Leo's Season Preview '09

I always do a season preview, but this year I thought I'd change it up a little bit. I've noticed that Vegas oddsmakers are always pretty good at predicting things. That's why they make so much cash. I was looking at their odds for the season, and they usually know right where to go. So, this year, I'm going to post the over/under (predicted number of wins) for every team in wins, and then call it. I'd like to invite you to try this as well; it's more fun than trying to guess wins on your own.

[I started this before week one and I had my projections, but I couldn't get it out in time. I swear this is what I picked.]

Arizona Cardinals - 8.5 - UNDER


Super Bowl hangovers are rough this decade, and for a team that barely won 9 games in a weak division, and has a 50 year old ugly QB....no dice. Is anyone even betting the over for this?

Atlanta Falcons - 8.5 - UNDER

They surprised people last year, but their schedule is tougher and people know better. A small part of me thinks they could prove me wrong again, but I'll go under.

Baltimore Ravens - 8.5 - OVER


They were also a bit of a surprise, but they had a lot of holdovers from really good teams a few years ago. Their defense is still great, and they have a number of running backs, so it won't really matter if Flacco struggles. They'll just go simple like last year.

Buffalo Bills - 7.5 - UNDER

They had some promise last year and they still couldn't crack 8 wins. Now they have no Jason Peters (thanks!) and no Marshawn Lynch for a while. Ouch. And if it wasn't obvious enough, no, I'm not thinking that the TO era will end well. Unlike Dallas and Philly, there may not even BE a honeymoon period to have go sour.

Carolina Panthers - 8.5 - OVER

Why the drop off? They still have talent. Their playoff loss to the Cardinals changed some minds, but they are still a safe bet. Delhomme is a risk, but he played good enough last year, and like Baltimore, they can rely on running and D if they need to.

[See? You know I didn't post this after week one. ]

Chicago Bears - 8.5 - OVER

Get on the Bear bus! If they won 9 games last year without a QB, shouldn't they be able to do that again with a good one? I don't care if Cutler is immature or a dick or anything; he's way better than anyone they've had since McMahon.... who was a dick and mooned people and still won it all. I like this team. I have to, with Forte as the foundation of my fantasy squad, but really, I think they'll be good.

Cincinnati Bengals - 6.5 - OVER

A minor surprise here. Some people have the Bengals as a sleeper. Merril Hoge even put them in the playoffs. I doubt that, but I can see them quietly getting 7 or 8 wins and making some strides. Lost in last year's misery was the fact that their defense finally improved. It's their offense that hurts, but they at least have some people for that now.

Cleveland Browns - 7 - UNDER

Why do they have a better shot than the Bengals? There are no offensive stars on this team besides Braylon, and he's drop city. They have a QB battle that isn't going well for anyone and no one that I can really name. They'll just have to like basketball again.

Dallas Cowboys - 9 - OVER

Dammit. This is why Vegas is smart. They have the Cowboys exactly where I expect them. They've even finished with 9 wins quite a few times recently. I have them at 9 wins, maybe 10, but I hope I'm wrong and it all goes down in flames. I didn't want to go under and then watch them get ho, so I'll go over for a jinx. Honestly, they have the talent, and I like dumping TO (and that stupid bitch... well there's two stupid bitches gone!) and giving more young runners a chance. I can only pray Romo is ready to choke again.

Denver Broncos - 7.5 - UNDER

Sorry guys. You don't give up a franchise QB under the age of 27, even if you don't like his attitude. I didn't expect them to win last year and they almost did. Now, it won't be so easy. They have all sorts of offensive issues and the awful defense hasn't gotten any better. Why did Dawkins have to come here?

Detroit Lions - 5 - UNDER

Five wins is a good guess. I'll say 4 because the division is tough. They're getting there, slowly, but they are getting there.

Green Bay Packers - 9 - UNDER

A lot of people are really excited about Green Bay this year. They went 6-10 last year but the offense looked great and people have excused the defense because of injuries. They went 13-3 the year before.... so... hmmm... I say 8-8 and another year to figure it out.

Houston Texans - 8 - UNDER

Again, right where I would expect them to be. I'd bet under just because the division is tough, they don't have offensive depth, and Schaub has had some injury problems.

Indianapolis Colts - 10 - OVER

They're a lock to win 10 every year, right? Last year they started slow and still got to 12. I can't see why not.

Jacksonville Jaguars - 8 - UNDER

I think they will come back, but not for a playoff berth. This is a tough call, but they need more receivers. They and Houston could make the playoffs if they got out of the south.

Kansas City Chiefs - 6 - UNDER

They have the makings of an upstart, but after dumping Tony Gonzalez and not picking up another running back to spell LJ (was it really just a few years ago that he was a fantasy stud?), I think they have more rebuilding to do.

Miami Dolphins - 7 - OVER

I think they're going to drop back to Earth this year, but 7 is a big leap. Or is it? I say 8, the division still sucks. Their offense was thought to be dead but it's not that bad. They won't sneak up on anyone, but they won't go back to the cellar.

Minnesota Vikings - 9 - OVER

I realize as I write this that I am putting faith in Mecember-ve, not to mention Brad Childress. Ah gawd! But if they can win 10 games with no QB play, a washed up guy can be an improvement. They have the wideouts and AP to carry them, and the defense. They won't go anywhere in the playoffs, but they should be in it.

New England Patriots - 11.5 - UNDER

I think they'll be good again, I just have a hard time saying they will definitely win 12 games. 10 or 11 will still take the division easily and set them up for a playoff run.

New Orleans Saints - 8.5 - OVER

I have lost tons of imaginary money on this team the past few years. I didn't buy their resurgence until it was too late. Last year I thought they'd kill that division and they finished last, albeit with 8-8. With Atlanta and Tampa maybe hurting, and their offense not slowing down anytime soon, it's not hard to see 9 or 10 wins.

New York Giants - 10 - OVER

As much as I don't like it, the G Men have become the most reliable team in the NFC. They won 12 games without a receiving core and are working on that. Eli is still a little overrated, but they seem to be a lock now to win 11 games every year.

New York Jets - 7 - UNDER

Seven wins is right where I see them, but I can take fewer because they have a rookie QB (and he's extra inexperienced) and I can't name any of their receivers besides Cotchery. (And I can only name him because it's unique.)

Oakland Raiders - 5.5 - UNDER

I was tempted until I realized what always happens here. 6 or 7 wins is possible, but then how are they going to pass? Russell is still raw and they have no receivers. It would be nice if they had a solid front office and coaching... but...

... Kiff's dead.

Philadelphia Eagles - 9.5 - OVER

As up and down as they've been, they should get to 10 wins. They really should. They have some purpose with playing for Jim Johnson's memory and their best receiver core in a while. I am cautiously optimistic, which is about as good as I can be with this team anymore.

Pittsburgh Steelers - 10.5 - UNDER

A slight dis, but I have them right at 10 wins. 11 or 12 is certainly possible. There's always a SB hangover, even if minor, that no one besides the Pats have gotten through. They always seem to be an injury away and full of guys who COULD get hurt but don't, so I'll err on the cautious side.

San Diego Chargers - 9.5 - OVER

They have the most talent. The division sucks. Norv is still shaky, but they should run rampant in the regular season. Playoffs? Who knows. But they can win 13 or 14 games with this sked.

San Francisco 49ers - 7 - OVER

This is a tough call, but I like Singletary and what he's done. I don't know how Crabtree plays out, but they made strides last year and they didn't lose anything. They have some depth on offense in case some of these young guys don't pan out.

Seattle Seahawks - 7.5 - OVER

I really like them to win the division. They had a ton of injuries last year and couldn't get it together, but now, they are strong. They have the most talent and balance in the division.

St. Louis Rams - 5.5 - UNDER

Some people are calling them a sleeper. I'm calling them a team with only two offensive players who can do anything and are hurt all the time. And no D. It would be a repeat miracle of their dream season ten years ago for them to do anything. Miracles don't repeat. I think.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6.5 - UNDER

They really aren't that bad, and were almost in the playoffs last year, but a new QB and a drastically different coaching change just take time.

Tennessee Titans - 9 - OVER

They don't look special, but they didn't last year, and they won 13 games. They have a solid D and running foundation, and that should be good for 10 wins. Jeff Fisher is always worth the over. He's done better than expected every year.

Washington Redskins - 8 - UNDER

Seven wins sounds right, even if I can see them going to 9 and sneaking in the playoffs. I don't like the way they dissed Jason Campbell.


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That does it for regular season predictions. As for playoffs, the Colts, Patriots, and Chargers are the three teams overwhelmingly picked to win the big one. I like the Colts and I don't know why. As for the NFC, my cautious optimism is too cautious for me to say anything, but I feel pretty good. There are a lot of tough teams to worry about. What am I feeling.... how about....

Colts over Giants. That's right, a Manning vs. Manning bowl. Just shoot me in the face now.