:47:00.000-04:00

So I never expected to be a blogger who actually "breaks" news or causes an internet controversy, especially because I never expect anyone to read this that I don't already know, but I could be starting internet rumors. I feel like the guy from TMZ, only I'm not a soulless douchebag.

SO:

While I was at home, at certain family member (who will be left unnamed) who works in a lot of construction in South Jersey gave me the lowdown on the Eagles locker room... it's not good. He was in charge of building a fancy new house in Voorhees for one of their key defensive players (again, I can't name names) and all the people were bugging the guy for answers.... answers to questions like, "Why do we suck?"

Apparently, the guy said that the team has completely turned on McNabb, hates him, and even outright tried to get him hurt in that ugly Giants game when they gave up 343 sacks. They haven't quit, but they've pretty much quit on him. They want him gone.

Now....

I don't know the credibility of all involved. Whenever teams do bad, rumors of star inadequacies spread rampantly. Note the Great Gay Pittsburgh Rumor of the late 90's *. The person telling me this noted how people turned on McNabb after his racial comments, which makes me suspicious. White South Jersey football fans were not so forgiving of those comments. Were they just pissed? Did they make this up to feed their anger? It's not so ridiculous as other rumors * that people have started, but you never know....

I personally think that Giants loss, which might have been the worst I have seen them play in years, was for several other reasons. They didn't have Westbrook, and that hurts. They didn't run nearly enough, even though they were doing that fairly well. They had a rookie at left tackle who looked like he didn't know what pass protection is (incidentally, he was great in college at USC and slipped in the draft only for criminal reasons).

Still..... 11 sacks? That's bad. I don't know the state of their locker room, but it looked like they didn't care. And they came back last week, but that was with Westbrook playing and against the Jets, who, no offense, Doctor, are the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked. I suppose the jury is still out on this one. But if the Eagles pull a mutiny and toss McNabb aside and start playing hard for his backup (ummm... which kinda happened last year?) , well, you heard it here first. Sort of.

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*** * The Great Gay Pittsburgh Rumor - in the late 90's, when the Steelers were struggling, the hot rumor spreading around Western PA was that Kordell Stewart (who sucked then) and several former players (who had all left as free agents for other teams) were arrested for soliciting sex from an undercover cop.... a MALE undercover cop. That's right, in the middle of the Steelers sucking, allegedly all the people the fans hated the most all got into the same gay sex scandal at once, but the team covered it up. See, this is why most rumors are stupid.

W6

2007-10-13T14:02:00.000-04:00

BAL def STL
CHI def MIN
CLE def MIA
WAS def GB
HOU def JAX
CIN def KC
PHI def NYJ
TEN def TB
CAR def ARZ
NE def DAL
SD def OAK
SEA def NO
NYG def ATL

Danno's Week Spix

2007-10-12T16:45:00.001-04:00

The ESPN expert picks are in, and not a single one of them picked the Cowboys to win.

And I certainly wouldn't, either. But if the Cowboys are going to win, it is under exactly these circumstances. They are 1st or 2nd in the league in all offensive statistics, and yet nobody seems to think they even have the possibility to win, and at home! This will be one of the few times I'll be rooting for them.

Anyway...

MIN at CHI
MIA at CLE
WAS at GB
CIN at KC
TEN at TB
STL at BAL
HOU at JAX
PHI at NYJ
CAR at ARZ
OAK at SD
NE at DAL
NO at SEA
NYG at ATL

week 6 picks from the beehive state

2007-10-12T14:17:00.000-04:00

There are only 13 games this week, as the delightful NFL schedule-makers decided to give six teams the week off, ruining fantasy teams everywhere... like mine.

TB over TEN
CHI over MIN
HOU over JAX
CLE over MIA
BAL over STL
GB over WSH
CIN over KC
NYJ over PHL (yeah, i know, it didn't work last time.... i just think Birds are falling apart)
CAR over ARZ (Vinny to the rescue!)
SD over OAK
NE over DAL
SEA over NO (i did not phone my brother's dog, but i did flip a coin)
NYG over ATL (i was tempted but then atlanta sucks)

Week Fieve

2007-10-07T02:03:00.000-04:00

HOU def MIA
JAX def KC
NE def CLE
CAR def NO
NYJ def NYG
PIT def SEA (after sketchy officiating)
ARZ def STL
WAS def DET
TEN def ATL
IND def TB
DEN def SD
SF def BAL
GB def CHI
DAL def BUF

wekk 5 with a bottle of blues

2007-10-07T00:20:00.000-04:00

And it just keeps rolling downhill.....

I have no idea anymore. I really don't. But I will try, as always.

STL over ARZ (Way too much going against Rams.... but come on, they HAVE to win soon, right????)
NE over CLE (Romeo, oh Romeo, thou hast the potential for revenge.... but probably not)
CAR over NO (I clearly can't pick any Saints games right, so I let my brother's dog pick this one.... no, honestly, I did)
NYJ over NYG (This is an ugly Jersey showdown... Jets are slightly less awful)
PIT over SEA (Arizona woke them up, Seattle is winning but still vulnerable)
WSH over DET (I think I like Skins...???)
HOU over MIA (I'm tempted to go with the reverse, but Fins truly do S*CK IT)
TEN over ATL (If Joey actually comes back after ripping me off............)
JAX over KC (I think the talent level is too high, but.... )
IND over TB (Dungy Bowl! Bucs not bad but Indy doesn't lose much at home)
SD over DEN (Once again, Chargers SHOULD be winning easily)
SF over BAL (I don't trust Ravens anymore, although not that Niners are worth it...meh.... John Taylor told me to do it)
CHI over GB (It seems too easy, but Bears are furious)
DAL over BUF (Oh, to be in 1994 again.... I will again root feverishly for Bills as they lose by 40)

I love and hate football on similar levels.

Danno's Week 5 Picks

2007-10-06T14:25:00.001-04:00

MIA at HOU
ATL at TEN
JAX at KC
NYJ vs NYG
CAR at NO
ARI at STL
CLE at NE
SEA at PIT
DET at WAS
TB at IND
SD at DEN
BAL at PEN
CHI at GB
DAL at BUF

Week Four

2007-09-29T10:58:00.000-04:00

HOU over ATL
BAL over CLE
MIA over OAK
CHI over DET
NYJ over BUF
GB over MIN
DAL over STL
PEN over SEA
CAR over TB
SD over KC
IND over DEN
PIT over ARZ
PHI over NYG
NE over CIN

Danno's Picks, Week 4

2007-09-28T23:15:00.000-04:00

...But first, THIS!

I agree with everything Justin said. Last week blew, and this week isn't much better.

GB at MIN
OAK at MIA (Al: The Dolphins? A trifle. I just sent wave after wave of my own quarterbacks at Joey Porter until he reached his sack limit and shut down!)
NYJ at BUF
HOU at ATL
CHI at DET
BAL at CLE
STL at DAL
TB at CAR
SEA at PEN
KC at SD
PIT at ARI
DEN at IND
PHI at NYG
NE at CIN

Actually, that wasn't so bad.

leo week 4 pix

2007-09-28T16:21:00.000-04:00

Well this isn't helping.

I still have no idea about half of these teams. Who is for real? Who is pissed? St. Louis is too good to start 0-4. But are they going to beat Dallas on the road? Cinncy is too good (at least offensively) to start 1-3. But are they going to beat the Pats? Miami and Oakland both suck, but even the Suck-Its should win once. I just think that after teams get to 3-0 or 0-3, they get either desperate or too cocky. It's too easy to ride the hot hands... but then again, if they play someone obvious.... arggh. This season is pissing me off. With that, the picks.

MIA over OAK (no McCown, in Miami.... meh, I guess)
GB over MIN (watch the Pack lose now that everyone believes in them.. like me)
HOU over ATL (MATT SCHAUB BOWL!!!)
NYJ over BUF (although Bills have to be pissed soon.... don't they?)
BAL over CLE (no 51 points this week)
DAL over STL (i want to say Rams, but i just can't)
CHI over DET (Griese to the rescue)
SF over SEA (really, really tough call.... Niners have had the edge recently)
CAR over TB (I have a bad feeling about this one)
PIT over ARZ (Steelers should have it)
SD over KC (Chargers struggling, but not that bad)
IND over DEN (Colts always own them, and Broncos look shaky)
NYG over PHL (the reverse jinx is alive)
NE over CIN (I'd like to see Cinncy, but I have no faith in D)

Inside the Luxury Box at McAfee Coliseum

2007-09-26T15:55:00.000-04:00

New Year's Eve, 2006. Time runs out on the Raiders' final game of the season, which the Jets have just won, 23-3. Al Davis comforts then-head coach Art Shell.

Al: Don't blame yourself, Art. We were doomed from the start. Nothing remains now but for the captain to go down with the ship.

Art: That's...surprisingly noble of you, sir.

Al: No, it's noble of you, Art. As of now, you're in command. Congratulations, captain! [dashes off for the press conference announcing Lane Kiffin as new head coach]

It is week 9 and the Oakland Raiders are 2-6.

Al: Kiff! You're crying! Like a woman!

Kiff: [sobs]

Al: It's all right, I've often thought of myself as a father figure to some of my more pathetic head coaches.

The Raiders owner haggles with Bill Belichick over the price for Randy Moss.

Al: I propose you give us ten draft picks.

Bill: How about zero?

Al: Nine.

Bill: Zero.

Al: Seven.

Bill: Zero.

Al: Eight?

Al has too many eggnog-n-scotches at the NFL owners' Christmas party.

Al (standing on a table, singing drunkenly): I met her at a club down in old SoHo...We drank champagne that tasted just like Coca-Cola...C-O-L-A, Cola. [assembled owners begin complaining loudly].

Dan Rooney: Give us a break!

Bob Kraft: He sickens me...

Al: She walked up to me and she asked me to dance. I asked her her name, and in a dark brown voice she said ELLLL AY! L-A-L-A ELLLLLLL AY! ELL ELL ELL ELL ELLLLLLLL AYYY! Ba ba ba ba bum ba bum bum bum bah! Da dee dum, da day day day day da dee dee! [assembled owners flee in terror for the exits] Ba ba ba bum ba bum bahhhhh!

Mid-season Raiders front-office meeting.

Kiff: Sir, may I have a word with you?

Al (hung over): No.

Kiff: It's an emergency, sir!

Al: Come back when it's a catastrophe!

[defensive line mutinies]

Al: Oh, very well...

Early morning on draft day, 2008.

Al: Let's trade all our draft picks to Dallas for Terrell Owens!

Kiff: Sir, we have the first pick overall. We're poised to finally have a decent offensive line.

Al: That's for schoolgirls. This is a plan with some chest hair!

Kiff: But, sir, he didn't even lead his team in yardage, he's thirty-five years old, and he punched Jerry Jones in the kidney! Twice!

Al: Ah, yes. The James Dean of the NFL. By continually overpaying for washed-up malcontents, we might be able to pick up some kind of gravity boost. Or something.

Tuesday Morning Ranterbackacacacacacacacac

2007-09-25T11:10:00.000-04:00

The saying is that week one is crazy, week two makes more sense, and by week 3, we have a good idea of what's happening. Teams that start 0-3 or 3-0 usually keep heading that direction. Well, as exemplified by our pickings this week, we still we really don't know what the f$ is going on.

As I've said before, I think I have picked less than 20 % of the games correctly involving the Eagles or Saints since the beginning of last season. Suddenly, I'm not so pissed at not getting Drew Brees. The Birds finally got on track after I picked them not to, natch, and Kevin Curtis went from killing me to mocking me after I sat him and he had one of the best days EVER by a receiver. But are they really back, or does Detroit just suck on D?

That's really my concern with this season. Nothing is certain as of yet. There are a few teams that we know are good: New England, Indy, Dallas, Green Bay, Pittsburgh. There are a few that we know are bad: New Orleans (for now), Miami, Buffalo, Atlanta. Everyone else? No clue. And some of those aforementioned teams could reverse themselves quickly if dramatic things happen.

So that's where I am right now... completely lost.

Some random thoughts:

1. I would buy a throwback Eagles jersey, but for those colors, they had better be selling it at a good price. Did they really wear that in the depression 30's? It looked like a 60's experiment when everyone was tripping.

2. Experts are now reasoning that the Saints lucked out last year on a bad division and loads of energy and emotion. Thus, we should not be so surprised if they aren't as good as we thought. So why then did so many of them have the Saints in the Super Bowl in their preseason predictions? I know 90 % of them at least had them winning the division.

3. Larry Johnson, Stephen Jackson, and LaDanian Tomlinson are killing the business.... and lots of dreams.

4. Rexy is not sexy. Dallas has a decent run defense but their secondary is a little shaky, and the Bears did NOTHING to expose that. This is going to get ugly fast.

5. Between Jacksonville, Houston, and Tennessee, the AFC south is suddenly much better, but who knows how these teams really are?

6. I like Jason Campbell, even after I dumped him in my unending search for a backup QB. He's got poise. POISE! He made a great comeback last week, and it wasn't his fault that they screwed it up. He scares me for the future of the NFC east.

7. San Diego keeps screwing up, and it was especially bad Sunday because the Packers made some terrible plays as well and still won. They had 4th and goal on the inch line... a QB sneak or simple run would do it, and they spread out wide for a shotgun pass play. It didn't work. Those are the kind of stupid plays that get coaches fired. But they still won! Alas, poor Norv, I knew him well.

8. College football is dead to me.

9. Quick non-football thought: during the Ahmenijidad (sp?, I guess) press conference, I kept picturing Borat saying, "In my country, we are more advanced now... homosexuals no longer must wear blue hat."

10. Seriously, I hate so many head coaches right now. Bill Simmons has always pointed out how many bad plays are called and how many terrible people are in important positions in a league that makes billions of dollars and is home to the best of the best of the best for athletes. I'd agree, but then how did they get hired? There are only 32 openings and hundreds of people trying to get in. Maybe it's just really hard to coach in the NFL.

Prove me wrong, Norv!

CC's Week 3 Picks

2007-09-22T22:04:00.000-04:00

This is the sort of week I hate.

BUF at NE
MIA at NYJ
DET at PHI
PEN at PIT
SD at GB
MIN at KC
STL at TB
ARI at BAL
IND at HOU
CLE at OAK
CIN at SEA
JAX at DEN
CAR at ATL
NYG at WAS
DAL at CHI
TEN at NO

leo week 3

2007-09-22T22:00:00.001-04:00

Yep. I'm going all out already. I'm losing too much too early and the Eagles are in the can. It's time for a change. Speaking of Ranterbrook, as I was last post, he likes to claim that he is the "only football columnist who makes picks in haikus." Well, bully for him.... Danno and I have done it with chutzpah. (AND he's never come close to the Chaddington lyrics, despite being a scholar and all). Read it:

Cleveland scored 50!
And Seahawks bring name offense!
Bengals, you need help. (SEA over CIN)

Joey is hoey
Ruined my fantasy league?
as Falcons collapse. (CAR over ATL)

Chiefs' Brodie Croyle
compared to Ringo for looks
sadly, also skills. (MIN over KC)

Coughlin and Eli
Giants can't be this bad yet.
Nor 'Skins be that good. (NYG or WSH)

Denver's been lucky...
but Jags can't run or kick now.
Elam strikes again. (DEN over JAX)

Brett thinks he's still young.
Shawne Merriman says no dice.
Chargers, are ya pissed? (SD over GB)

Saints stuck in the swamp
Vince Young titillated
Titans. I sense change. (NO over TEN)

Danno versus Stev.
Reality AND fantasy!
Steel D Gores Niners. (PIT over SF/ PEN)

No spying this time
Pats could hand Bills their playbook
Still wouldn't change things (NE over BUF)

Ray Lewis loves minks
And destroying young passers
Matt goes on his wall (BAL over ARZ)

Going negative
The reverse jinx worked last year
Yes, I hate myself. (DET over PHL)

99 rematch!
Where's Kurt Warner or Shaun King?
Ugly, dead, or faced? (STL over TB)

Miami at Jets:
Chad could start for the suck-its
Even with one leg (NYJ over MIA)

The old Ditka bowl!
Brian, please snap TO's legs,
or, at least, sharpies. (CHI over DAL)

Houston's surprising
Indy still hot but still whores
Meh, I'll take safe pick (IND over HOU)

This game is ugly
Raiders playing all Fugly
But, they should be due. (OAK over CLE)

Shut Up

2007-09-22T15:29:00.000-04:00

Rush Limbaugh should never have gotten into sports media, and Keith Olbermann should never have left.

Quick Picks for Week 3

2007-09-22T13:29:00.000-04:00

PHL
IND
SD
MIN
NE
NYJ
SF
BAL
STL
JAX
CIN
CLE
CAR
NYG
CHI
TEN

Administrative Note

2007-09-19T18:04:00.001-04:00

The hyper link for this blog has been changed from:

http://needtogoforasafety.blogspot.com

to

http://theyneedtogoforasafety.blogspot.com

Tuesday Morning Ranterback

2007-09-18T10:23:00.000-04:00

ESPN has a weekly column called Tuesday Morning Quarterback, where a Brookings Fellow (that's a high honor, apparently) writes a long and windy football cloumn with references to military experiments, Haikus, sci-fi cable shows, political policy, and just for kicks, lots of scantily clad cheerleaders. Why can't we do that? Put together, we have five degrees (almost) in a variety of subjects. Danno can handle the history / politcial / military madness, Stev knows all the nerd fests, and I can supply the angry football ranting. As I will now. ESPN, you should be paying us.

First off, I'd like to be the millionth person to send hate the way of Bill Simmons and Colin Cowherd, amnogst other pigskin prognosticators. They managed to convince me that maybe Joey Harrington wasn't a terrible quarterback... maybe he could even do good in Atlanta with no pressure, decent runners, and a good offensive system. BULLOCKS! He's been worse than Vick, and they suck. I thought he would be a clever late round pick in fantasy who could get me some unexpected points. Now I have to cross my fingers with the likes of Jeff Garcia, Josh McCown, and Jay Cutler. ughhhhhh......

Secondly, I just called Houston the worst-run team in the league in my preview and they're already one win away from my projected season total for them. That's no good. Matt Schaub, the pride of West Chester (it's the best Chester!), is looking good and they actually have some players on D.

Detroit is surprising me as well, though I can't tell if they can really keep this going, especially if they have to rely on a guy named J.T. O' Sullivan, who should have a sports bar (or really any bar, tavern, or eating estbalishment with beverages of a refreshing nature served) named after himself immediately.

I'm terrified of picking any more Saints games because I don't want them to kill me like they did last year. Were they that good? Are they that bad now? I was furious at not getting Brees... now Eli is housing him in fantasy points.

I'm also terrified of picking any more games involving Cinncinatti. How the f--- do you give up 51 points to Cleveland? The Cavs scored less than that in the NBA finals. Every game they play could be 56-67, only I can't tell who will win.

Of course, I'm ignoring the most obvious bad news and it is right in our homeland. The Eagles are 0-2 and look like shite. Actually, it's really only the offense who looks bad. The defense has been pretty steady and most of the points given up are on the failures of offense (ball control) and special teams (that first week). I was worried about the front seven, before the season, but they haven't been too bad. The defensive backfield has been good as well, although the safeties, as Stev pointed out, allowed some long passes last night. William James made a good pick but also got beat a couple times. He's a nice nickel back but they need Lito and Sheldon in there.

But my god, the offense looks bad. They're basically relying on Westbrook to bail them out of everything. I know it's easy to trash Donovan, and with his curious comments this week, he's going to get NAILED in the press.

Much like this sympathetic Onionista, I feel for him. I really do. He's had to put up with a lot of crap over the years while not having a ton of weapons. But he just does NOT look good right now. He missed a lot of open people, he can't scramble that much anymore (which is a big relief to opposing defenses - they used to keep an extra linebacker in there to watch him), and he doesn't look sharp in his throwing. Look, it usually takes at least a full year to recover from major knee surgery. He had it at the middle of last season. He admits that he's not at 100 %, but he's probably way lower than he thinks.

Also, his receivers are not getting open. I thought they were decent, and last season, I figured he had the best receving core of his career, besides the TO year.... but now I'm not so sure. Donte Stallworth had some speed, and no one has filled that. Early last year, the Eagles had the opposite of problems, doing well on offense while sputtering a little on D. McNabb was getting long balls to Stallworth and Hank "Put The Lotion in the" Baskett with ease. Now, nothing. Kevin Curtis dropped that pass at the end, which was catchable - despite him being drilled - so he will incure some wrath in Philly this week.

In all, this looks bad, especially with the Cowboys scoring a lot, and my confidence is not too high. We can take heart, however, in one simple fact: the Eagles have a habit of starting slow. Last year, they were good but a bit inconsistent in the first half. When McNabb got hurt, I though they were surely done for, but they simplified the playbook, stepped up on D, and rallied around Jeff Garcia to win the division. In 2002, they were good for the first half but stepped up big in the second half (with a tough schedule) with A. J. Feeley stepping in. In 2003, you may remember, they started out 0-2 by getting DESTROYED at home twice, lost big to the Cowboys, and needed a miracle punt return by Westbrook just to beat the Giants. Well, they ended up with 12 wins that year. So at least the precedent has been set before where they start out poorly, everyone thinks the Cowboys are going to run away with the division, and then they come back strong in the second half.

You may notice that in two of those years, they rallied around a backup QB. Does that mean they don't trust McNabb? No, it means they do better when they simplify things. Right now, with him still hurting, they need to do that. Their defense is okay, so they need to get the running game going and not stress him out. They did that last season with Garcia in, and it worked. I've always liked Andy Reid but I'm gettting a little sick of his stubborn play calling. ESPN showed a graphic last night of how often he chose passing plays vs. the run. He was way higher than other coaches over the past few years, and lately, even higher than that. WHY? This is not the time to have McNabb throwing it every play! Last year, he let Marty Morningwheg, who was a good coordinator in San Francisco, simplify things for Garcia. Why not now? Clearly, McNabb isn't in full game, so why keep treating him like he can handle it????

I have faith in them turning it around, because they've done it before, but it won't happen unless Reid settles the f**K down. I'm wondering how long it will be before people start clamoring for McNabb to be benched or traded.... oh wait, that started at 12:35 AM Eastern time. Fantastic. I can't wait to be in Philly when the Eagles bye week is up and people are ready to storm Joe banner's office.
..
..
...
...
...
[Hey, the Steelers are back! Considering how stupid Baltimore and Cinncy look, they're a lock now. So that's nice.]

CC's Picks

2007-09-16T01:01:00.000-04:00

BUF at PIT
HOU at CAR
ATL at JAX
NO at TB
GB at NYG
PJT at STL
CIN at CLE
IND at TEN
MIN at DET
DAL at MIA
SEA at ARI
NYJ at BAL
OAK at DEN
KC at CHI
SD at NE
WAS at PHI

Steve's Week 2 Picks

2007-09-15T14:41:00.000-04:00

CAR def HOU
CIN def CLE
IND def TEN
NO def TB
STL def SF
PIT def BUF (though don't discount Buffalo as the new emotional favorite)
GB def NYG
JAX def ATL
SEA def ARZ
DAL def MIA
MIN def DET
DEN def OAK
CHI def KC
BAL def NYJ
SD def NE
PHI def WAS

leo week 2 picks

2007-09-14T19:13:00.000-04:00

So I don't have to do this twice, let's see if I can just paste the results from my other pick-em site.... (that's right, I'm in a pick-em contest with other people too, and that one is for cash... I mean.... just for fun. Yes. No money involved, officer.)

[Looks over shoulder]

[Crosses fingers that Danno won't narc]

[Realizes he has much worse dirt on former roomate anyway]

[Considers this, buys piano-wire-proof neck brace just to be safe]

CAROLINA over Houston
Atlanta over JACKSONVILLE
Indianapolis over TENNESSEE
ST. LOUIS over San Francisco/ Pennsauken/ Alta Loma / Temecula-Murietta
Green Bay over NEW YORK 300 POUND QBS THAT ARE FUCKING UP MY FANTASY LEAGUE GODAMMIT (NYG)
PITTSBURGH over Buffalo (BATTLE OF LAKE ERIE SEPCIAL!)
Cincinnati over CLEVELAND
New Orleans over TAMPA BAY
Minnesota over DETROIT
Dallas over MIAMI
Seattle over ARIZONA
BALTIMORE over New York Not Chaddingtons (NYJ)
CHICAGO over Kansas City
DENVER over Oakland
San Diego over SECRET SOCIETY OF RED INFILTRATORS, a.k.a. NEW ENGLAND
PHILADELPHIA over Washington (for the love of god.....)

Open Letter to Bill Simmons

2007-09-12T23:03:00.001-04:00

I understand you're trying to put this camera affair in a better perspective, but I believe there's a critical difference between this and taking steroids.

Steroids make players unnaturally stronger and faster. It augments their strength and speed, but this 1)only affects the play of the man taking it, and 2)other teams can still recognize how strong and fast the guy is, even if they can't necessarily know he's on steroids. Bottom line, this is a tactical cheating maneuver and its impact on a game is minimal.

Signal-stealing is a strategic, not tactical, cheating maneuver. It eliminates the risk in play-calling altogether, making the only variable the physical matchups between the players. You claim that cheating of this sort can't tarnish the Pats' super bowl wins because of their relatively inferior play in the 2nd half as opposed to the 1st. But, in any spy operation, to keep your source of information intact you can't let the enemy even suspect they've been compromised. You certainly can attest to Belichick's brilliance--wouldn't he pull a Milton Berle with his spying, and only utilize his secret as much as necessary to win?

Think 1940, Battle of Britain: The British had broken the code of the German High Command and knew exactly where and when the Luftwaffe was going to attack. The vastly outmanned and outgunned Royal Air Force was sent to protect the vital targets, but towns like Hastings were completely leveled because the British had to let the Germans remain secure in the belief that their plans were known to only them.

-----------------

I know this is way too long to make it into his mailbag, but I hope he at least reads it.

Pick 'Em Week 1

2007-09-12T22:05:00.000-04:00

Ah, good.

CC: 11-5
Zandar: 10-6
Metalhead: 10-6

S*ck it, y'all. Feel free to double-check my math, because I didn't.

good.

2007-09-10T13:30:00.000-04:00

I didn't even bother watching the Eagles game. What was the point? If they didn't kill the Packers, I wouldn't feel like looking at them ever again. If I saw the scout team guard walking near me in Center City, I would cross the street illegally so as to avoid my line of vision intersecting with any part of his person.

So of course....

LOSS!

A mere 13 points!

Dead.

One more week like that and I'm committing myself to college only this year.

Randy Moss might just make a Patriots fan out of me...

2007-09-10T08:22:00.000-04:00

So now that the pats have someone who might just turn Brady into a gun slinger, I think I can finally get on board for the most consistently winning, but conservative, borring, and perfect team of the modern era.

Previously unwatchable, because they pride themselves on taking whatever excitement football would normally offer, and turn it into a fresh-orange-juice-squeezing breakfast-toast-and-scrapple yawn-fest.

If there's one thing NFL fans don't want to see, it's calculated, flawless football. I wanna see pissed off divas barking at their QBs like Chessapeak-Bay-Bridge Retrievers. I wanna see Rex Grossman throw for 450 yards and 7 touchdowns one sunday, and 9 interceptions the next. To quote Bill Hicks, "I Want My Favorite Rock-Stars DEAD! Play from your F***ing Hearts!!!!"

Now, the rest of them

2007-09-07T02:11:00.000-04:00

PHI at GB
KC at HOU
DEN at BUF
PIT at CLE
CAR at STL
ATL at MIN
NE at NYJ
MIA at WAS
TEN at JAX
CHI at SD
TB at SEA
DET at OAK
NYG at DAL
BAL at CIN
ARI at SF

Stev, at the end of the season I'll buy you a Quad Stacker Kid's Meal so you'll still be able to wear some type of crown.

It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year

2007-09-06T20:23:00.000-04:00

The temperature is dropping, copious amounts of Samuel Adams Octoberfest are coursing through my veins and football is back on my television. It's also time for me to defend my title as TNTGFA Safety Pick-Em' Champion:

IND over NO
PHI over GB
MIN over ATL
WAS over MIA
NE over NYJ
JAX over TEN
DEN over BUF
PIT over CLE
STL over CAR
KC over HOU
SEA over TB
SD over CHI
DET over OAK
DAL over NYG
BAL over CIN
SF over ARZ

Danno's pick for tonight

2007-09-06T13:55:00.001-04:00

Indy over New Orleans.

LEO's week 1 picks

2007-09-06T10:44:00.000-04:00

Home team in caps, winners on top.

INDIANAPOLIS over
New Orelans

Denver over
BUFFALO

WASHINGTON over
Miami

Pittsburgh over
CLEVELAND

JACKSONVILLE over
Tennessee

Kansas City over
HOUSTON

Philadelphia over
GREEN BAY

Carolina over
ST. LOUIS

MINNESOTA over
Atlanta

New England over
NEW YORK J! E! T! S! JETS JETS JETS

SEATTLE over
Tampa Bay

OAKLAND over
Detroit

SAN DIEGO over
Chicago

(btw, why is the game below on nationally and not the game above??? WTF!)

DALLAS over
New York Guyants

Baltimore over
CINNCY WAS SO NATTY

SAN FRANCISCO/ PENNSAUKEN / SANTA CLARA over
Arizona

sorry, kids... let's get ready

2007-09-04T13:39:00.001-04:00

I guess no one cares about college football on here. I thought that madness would be good for a laugh. Since Danno is the only person who voted, I suppose Ivy Joe Hunter's alma mater wins.... which is Kentucky. I didn't even have them on here, but whatever.

I can now count Penn State as the team that is no longer the most embarassed in the Big Ten, and their Toledo disgrace of several years ago can't even begin to match up with Appalachain State over Michigan. I'll never stop laughing. This is the best news ever.

Anyway, They Need to Go for a Safety's first official fantasy draft went down last night, and it was a rousing success. This will be a fascinating inagural season. My decision to go with two starting QB's in a smaller league may come back to bite me in the ass. I'm also curious to see how the people in different drafing spots will do... I think us on the ends are screwed. Maybe we should randomize each round, or each other round. We'll see.

As for my initial analysis, I'm going to have to work hard to stay in this. Eli Manning and Jay Cutler to start, Joey Harrington and some youngster to fill in? Christ. Stev has three underrated runners and Marc Bulger; Dom has Steven Jackson and a host of solid name guys; Paul has Reggie Bush and a maybe rejuvenated Shaun Alexander; Ryan has LJ and lots of potential; Danno has a very solid core; Kev has LDT and two good QBs; and Drew has the roster I pretty much wanted, with a bunch of guys I was just about to take. It's going to be fun, but tough. It will require all of my cunning to keep up with these guys.

Also, I would like to remind you all that They Need to Go for a Safety's second annual Pick-Em challenge begins this week. You may submit your picks on here or via phone before kickoff every Sunday, unless there is an early game (like THIS WEEK). If we can get more people in a year round pool, it'll be that much more exciting. No spreads, just winners.

Get ready...

justin leo's season preview 2007

2007-09-02T20:35:00.000-04:00

LEO'S 2007 NFL PREVIEW

Let's get right into it.

NFC

NFC EAST

PHL 10-6
DAL 10-6
WSH 7-9
NYG 5-11

Philadelphia Eagles (10 wins):

I'm being cautiously optimistic. No Super Bowl predicitions this year. Nothing said about health. I've had quite enough of that.

The one thing that I can say about the Birds is that they've got as good a chance as anyone. Look at all the other contenders in the NFC. The Bears have major questions on offense, the Saints have major questions on defense, the Panthers were a big disappointment, the Cowboys were very up-and-down last year, the Seahawks have lost people, and no one else really strikes fear yet. I know it's easy for us negative Philly fans to point out all the potential problems they have, but they've got less than everyone else.

There aren't many teams in the league with the balance of O and D. There are concerns on each side (WR, LB) but then there are also proven commodities. Unless someone really steps up, they have to be in the discussion for conference domination.

I loved the Takeo Spikes move, and I think Kevin Curtis is decent enough to help replace Donte Stallworth. Their receivers aren't great, but they're not as terrible as a few years ago either.... and they've got potential.

Of course, I heart Tony Hunt, not just because's a PSU guy, but I've been begging them to get another back for years.

This offense is solid and they fixed a few holes on D. Realistically, they could be the best team in the conference. If Reid continues to let Morningwheg (a bad head coach, but a good coordinator) calm the offense down, they'll be fine. I am confident... cautious, but confident.

[Still refusing to jinx them...]

Dallas Cowboys (10 wins):

I'm sick of people essing their D, and not just because I hate them. They did their best when nobody else in the division was in sync, and they fell apart late. Romo made a lot of news but he's still relatively unproven. TO dropped a lot of key catches last year, so good riddance.

They have talent, no question. But if they could only get 9 wins last year with it, when the conference was terrible, why should they get any more now? Wade Phillips is not a spectacular coach, not worth more than Parcells. I'm honestly not that worried about them. But I'll pick them to do well to help my chi.

Washington Redskins (7 wins):

Joe Gibbs might not have been so stoked about coming back if he knew he'd have to deal with Daniel Snyder. He's still feeling the effects of bringing in pricey vets like Brunell and such.

The good news is that they are getting better. Jason Campbell and Clinton Portis are holding this team up. Defensively, they have no one, but they're starting to get people in.

A lot of people have them marked down as a sleeper this year. I don't buy it, but anything can happen. I think they're definitely a year away, but they could be in it for one of the last playoff spots.

New York Giants (5 wins):

Let's see...

They fell apart like the ending of Mystic River last year....

They lost their key running back who had been doing everything on offense, and he wasn't finished yet....

Their key defensive player almost retired because he hates the coach so much, even though he needed the cash....

And, speaking of the coach, Tom Coughlin is only good for 3 years before he starts wearing on players.

This is year 4.

NORRIS (NFC NORTH)

CHI 11-5
GB 7-9
MIN 7-9
DET 5-11

Chicago Bears (11 wins):

Sometimes I can't believe they were really the NFC champs last year. They had none of the appeal of the old Bears teams. They really started to look shaky on offense late in the season. They dropped the ball so much in the big game, and Rex Grossman became a running joke, albeit leading to a great UCB skit.

So now, a lot of people are dumping them. Well, I also remember the early part of last season when they looked unbeatable. I also see that there aren't enough great teams in the league, especially their division, to unseat them. I think they'll get back to 10 wins or so, easy.

It's all about Rex and the O. If he's good, they can win it all. If not, they'll dump him and just rely on D. I don't see them falling apart, but they won't scare anyone in the playoffs if he struggles.

Green Bay Packers (7 wins):

You could say that Brett Favre is like the guy that used to be in a great band and hasn't sone anything meaningful in the past 20 years. He keeps hanging around the party, makign everyone else feel awkward, but they can't say no to him because he's a legend.

Favre wanted help and the Packers decided to go with a youth movement instead. They've drafted young guys, including another quarterback, at key spots and dumped most veterans. You'd think he'd get the point.... they don't really want him anymore. But he keeps showing up. Dramatically.

Just leave, man. Ironically, this team has a good future. They have nice young guys at every spot. They can't make the playoffs yet, but they'll be good soon.... too late for him.

Minnesota Vikings (7 wins):

This team also has a bright future. Their D is finally solid, and they have pieces on offense. They have also been mentioned as a sleeper should the Bears fail, but I say not yet. The key to this year is how Adrian Peterson and Tavaris Jackson look, and if any of the receivers can do anything. If they do well, this could be the team to beat in a few years. Who knew Brad Childress could handle this? I thought he was Andy Reid's little brother who never said anything. Good work, but not a postseason team this year.

Detroit Lions (5 wins):

People have them as a major sleeper. It seems everyone in this division besides Chicago has potential. Yeah, they've got an interesting mix of offensive potential. But people seem to be forgetting one thing...

They're the Detroit Lions.

F plus.

[click]

NFC SOUTH

CAR 11-5
NO 9-7
TB 6-10
ATL 6-10

Carolina Panthers (11 wins):

I don't know what happened last year. Injuries killed them a few years ago, but they didn't lose that much last year, and yet they struggled. They were my easy pick for the title game beforehand, but now I don't know.

I still think they're dangerous. They have the D. They have depth at running back, more then ever. Jake Delhomme just isn't a consistent quarterback. He winged it during their SB run and it worked. Last year, not so much, because they didn't have anyone besides Steve Smith. Well, they got some good young receivers, and they brought in David Carr as a backup. He could be great with an actual offensive line.

Pressure is on, Jake. I think they're the best team in the NFC if they click. And if not, well, that's just one more team the Eagles don't have to worry about.

New Orleans Saints (9 wins):

I didn't think they were for real last year, up until that last quarter of the Eagles game. They cost me a load of pick'ems. I'm convinced now, but I'm still suspicious about their D and their ability to keep it going with a tougher sked.

There's no question that this offense will be great. It's the best in the NFC. The only matter is if the D is enough. I think that they played on a lot of emotion and surprised teams last year, and it will be hard to repeat. But then again, they really picked it up at the end, especially Reggie Bush. Until their D proves something, I don't see them in the big game like some experts do, but they're one of the few teams I can guarantee for the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6 wins):

They have the ability to play smart, control offense, with lots of running and conservative passing, to supplement the D....

... only the D is getting old. Five years ago, these guys were great. They're slipping big time now. And what is Gruden doing with all his quarterbacks? He keeps dumping them before he sees anything. Jeff Garcia can be good for a while, but he's not a long term answer. Gruden should move on because they need to start over.

They might be able to sneak into the playoffs if other teams slip, but right now, no dice.

Atlanta Falcons (6 wins):

...rough summer, eh?

I actually don't think the subtraction of Vick is going to kill them on the field. They weren't so great anyway. Fans might not show up, and TV will ignore them, but Bobby Petrino is probably happy in a way that Vick's gone. He was tying up most of their salary cap and they kept having the change the offense to suit him.

Now, they'll go with a more pass-friendly offense and not have to worry about making him into a real QB. Joey Harrington is a decent placeholder for a young quarterback that they will undoubtedly get soon. Ironically, they finally got some receivers to help Vick, but they'll help someone else now. With young rookie backs and such, they're actually not so bad off for the next few years. Still, they will suffer now. The defense isn't that great and they have to rebuild their image.

But on the field, they really won't miss him that much. Believe it.

NFC WEST

SEA 10-6
SF 8-8
STL 8-8
ARZ 7-9

Seattle Seahawks (10 wins):

It's fun to bash these guys and say that everyone else in the division can catch them. No one thought they were really the best team in the NFC when they won it, and no one gives them much credit now. But they won the division again last year and nearly knocked the Bears out in the playoffs. They could have been in back to back Super Bowls with a few breaks.

They probably aren't as great as the SB team, but they're still balanced on both sides of the ball. They, like the Eagles, don't have any real threats but a lot of solid guys. Shaun Alexander is dropping off, but he still has a good year or two in him. So does Hasselbeck. They might fade out soon, and the division has gotten better, but they are still the team to beat for me. One more year. They honestly could get back to the Super Bowl quite easily if other teams slip up. Or they could finish third in the west if the Rams and 49ers improve rapidly. I think they'll be in it later than everyone predicts.

San Francisco 49ers (8 wins):

They surprised a lot of people last year and made a late playoff push. Now they're being mentioned as a potential favorite. Not yet, again, I say. Add them to the list of teams that are a year away. I like how the offense is shaping up, but teams will be ready for them and the passing game is still developing. The defense is coming along but needs more people. Another year just out of the playoffs seems likely.

St. Louis Rams (8 wins):

See Niners. Love the O, love the direction, but not enough D and are also a bit young in some places, too old in others. They used to have five receivers who could kill you at any moment. Now, can you name anyone besides Torry Holt? Issac Bruce is almost done.

More importantly: is Jeff Smoker still on this team?

[Don't worry about that one...]

Arizona Cardinals (7 wins):

And again, like the Niners and Rams, some think they could overtake Seattle. Nope. They're even greener than the last two. I do think their offense could be great, but the line needs improvement. It's getting there. I have no idea who any of their defenders are. Not a good sign for a team with this history. People have jumped on their bandwagon before with rough results.

AFC

AFC EAST

NE 13-3
NYJ 8-8
BUF 7-9
MIA 5-11

New England Patriots (13 wins):

Looked awfully mortal last season... and still almost won it all. Then they actually added some people. If they could make it that far without any receivers and a few holes on D, what can they do now?

Hate to say it, but they're the overwhelming favorites. I just don't see that many holes. Baltimore may be better on D, Indy on O, and San Diego has the best team, but the way they've performed, they way they're coached, I have to pick them as the champs. They won titles with much less talent than this.

And by the way, their division SUCKS, so it's not like they'll have a hard time getting to the playoffs and picking up wins. Egad....

New York Jets (8 wins):

No way are they going to sneak in there again. Their schedule sucked and they miraculously got a full season from Chaddington. It won't happen again. I don't know how their offense worked, but it did. They have some decent people now. They're gonna need them.

Buffalo Bills (7 wins):

Poor Buffalo. Ever since a brief, Flutie-fueled resurgence, they've been stuck in mediocrity. They always seem to get to 6,7, or 8 wins, and seem on the brink of doing something, and then nothing. Either the O is great and the D sucks or vice versa. They lost Takeo Spikes and the guy they traded for him, Darwin Walker. They've been questioning J. P. Losman ever since they drafted him, and now are shakily standing behind him.... mainly because there's no one else. 6 or 7 wins is a good mark again.

Miami Dolphins (5 wins):

Much like their upper state rival Bucs, they have a solid D but can't decide on a quarterback. Trent Green is okay, but he's a short term solution. Ronnie Brown should be a fantasy star, but he hasn't done it yet. The defense is still good, but it can't carry this team. They still need a massive overhaul.

AFC SOUTH

IND 11-5
JAX 8-8
TEN 6-10
HOU 3-13

Indianapolis Colts (11 wins):

They got it. Now do they keep it up or relax? I think they overcame huge mental obstacles, but they also got a wave of energy from the D to make it through the playoffs. It's hard to repeat, and they're happy to make it.

Of course, they are still one of the best teams. The offense won't slow down anytime soon. I just wonder how the D will keep it together again.

Jacksonville Jaguars (8 wins):

Good teams do not have quarterback problems like this. Supposed franchise savior Byron Leftwich has been hurt and inconsistent; backup David Garrard became a fan favorite for his Garcia-like efficient play, but in the end, though, neither of them have been that great.

The defense is great, and whatever running back is healthy can take this team far. But they can't make the playoffs in the loaded AFC without a passer.

[EDITOR UPDATE: They cut Leftwich without any deal today, so that means no controversy. But Garrard isn't the best guy either, and now they have no experienced backups. I don't think this will help.]

Tennessee Titans (6 wins):

Surprised a lot of people last year, especially with how fast Vince Young came in. Not this year. Their schedule is rougher and they lost a ton of people. Vince is great, but he might take a step back without any help. They won't surprise again and they won't get close to the postseason.

Houston Texans (3 wins):

Ever since Carolina and Jacksonville started off fast, the NFL has been harsh on expansion teams. Too harsh, perhaps? Both Houston and Cleveland have struggled to get out of the basement. Of course, it seems like they've both entrusted their early management to complete idiots.

It's tough to say if this is the worst run team in the league, but it's close. Arizona's ownership sucks, but they have some potential. Cincinnati turned the corner. Cleveland is trying hard. Basically, it's them and Detroit... not a good group to be in.

They gave up on David Carr, but he wasn't the problem. Their line has always been terrible. Matt Schaub was a good backup, but is he really any better an option? And then the whole not drafting Reggie Bush thing, which they tried to explain because Dominick Davis was great. He wasn't. In fact, he's gone, and even changed his name to start his life over. Wonderful.

This is gonna take a while....

AFC NORTH

PIT 10-6
BAL 10-6
CIN 9-7
CLE 4-12

Pittsburgh Steelers (10 wins):

Last year was a major letdown for them, for the weird occurrences of actually winning it all and then the Ben Accident. They never really got into it... and yet, they won 8 games. So why are people down on them? Assuming Ben comes back without any distractions, they ought to be right back in it.

Tomlin is a fine defensive coach, and that's all they need. They haven't lost too much from the great teams of 2 and 3 years ago, and they brought in some nice young guys. Ten wins is not a problem for this team, but they have to face a killer conference. I'm almost more worried about Willie Parker than Ben's health, because he carried this team.

Baltimore Ravens (10 wins):

After naming them my dark horse team several years in a row, I thought they'd do it. Then they couldn't score. Unlike the Super Bowl squad, efficiency and power running was just not enough. In today's league, offense is necessary. The Patriots rely on Brady, and the Steelers made it when Ben stepped up big. So I don't think Steve McNair is going to be enough anymore.

They did make a nice exchange of Willis McGahee for Jamal Lewis. And the defense is always good for 9 wins, without an offense. So they're still in it. But I can't take them over San Diego or New England without more balance on O.

Cincinnati Bengals (9 wins):

In the NFC they'd be up there with the Saints as a guaranteed playoff team. In the AFC, their great offense merely gets them in the playoff discussion. This team is going to score and put up numbers. If they get anything on D, they could win 12 games. If not, they could miss the playoffs. It's tough for me to put them over Pittsburgh or Baltimore right now, although they're a much different team. Nine wins sounds about right.

Cleveland Browns (4 wins):

See Texans, although I like how they're going now. They have a good nucleus of Brady Quinn, Braylon Edwards, and Kellen Winslow. Romeo Crennel is a good coach and he should be able to get the defense going. They just play in the wrong division. If they were in the South, or in the NFC, they might win 8 games... soon. Right now, right here, they just can't compete.

By the way, what happened to all their backs? Did Jim Brown put a curse on them after he left? They haven't had a star runner since.... well, him, in the 60's, and the only decent guy to come along since then made the weirdest fumble ever. In fact, I think it's solved: all Cleveland running backs are cursed. Jamal Lewis, old and slowing, isn't going to change that.

AFC WEST

SD 12-4
DEN 10-6
KC 7-9
OAK 6-10

San Diego Chargers (12 wins):

Out of nowhere, they turned it around, and now have the league's most ridiculous team. They have the best running back and probable best player; the best tight end; a good quarterback who still could be better; and a great defense.

Of course, they had all that last year and did nothing in the playoffs. I think they'll be smarter and more grounded this year, but it's hard for me to take them over the Patriots. Would you want Norv Turner in a game vs. Belichick? Nevermind that the Pats got a miraculous fumble after the interception - the Chargers just fell apart. So I can't pick them.

I like everything about this team but its coach and its receivers. I suppose if anything crazy happens, they could probably still win it all anyway. I do think Rivers will be better and figure out a way to get Gates and the young wideouts more involved. They're the best team in talent, but can they put it together?

Denver Broncos (10 wins):

It's hard for Shanahan to stay down for too long. He always manages to get to 9 or 10 wins with a decent team, so I think they have to be back in the playoff picture. The defense is fairly good, the running game will be solid, and they have enough weapons to help Jay Cutler. Here are two points I made during our fantasy draft, when I took Cutler and Travis Henry:

1. Cutler actually got to play last year, which is way better than throwing in a guy who's sat, even if he's been around a few years. He did okay, too. He should only get better this year.

2. It was recently discovered that Henry has fathered NINE kids to NINE different women. YOWZA! He's got some motivation. He'll be running from the child support payments, of which he will owe a s---load of money soon. I fully expect him to have the first 3,000 yard season.

[Okay, maybe not. But for a team that likes to change running backs, no one else is really a good pick. It's up to him.]

Kansas City Chiefs (7 wins):

Did they make the playoffs too? They're worse off than the Jets.

They do have a nice ball control offense, built around Larry Johnson and the stable, very slow passing game. Damon Huard looked decent last year, and Tony Gonzalez moves the sticks. This would be a great offense to go with an outstanding, smash mouth defense, like Baltimore.

..... Only their defense sucks.

Huh ????

Herm? HELLO? YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!!!!

Oakland Raiders (6 wins):

They'll be better off this year, because they couldn't be much worse. Their defense is actually good - better than most people realize. They could even make the playoffs with any semblance of an offense. They don't have that... at all.

Still, they have two decent but not great running backs, and some receivers, and two quarterbacks who have been okay... they can manage 5 or 6 wins. Maybe.

@@@@@@@@@

And that's how the regular season goes down.

[cues Jim Mora]

PLAYOFFS???

PLAYOFFS!!!!

DON'T TALK ABOUT PLAYOFFS!!!!

NFC: Seattle over Chicago (Carolina and Philly make it to second round)

AFC: New England over San Diego (Indy and Pittsburgh make it to second round)

SUPER BOWL XLVCM IIIV ( I forget what it is now):

New England 27, Seattle 20

This is boring as hell, but it's what I came up with after reviewing everything. I really hope that this doesn't happen... which is why I'm picking it. Enjoy my ill fortune, jerks!

college football bracket, entry 16

2007-08-17T14:50:00.000-04:00

In the iron state, this is life and death. A fitting end to the first round uber-rivalry picks.

# 16 AUBURN vs. # 17 ALABAMA

AUBURN

Auburn Tigers

Auburn, Alabama

SEC

Mascot: Bo Jackson (with help from Charles Barkley)

Pros: bo knows all, chuck rules the paint, video game football god

Cons: today, they might weigh 600 pounds combined

Analysis: They've always been good, but they don't have the stars like they used to.

vs.

ALABAMA

Alabama Crimson Tide

Tuscaloosa, AL

SEC

Mascot: former all-american kick returner Forrest Gump

Pros: purple heart winner, exposed Watergate, met three presidents, world ping pong champion, succesful shrimp company owner, single handedly invented jogging craze in 70's, helped Gary Sinise find God

Cons: You know, the people who actually lived suffered, while he went by unscathed. Life isn't fair.

Analysis: Yeah, right... if only Alabama was ever that likable.

VOTE NOW!!!! BAMA or AUBURN???

college football bracket, entry 15

2007-08-15T14:41:00.000-04:00

It's a showdown in the Pacific northwest!

# 15 OREGON vs. # 18 OREGON STATE

OREGON

Oregon Ducks

Eugene, OR

Pac Ten

Mascot: icon Steve Prefontaine (as portrayed by Billy Crudup)

Pros: legendary runner, man crush

Cons: driving skills (too tsun?)

Analysis: Supposed hippie school has a place in my heart.

vs.

OREGON STATE

Oregon State Beavers

Corvallis, OR

Pac Ten

Mascot: Ocho Cinco

Pros: ocho cinco catches, oncho cinco runs, ocho cinco doesn't back down

Cons: [head explodes from typing that]

Analysis: I like the state, and hear good things about this school, but they need some less annoying icons.

VOTE NOW!!!! OREGON OR STATE???

college football bracket, entry 14

2007-08-13T14:32:00.000-04:00

It's an SEC showdown! Chattanooga can host this game.

# 14 TENNESSEE vs. # 19 GEORGIA

TENNESSEE
Tennessee Volunteers

Knoxville, TN

SEC

Mascot: Peyton Manning

Pros: $$$$$$ ... and yeah, he won a Super Bowl....

Cons: from the new Webster's

consumer whore (n) - one who whores self out to market with no regard to self dignity
[see also Manning, Peyton]

Analysis: Interesting that his college team won title year AFTER he left.

vs.

GEORGIA
Georgia Bulldogs

Athens, GA

SEC

Mascot: Of Montreal

Pros: cool grooves, awesome live shows, refer to fans as "booty patrol"

Cons: ....wouldn't they get a little tired of Barnes' antics?

Analysis: Athens has great music scene, with them, Medeski, Widespread, and others... but do any of the sports fans know this?

VOTE NOW!!! TENN or UGA???

college football bracket, entry 13

2007-08-11T18:48:00.000-04:00

Virgin (ia) territory....

# 13 VA TECH vs. # 20 WEST VIRGINIA

VIRGINIA TECH
Virginia Polytechnical Institute Hokies

Blacksburg, VA

Mascot: Michael Vick

Pros: athletic ability, cool nickname, potential

Cons: future con

Analysis: Sadly, the only famous people associated with this school are him and that guy who shot everyone. Rough year for Tech....

VS.

WEST VIRGINIA
West Virginia Mountaineers

Morgantown, WV

Big East

Mascot: state icon John Kruk (as portrayed by Chris Farley)

Pros: led Phillies to unprecedented series, retired on compelte whim, one of best fat players ever

Cons: his state hasn't done much to improve image

Analysis: Meh, Kruk doesn't care if they light tires and couches on fire after big games. That's how they do it in Appalachia.
]

]

VOTE NOW!!! VA TECH or WVU???

college football bracket, entry 12

2007-08-10T18:34:00.000-04:00

Run for the Ozarks and cook up some moonshine!

# 11 LSU vs. # 22 ARKANSAS

L.S.U.
Louisiana State Tigers

Baton Rouge, LA

SEC

Mascot: Shaquille O'Neal
.
Pros: dominating center, aspiring law enforcement career, dissed Kobe

Cons: "I'm like the Pythagorean Theorum.... there is no answer." Yes, he graduated from here despite completely f-----g up a basic principle of 10th grade math.

Analysis: And you wonder why I don't trust big southern state schools.

vs.

ARKANSAS
Arkansas Razorbacks

Fayetteville, AR

SEC

Mascot: former prez (and Razorbacks backer) William J. Clinton
.

Pros: sax machine, had electric super super sex, possible first first man

Cons: antics may have cost Gore, probably could have done better

Analysis: Looks good now, eh?

VOTE NOW!!!! LSU or ARKANSAS????

college football bracket, entry 11

2007-08-08T18:16:00.000-04:00

Texas tussle flex the muscle... but no bonfires (too tsun?)

# 10 TEXAS vs. # 23 TEXAS A & M

TEXAS
Texas Longhorns

Austin, TX

Big Twelve

Mascots: Owen Wilson, Wes Anderson, & Richard Linklater (pictures for the Royal Rocket duo don't seem to work)

Pros: proving there may be worthwhile people in Texas

Cons: selling out? a little? ok not really...

Analysis: Interesting entry: nice school, great film program, beloved college town, unique atmosphere..... yet stuck in the middle of abhorrent state. What gives?

vs.

TEXAS A & M
Texas Agriculture & Manufacturing Institue Aggies

College Station, TX

Big Twelve

Mascot: famous alum Rip Torn

Pros: f you, f me, dodgeball legend, sultry king of France

Cons: slight drunk driving problem

Analysis: As much as we all love him, is it a good sign when he is always mentioned as one of the most famous people from this school?

VOTE NOW!! UT or AM?

college football bracket, entry 10

2007-08-06T14:07:00.001-04:00

Get off your tractors for one second, this is a battle of the great plains.

# 9 NEBRASKA vs. # 24 KANSAS STATE

NEBRASKA

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Lincoln, NE

Big Twelve

Mascot: Lawrence Phillips

Pros: see O.J.

Cons: at least he didn't kill anyone...yet...

Analysis: Yup. Still bitter, 13 years later. Thanks, Big ten, for waiting a while before you decided to join the party.

vs.

KANSAS STATE

Kansas State Wildcats

Manhattan, KS

Big Twelve

Mascot: Mitch Richmond

Pros: most underrated star in past 20 years, great guard, rookie of the year

Cons: played in Sacramento before Maloof-Petrie era

Analysis: Just like my boy Mitch Rich, they've really flown under the radar. Did you know they finished in the top ten a bunch of times over the past 15 years? Or that they were THISCLOSE to playing in the first BCS title game? Does anyone outside of the plains know this?

VOTE NOW! 'BRASKA OR K STATE???

college football bracket, entry 9

2007-08-04T18:06:00.000-04:00

boomer sooner boomer sooner shut up.

# 8 OKLAHOMA vs. # 25 OKLAHOMA STATE

OKLAHOMA

Oklahoma Sooners

Norman, OK

Big Twelve

Mascot: former QB and congressman J. C. Watts

Pros: sole Republican member of Congressional Black Caucus

Cons: oh wait, he's not in it, because they're all Dems... awkward...

Analysis: Charles Barkley said it best: Oklahoma is so racist, even the black people in Oklahoma hate black people.

vs.

OKLAHOMA STATE

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Stillwater, OK

Big Twelve

Mascot: former march hero Bryant "Big Country Reeves"

Pros: great dirt-stache, nickname, led team to final four

Cons: everything you'd stereotype about Oklahoma

Analysis: Other than the unlikely pairing of Thurman Thomas & Barry Sanders, this is really a hoops school.

VOTE NOW!! OK or OK ST??

college football bracket, entry 8

2007-08-03T17:39:00.000-04:00

It's the battle of the Wolverine state. Or the Spartan state, if you prefer. This Big Ten battle always produces.... battles.

# 7 MICHIGAN vs. # 26 MICHIGAN STATE

MICHIGAN

Michigan Wolverines

Ann Arbor, MI

Big Ten

Mascot: former president Gerald Ford

Pros: actually was MVP of football team, All-American center, likes having nachos, and maybe some beer

Cons: Chevy Chase ruined his career?

Analysis: Despite being dead now, I think Ford had the last laugh on that one.

vs.

MICHIGAN STATE

Michigan State Spartans

East Lansing, MI

Big Ten

Mascot: recent QB Jeff Smoker

Pros: For a time, he was smokin'!

Cons: For a time, he WAS smokin'.

Personal notes: Few of you know what I'm talking about, but for two years in Lancaster, this kid was seen as the second coming of Christ. Until one day in September of 1998. He was never the same. But he's supposedly on the Rams now, so that's nice.....

Also, Bill Simmons said he had a great porn name, which is the highest compliment anyone I've ever known has gotten.

Analysis: I love how I cant taunt a former high school rival when my only claim to fame is my team winning a game ten years ago that I had no actual participation in. God bless you, blogosphere.

VOTE NOW? UM OR MSU?

college football bracket, entry 7

2007-08-01T18:27:00.000-04:00

It's the Bowden Bowl!!! Which good ol' boy coach is actually coaching? Hint: it's not the one who might be dead already and merely propped up by the football equivalent of Andrew McCarthy and Jonathan Silverman.

# 6 FLORIDA STATE vs. # 27 CLEMSON

FLORIDA STATE

Florida State Seminoles

Talahassee, Florida

ACC

Mascot: former star halfback Burt Reynolds

Pros: biggest star in the world from 1976-81

Cons: .... really?

Analysis: Even picturing Burt as Jack Horner isn't enough to make me not hate this school.

vs.

CLEMSON

Clemson Tigers

Hootenanny, South Carolina

ACC

Mascot: Bob Jones

Pros: more Rapture-worthy than Duchovny at his highest

Cons: Well, he might have problems with Catholics, also inter-racial dating, also inter-religious dating, also pretty much any physical contact between opposite sexes (but then also homosexuality big time), also clothing of a tempting nature (which is pretty much anything that has buttons), also everyone who isn't in his narrow point of view... but you'd take campaign money from him, right?

Analysis: I know he has his own school, but can you think of anyone else relevant from South Carolina? (Colbert is too cool for this, and spent formative years in Chicago.)

VOTE NOW! FSU or CLEMSON?

college football bracket, entry 6

2007-07-30T17:56:00.000-04:00

It's a matchup of undersized underdogs. The last two major Catholic programs in the country face off for the right to lob Hail Marys and drink the wine.... and transubstantiate.

# 5 NOTRE DAME vs. # 28 BOSTON COLLEGE

NOTRE DAME

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

South Bend, IN

(no conference) (still) (amazingly)

Mascot: Daniel "Rudy" Ruettiger

Pros: gave 110%, had heart of a champion, never gave up, went the extra mile...

Cons: .... you know, an old football coach told me about this movie when I was playing back in high school. Of course, I grew up with cable, so I'd already seen it like four times when I was doing more important things. But I digress.

He wanted me to feel better about not getting any playing time during my varsity stint. I didn't have the heart to tell him that I didn't care. But when he said, "Look at Rudy! He got his butt kicked in practice for four years, but he never gave up, kept going, and he got in for that one play. He got his due. So keep that in mind." I had to to admit, "Well, actually, I kinda stopped practicing hard after the first half of sophomore year, hid when they were looking for scout team volunteers, feigned injuries, lost interest, stayed on the team mainly for resume-building purposes and team luncheons, and I still got to play a few series over a couple games and pretty much the entire second half of the Penn Manor game senior year.

But hey, it was a nice story."

The lesson? This movie is over the top, it kinda wasn't worth it for him, and Penn Manor sucks.

Analysis: Still lovable, I suppose.

vs.

BOSTON COLLEGE

Boston College Eagles

Boston, MA

ACC (formerly Big East)

Mascot: Doug Flutie

Pros: memorable hail mary pass, heisman, pride of Natick

Cons: .... tough to find. People just love Flutie.

Analysis: Flutie looks way more like a football player than Sean Astin, but BC doesn't have the history that the Irish do.

VOTE NOW! ND OR BC??

college football bracket, entry 5

2007-07-28T17:39:00.000-04:00

PRISON RODEO!

The state penitentiaries will be open for this one.....

# 4 MIAMI vs. # 29 COLORADO

MIAMI

U. Miami Hurricanes (not to be confused with Miami U. of Ohio)

Miami, FL (again, not Ohio)

ACC (formerly Big East)

Mascot: once star recruit Dwayne "the Rock" Johnson

Pros: knows what he is in fact cooking, also knows his and everyone's role, and that he is the proclaimed people's champion of... something

Cons: Liberty sucks! Go Danno's school!

...or is it Freedom? I always forget.

Analysis: I almost put up a picture of Michael Irvin in camouflage, but that's just obscene. Have I ever not hated anyone from this school?

vs.

COLORADO

Colorado Buffaloes

Boulder, CO

Big Twelve

Mascot: therapists (no, that's The Rapists, Mr. Connery)

Pros: Well, they didn't get their coach fired immediately, despite lots of transgressions.

Cons: ....uhhh... and why not?

Analysis: Okay, maybe I'm still bitter about the 1994 Heisman. But this school is full of trouble.

VOTE NOW! MIAMI OR COLORADO??

college football bracket, entry 4

2007-07-26T19:19:00.000-04:00

Put away the hardwood, this is a Southern-fried gridiron gangbuster... hyuck.

# 3 FLORIDA vs. # 30 LOUISVILLE

FLORIDA

Florida Gators

Gainesville, FL

SEC

Mascot: former coach and Heisman winner Steve Spurrier

Pros: won title (albeit cheap) (albeit that one last year wasn't much better)

Cons: kind of a douche

Analysis: I don't care if he's gone, he's still what I think of with this school. But hey, out of the three major Florida schools, I hate them the least.

VS.

LOUISVILLE

Lousiville Cardinals

Louisville, KE

Big East (after many random places)

Mascot: 1987 stud baller Pervis "Never Nervous" Ellison

Pros: led team to title as freshman

Cons: possibly biggest bust in NBA history

Analysis: This is still a basketball school until you can come up with more sweet nicknames like that for the gridiron.

VOTE NOW! FLORIDA or LOSUISVILLE?

college football bracket, entry 3

2007-07-24T17:40:00.000-04:00

It's a big ten battle! # 2 Ohio State vs. # 31 Wisconsin! Get out your defibilators!

OHIO STATE

THE Ohio State U. Buckeyes

Columbus, OH

Big Ten

Mascot: Andy Katzenmoyer & Maurice Clarett

Pros: We are THE Ohio State University. We do great in academic endeavors like golf, AIDS awareness, stealing cars, and other fine pursuits.

Cons: ha.... academia...

Analysis: They're the Florida State of the midwest. How's that for a backhanded compliment?

vs.

WISCONSIN

Wisconsin Badgers

Madison, WI

Big Ten

Mascot: Wando's Bar... http://www.wandosbarandgrill.com/

Pros: odd drinking receptacles, side of bacon served with every drink

Cons: early death a certainty

Analysis: Now THIS is a college town.

VOTE NOW! OHIO STATE OR WISCONSIN?

college football bracket, entry 2

2007-07-23T16:21:00.000-04:00

I realized after I set up the teams in The Real College Football Bracket (C) 2007 Justin Leo Inc. that my first test matchup isn't actually a real matchup. From now on, I will only be giving teams out in pairs, as to who will be playing each other in the first round.

You see, USC is #1, Penn State is # 12, actually. They aren't playing each other. They could meet up in the championship, potentially, but not yet.

USC (1) with O.J. is taking on (32) UCLA, natch....

Penn State (12) with the Hempfield crew is taking on Pitt (21), also natch....

First round: 1 vs. 32

USC (O.J. Simpson) vs. UCLA

(usc has been done)

UCLA

University of California at Los Angeles Bruins

Los Angeles, CA

Pac Ten

Mascot: former film student Jim Morrison

Pros: break on through, break on through

Cons: ...he is the lizard king.

Analysis: Wouldn't you kill to be at UCLA then? With him and Coppola, and hanging around with those great hoops teams?

Penn State (Beaver Ave. kids) vs. Pittsburgh

12 vs. 21

(penn state was done)

PITT

Pittsburgh Panthers

Greatest City in America, PA

Big East

Mascot: coach and alum Dave Wannestedt

Pros: stache

Cons: any point where he did not have the stache (if ever)

.......besides the fact Pitt sucks.

Analysis: They shouldn't even be here, but I like to torment them. You may whine for Dan Marino or Tony Dorsett, but I refuse to allow any 'burghian without the proper facial hair.

so......

VOTE NOW!!!!!

USC or UCLA? PSU or PITT?

the real college football bracket

2007-07-21T01:24:00.000-04:00

Ok, I came up with the final bracket. 32 programs, legends of college football, and the like. They're in order partly for how good they've been in the past 30 years, partly for good matchups.

1. USC ____________ 32. UCLA
2. Ohio State _______ 31. Wisconsin
3. Florida __________ 30. Louisville
4. Miami __________ 29. Colorado
5. Notre Dame ______ 28. Boston Colllege
6. Florida State ______ 27. Clemson
7. Michigan ________ 26. Michigan Sate
8. Texas __________ 25. Texas A & M
9. Oklahoma _______ 24. Oklahoma State
10. Nebraska _______ 23. Kansas State
11. LSU ___________ 22. Arkansas
12. Penn State _______ 21. Pitt
13. Virginia Tech _____ 20. West Virginia
14. Tennesee _______ 19. Georgia
15. Oregon _________ 18. Oregon State
16. Auburn _________ 17. Alabama

Just like there are tons of low level bowl games (no offense, the Poulain Weed Eater Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana), I figured we should have some quick listings for teams that didn't quite make the cut. Here they are in no random order:

WASHINGTON STATE
Mascot: Ryan Leaf
Analysis: The fact that they made the Rose Bowl twice in the past ten years (as opposed to Penn State and Iowa only doing it once) shows you how much the Pac Ten sucks.

GEORGIA TECH
Mascot: George O'Leary
Analysis: Liar. They haven't been that good.

RUTGERS
Mascot: James Gandolfini
Analysis: No offense, Tony Sporano, and also Simon and Stef, but this is still Jersey.

SYRACUSE
Mascot: Carmelo Anthony and Donovan McNabb
Analysis: The 'Cuse haven't done anything in football since Donno was there. And seriously...

... stop snitchin'.

OLE MISS
Mascot: The rest of the Manning family
Analysis: NO.

VIRGINIA
Mascot: Dave Matthews
Analysis: Even I've given up.

WASHINGTON
Mascot: former Sixers center Todd MacCullogh
Analysis: Love 'em, but no.

ARIZONA STATE
Mascot: Jimmy Kimmel
Analysis: Too drunk. But appropriate.

PURDUE
Mascot: Brian "Citizen Pain" Cardinal
Analysis: Ugly, bad contract, balding. You have to love Indiana sometimes.

B.Y.U.
Mascot: Jim McMahon
Analysis: Considering that I have lots of insider information on what goes on there, I'm even more amazed that he was at this school.

BOISE STATE
Mascot: the blue field
Analysis: Hurts the retina.

IOWA
Mascot: proud alum Tom Arnold
Analysis: .....That really says it all.

STANFORD
Mascot: Tiger Woods
Analysis: Wait, forget Wazzou... THEM making the Rose Bowl shows you how much the Pac Ten sucks.

DELAWARE
Mascot: Grotto's pizza
Analysis: A local legend, but no national recognition.

LEHIGH
Mascot: alums Kavan & Korn
Analysis: Look, I don't care how great your Engineering school is, no one outside of Eastern PA knows the difference between you and Lafayette.

LAFAYETTE
Mascot:?
Analysis: They're not Lehigh?

TEMPLE
Mascot: Bill Cosby
Analysis: Could play a great game of buck buck. Could also still suit up for this sorry squad.

LA SALLE
Mascot: that weird space exlporer one we had
Analysis: Wait, why do we even still have a team? Is it just so we can say that we have one and St. Joe's doesn't? It is, isn't it? Fantastic.

college football bracket, entry 1

2007-07-19T13:45:00.000-04:00

Since I haven't been paying attention to college football in a while, I decided to do something fun. I'm going to base my season preview on a mascot for every team - not their actual mascot, but an alum or former star that represents them. These people will get together in a random bracket inspired by Nick Norlen and Ryan Carey's version of bracket madness in the La Salle Collegian and hack it out, because college football certainly doesn't have a real playoff system. NOH! Though reports are that they may add an extra bowl after all the others in a few years... maybe.

This system will determine once and for all who the real winners are on Saturday. I'm hoping that everyone will vote as to who advances each week once the brackets are set. I'm going for at least 16 and maybe 32 if I can.

First entry:

USC

Southern California Trojans

Los Angeles, CA

Pacific Ten

Mascot: Orenthal James Simpson

Pros: Knifes through D, doesn't show mercy, was in three Naked Guns

Cons: http://www.rathergood.com/stabbypool/

Analysis: If you defeated USC, it must have been because you loved them very, very much.

PENN STATE

Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions

State College, PA

Big Ten

Mascot: 2002 Residents of 560 Beaver Ave. House

Pros: CP appearances, Yankee/Sox fights, knee reconstruction surgery experts Cons: shady tactics in getting on main campus by entering Golf program, large college Republican population

Analysis: For good or bad, they sure do represent dear ol' State.

more next time........