Looking back on last year: was I even close?

For the past year or two, I've been trying a different approach to my season preview. Instead of trying to pick exact win totals for each team, I've been looking at the official Vegas lines on the over/under for wins and calling it. This is a little easier to pick and keep track of. My goal was 75 % accuracy, or 24 out of 32 teams. I just realized that I still haven't looked to see how I did, and the next season is coming up soon. Let's review...

[what I wrote before last year will be in italics]


Arizona Cardinals - 8.5 - UNDER

Super Bowl hangovers are rough this decade, and for a team that barely won 9 games in a weak division, and has a 50 year old ugly QB....no dice. Is anyone even betting the over for this?

WRONG! Yikes. I thought this was a lock. I forgot how much the rest of the division still really sucked. BTW, Ken Whisenhunt deserves a lot of credit. Two consecutive playoff appearances in Arizona just doesn't happen, let alone a Super Bowl.

Atlanta Falcons - 8.5 - UNDER

They surprised people last year, but their schedule is tougher and people know better. A small part of me thinks they could prove me wrong again, but I'll go under.

WRONG! They barely got it, although they missed the playoffs. They're for real, I guess.

Baltimore Ravens - 8.5 - OVER

They were also a bit of a surprise, but they had a lot of holdovers from really good teams a few years ago. Their defense is still great, and they have a number of running backs, so it won't really matter if Flacco struggles. They'll just go simple like last year.

CORRECT. Not by much, but they made it.

Buffalo Bills - 7.5 - UNDER

They had some promise last year and they still couldn't crack 8 wins. Now they have no Jason Peters (thanks!) and no Marshawn Lynch for a while. Ouch. And if it wasn't obvious enough, no, I'm not thinking that the TO era will end well. Unlike Dallas and Philly, there may not even BE a honeymoon period to have go sour.

CORRECT. This is a really depressing team. I expect nothing from them.

Carolina Panthers - 8.5 - OVER

Why the drop off? They still have talent. Their playoff loss to the Cardinals changed some minds, but they are still a safe bet. Delhomme is a risk, but he played good enough last year, and like Baltimore, they can rely on running and D if they need to.

WRONG! They started off rough and couldn't make it up, though they actually came close. As it turned out, Delhomme's playoff catastrophe the year before was indeed a signal that he was cooked.

Chicago Bears - 8.5 - OVER

Get on the Bear bus! If they won 9 games last year without a QB, shouldn't they be able to do that again with a good one? I don't care if Cutler is immature or a dick or anything; he's way better than anyone they've had since McMahon.... who was a dick and mooned people and still won it all. I like this team. I have to, with Forte as the foundation of my fantasy squad, but really, I think they'll be good.

WRONG! Jesus, I fucked this up. And Forte ruined my fantasy season. Not a good time in Chitown.

Cincinnati Bengals - 6.5 - OVER

A minor surprise here. Some people have the Bengals as a sleeper. Merril Hoge even put them in the playoffs. I doubt that, but I can see them quietly getting 7 or 8 wins and making some strides. Lost in last year's misery was the fact that their defense finally improved. It's their offense that hurts, but they at least have some people for that now.

CORRECT. And they were even better than I thought. HogePodge is a clever guy.

Cleveland Browns - 7 - UNDER

Why do they have a better shot than the Bengals? There are no offensive stars on this team besides Braylon, and he's drop city. They have a QB battle that isn't going well for anyone and no one that I can really name. They'll just have to like basketball again.

CORRECT. Poor Cleveland. You always pick the worst thing to happen to them, because it will. This was too easy. I still don't see why people thought they'd be better than Cinncy.

Dallas Cowboys - 9 - OVER

Dammit. This is why Vegas is smart. They have the Cowboys exactly where I expect them. They've even finished with 9 wins quite a few times recently. I have them at 9 wins, maybe 10, but I hope I'm wrong and it all goes down in flames. I didn't want to go under and then watch them get ho, so I'll go over for a jinx. Honestly, they have the talent, and I like dumping TO (and that stupid bitch... well there's two stupid bitches gone!) and giving more young runners a chance. I can only pray Romo is ready to choke again.

CORRECT. As much as I hate it.

Denver Broncos - 7.5 - UNDER

Sorry guys. You don't give up a franchise QB under the age of 27, even if you don't like his attitude. I didn't expect them to win last year and they almost did. Now, it won't be so easy. They have all sorts of offensive issues and the awful defense hasn't gotten any better. Why did Dawkins have to come here?

WRONG! Technically, I was wrong, but I knew they wouldn't make the playoffs. Even after their hot start, I was cynical. You just don't give up a QB like that. So I will take a loss, but I will emotionally feel a moral victory here.

Detroit Lions - 5 - UNDER

Five wins is a good guess. I'll say 4 because the division is tough. They're getting there, slowly, but they are getting there.

CORRECT. You know you're a shitty franchise when 2-14 is considered a sign of progress.

Green Bay Packers - 9 - UNDER

A lot of people are really excited about Green Bay this year. They went 6-10 last year but the offense looked great and people have excused the defense because of injuries. They went 13-3 the year before.... so... hmmm... I say 8-8 and another year to figure it out.

WRONG! I really screwed up the Packers and Bears. I should've listened to the experts who were mostly right on this.

Houston Texans - 8 - UNDER

Again, right where I would expect them to be. I'd bet under just because the division is tough, they don't have offensive depth, and Schaub has had some injury problems.

WRONG! They were indeed a little better. They might actually make the playoffs soon.

Indianapolis Colts - 10 - OVER

They're a lock to win 10 every year, right? Last year they started slow and still got to 12. I can't see why not.

CORRECT. No matter what they do in the playoffs, they've won at least 11 games for many years in a row.

Jacksonville Jaguars - 8 - UNDER

I think they will come back, but not for a playoff berth. This is a tough call, but they need more receivers. They and Houston could make the playoffs if they got out of the south.

CORRECT. They're just not good enough to hang in this division.

Kansas City Chiefs - 6 - UNDER

They have the makings of an upstart, but after dumping Tony Gonzalez and not picking up another running back to spell LJ (was it really just a few years ago that he was a fantasy stud?), I think they have more rebuilding to do.

CORRECT. They had more rebuilding, but they did find a RB.

Miami Dolphins - 7 - OVER

I think they're going to drop back to Earth this year, but 7 is a big leap. Or is it? I say 8, the division still sucks. Their offense was thought to be dead but it's not that bad. They won't sneak up on anyone, but they won't go back to the cellar.

WASH. For some reason, I thought I won this and the Dolphins still snuck in 8 or 9 wins. Maybe I had them confused with Atlanta. Vegas is good. They always know.

Minnesota Vikings - 9 - OVER

I realize as I write this that I am putting faith in Mecember-ve, not to mention Brad Childress. Ah gawd! But if they can win 10 games with no QB play, a washed up guy can be an improvement. They have the wideouts and AP to carry them, and the defense. They won't go anywhere in the playoffs, but they should be in it.

CORRECT. Indeed, ol' ballslinger was more than enough for them to get 12 wins. And may that be the last time we talk about him for a while.

New England Patriots - 11.5 - UNDER

I think they'll be good again, I just have a hard time saying they will definitely win 12 games. 10 or 11 will still take the division easily and set them up for a playoff run.

CORRECT. And they were worse, and went nowhere in the playoffs. Finally.

New Orleans Saints - 8.5 - OVER

I have lost tons of imaginary money on this team the past few years. I didn't buy their resurgence until it was too late. Last year I thought they'd kill that division and they finished last, albeit with 8-8. With Atlanta and Tampa maybe hurting, and their offense not slowing down anytime soon, it's not hard to see 9 or 10 wins.

CORRECT. Finally! I never get the Saints right. Either I jump on the bandwagon too late or too early. They were a lot better than what I said, but I at least had them in the playoffs.

New York Giants - 10 - OVER

As much as I don't like it, the G Men have become the most reliable team in the NFC. They won 12 games without a receiving core and are working on that. Eli is still a little overrated, but they seem to be a lock now to win 11 games every year.

WORNG! Of course, half the ones I was most confident about failed. They just didn't have it. I don't know where they are now.

New York Jets - 7 - UNDER

Seven wins is right where I see them, but I can take fewer because they have a rookie QB (and he's extra inexperienced) and I can't name any of their receivers besides Cotchery. (And I can only name him because it's unique.)

WRONG! I did not see Sexy Rexy and the rebirth of Jets football coming. Though it should be noted that they only won 9 games (same as the year before, which was seen then as a disappointment) and made the playoffs because of tiebreakers and teams resting starters. But they're good.

Oakland Raiders - 5.5 - UNDER

I was tempted until I realized what always happens here. 6 or 7 wins is possible, but then how are they going to pass? Russell is still raw and they have no receivers. It would be nice if they had a solid front office and coaching... but...... Kiff's dead.

CORRECT. Just barely. I still don't know how they got to 5.

Philadelphia Eagles - 9.5 - OVER

As up and down as they've been, they should get to 10 wins. They really should. They have some purpose with playing for Jim Johnson's memory and their best receiver core in a while. I am cautiously optimistic, which is about as good as I can be with this team anymore.

CORRECT. Well, at least they exceeded my expectations in some capacity.

Pittsburgh Steelers - 10.5 - UNDER

A slight dis, but I have them right at 10 wins. 11 or 12 is certainly possible. There's always a SB hangover, even if minor, that no one besides the Pats have gotten through. They always seem to be an injury away and full of guys who COULD get hurt but don't, so I'll err on the cautious side.

CORRECT. Caution served me well. Though they still got close with all that turmoil.

San Diego Chargers - 9.5 - OVER

They have the most talent. The division sucks. Norv is still shaky, but they should run rampant in the regular season. Playoffs? Who knows. But they can win 13 or 14 games with this sked.

CORRECT. Way too easy. They can always win games in the regular season. Playoffs are another thing, but how could they not tear down that division?

San Francisco 49ers - 7 - OVER

This is a tough call, but I like Singletary and what he's done. I don't know how Crabtree plays out, but they made strides last year and they didn't lose anything. They have some depth on offense in case some of these young guys don't pan out.

CORRECT. They just made it. Samurai Mike has something going.

Seattle Seahawks - 7.5 - OVER

I really like them to win the division. They had a ton of injuries last year and couldn't get it together, but now, they are strong. They have the most talent and balance in the division.

WRONG! Ooof. Big miss. I thought they'd bounce back, but they were done. I don't know if Pete Carroll knows what he's getting into.

St. Louis Rams - 5.5 - UNDER

Some people are calling them a sleeper. I'm calling them a team with only two offensive players who can do anything and are hurt all the time. And no D. It would be a repeat miracle of their dream season ten years ago for them to do anything. Miracles don't repeat. I think.

CORRECT. Who the fuck was calling them a sleeper? They're terrible.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6.5 - UNDER

They really aren't that bad, and were almost in the playoffs last year, but a new QB and a drastically different coaching change just take time.

CORRECT. They're going to take a lot of time to get better.

Tennessee Titans - 9 - OVER

They don't look special, but they didn't last year, and they won 13 games. They have a solid D and running foundation, and that should be good for 10 wins. Jeff Fisher is always worth the over. He's done better than expected every year.

WRONG! Fisher finally had a down year.

Washington Redskins - 8 - UNDER

Seven wins sounds right, even if I can see them going to 9 and sneaking in the playoffs. I don't like the way they dissed Jason Campbell.

CORRECT. They were much worse. Campbell is gone.


hmmm... seems like I missed a lot....

Final tally = 20 out of 32 correct, 62.5 percent. Not what I wanted, but good. A nice bar for me to set.