Arizona 8 - UNDER
Ugly QB is gone. They have no faith in their guys. And Boldin is gone, so Fitzgerlad will be triple teamed mercilessly. I know the division sucks, and I like what Whisenhunt has done, but they're due for a slippage.
CORRECT. Yeah, they suck. That's fine. That's fine. That's fine.
Atlanta 9.5 - OVER
They're a trendy pick in the NFC. I thought they would fall back to Earth last year, but they still managed 9 wins. I don't think they're the favorites as many say, but they should get to 10 wins.
CORRECT. I still don't know if they are a contender, but they got here with ease.
Baltimore 9.5 - OVER
Another trendy pick. I like what they've done with adding Boldin and the development of Flacco.
CORRECT. They'repretty good.
Buffalo 5.5 - UNDER
Eventually, this whole city will commit a mass suicide. Or maybe Cleveland will beat them to it.
CORRECT. Although they didn't seem too bad at times.
Carolina 6.5 - UNDER
They actually weren't that bad last year, but they had no passing game and they still don't. I am tempted, but I don't trust them.
CORRECT. They're just awful.
Chicago 7.5 - OVER
I think 8-8 is reasonable. They have some receivers now.
CORRECT. Actually they were much better than that.
Cinnc 8.5 - UNDER
I didn't take them seriously last year, and they ended up doing good. This year, the division is tough and I have to think/hope they will self-destruct.
CORRECT. Who the hell thought this would work?
Cleveland 5.5 - UNDER
Eventually, this whole city will commit a mass suicide. Or maybe Buffalo will beat them to it.
CORRECT. Although they were close. They were competetive.
Dallas 10.5 - UNDER
10.5 is just a little too high. I think 10 is more likely. Their schedule is tough, the division is a nightmare, Wade is a softy, I have to go under.
CORRECT. Thank god I went under. I didn't see this collapse coming, but I love it.
Denver 7 - PUSH (under if pushes don't count)
They almost proved me wrong last year when I predicted doom for them, then fell apart anyway. But now they have no receivers. But the division sucks. 7 is just about right..... so...... eh...
???? I won't count this. I said push with maybe under. They were bad. I should've just said that.
Detroit 5.5 - UNDER
This seems a little high for them. I do think they are finally on a good track, but still taking baby steps.
WRONG. They were just a tad over. Weird season - they seemed really competetive early on but had a bad record, then Stafford got hurt, then they ended up winning some games anyway.
GBay 9.5 - OVER
This is easy. They won 11 last year and they're still improving. Uncertainty about the Vikings helps.
CORRECT. Just barely.
Houston 8.5 - OVER
I don't trust them, but I can also see them sneaking into the playoffs this year. 9 wins is tempting.... they do get to play the AFC west.
WRONG. Ouch. My first really bad call. I thought they'd put it together, and when they opened up by beating the Colts and showing they had a good running game, I thought for sure they'd be good. Their defense just sucks.
Indy 10.5 - OVER
They haven't won less than 11 games in quite a long time. I don't see why that stops this year. They keep bringing in guys around Peyton.
WRONG. Almost! But no. This is the year Indy and San Diego finally slipped a little.
Jax 6.5 - UNDER
7 wins sounds about right, but their division is tough and they've been in a funk the past few years.
WRONG. They made a surprising run for the division until they fell apart in the last few weeks.
KC 6.5 - OVER
A minor surprise. I think they can get to 7 or 8 wins. They have some people. I like them better than the Raiders or Broncos, which isn't saying much, but it gets them to second place.
CORRECT. They were actually better than that.
Miami 8.5 - UNDER
They weren't terrible last year after their big surprise season, but they still have question marks.
CORRECT. And that question mark is QB. Never a good sign.
Minnesota 9.5 - OVER
Two years ago, when they has no passing game of note, they still managed to get 10 wins. So even if Favre finally shows his age and the receivers are hurting, they should be up there. This is a little more risky than I thought it would be....
WRONG. My god, this was wrong. But I'm giddy to see it all end.
NEngland 9.5 - OVER
I think they get back to 10 wins. Brady will get better and they always seem to be there.
CORRECT. Amazing that Vegas didn't love them like they usually do.
Nawlins 11 - PUSH (under if no pushes)
I was originally thinking they would have a big letdown. It's not their fault. A lot of good teams have Super Bowl hangovers. But now, after seeing them pick up that great offense where it left off, I think they'll be ok. Still, asking for another 12 or 13 wins is tough. I think they get to 10 or 11.
CORRECT. Wow, I said 11 on the dot and it happened. I'm taking this one.
NYGiants 9 - OVER
This is tough. Things went bad for them and they still got 8-8. They're always lurking. I will pick them and hope I'm wrong. I did notice that their schedule, while obviously similar to Philly's, has Seattle and Carolina as its flex games. Dammit! That's just not fair!
CORRECT. Good deal! They didn't make the playoffs but I got it right!
NYJets 9.5 - UNDER
I can see them having a slight step back before they get to be a real contender. They have offensive problems to fix, and people will be gunning for them. Plus they were kinda lucky to get to 9 wins last year in the first place. Sorry, doctor. Sorry, revenge of the curse of Rex Ryan's gut's ghost.
WRONG. I should've bought them. Though they are still the last seed.
Oakland 6.5 - UNDER
A lot of people have them as a surprise team. Their reasoning is that, if they won 5 games with a godawful, absolutely terrible, syrup-addicted idiot at quarterback, they should win 7 or 8 with a mediocre guy. Not a bad idea. But what weapons does he have? He had better talent than this in Washington and couldn't score.
WRONG. Stupid McFadden. I hate you.
Philly 8.5 - OVER
I was going to devote a whole post to what I thought about the hometown boys, but let's just do it here. I will break it down mathematically by groups.
I think splitting the division straight up is a pretty good scenario; all those teams are tough and the Redskins will be extra motivated. 3-3 would be a decent showing. I know people will tell me that they can sweep the Skins, and maybe, but if they screw up that, and one of the Giants or Cowboys games, they can't recover. They go up and down in their matchups; last year they had the Giants pegged but couldn't handle the Cowboys. In other years, it reverses. Every division game is a battle this year and I still think a straight split would be a relief.
They also play everyone from the NFC north. The easy thing to say is that Bears and Lions will be pushovers, while Packers and Vikings will be tough. But the Eagles have struggled in recent years against the Bears, even when they were just ok. Chitown is just one of those teams that give them trouble. I'd like to think they can take care of that now and maybe steal one against the good teams. 2-2 is safe, 3-1 is possible.
Their cross-conference schedule takes them to the AFC south. This is a tough division to pick. Indy is the only guaranteed juggernaut, but Tennessee is usually good. Houston was decent last year and boasts a strong offense. Jacksonville is another odd team that has given the Eagles problems even when they haven't been good. I remember back in 2002, when the Eagles were riding high and a Super Bowl favorite, they went 1-3 against this division, only beating the expansion Texans in their first year. They only lost one more game that whole year, but they struggled vs. these teams. In 2006, they went 1-3 again vs. this division but still made the playoffs. Crazy! So I don't feel entirely safe. Once again, 2-2 is reasonable, 3-1 is possible.
The last two games are the flex games, against one team in each other division in their conference that finished in the same place as them. This year it's San Francisco and Atlanta, two very trendy picks. Although the John Taylors are mostly trendy because everyone else in their division sucks. I'll say splitting these games is a good measure. The Eagles beat both of them last year without much trouble, so that's nice. 1-1 safe, 2-0 if they pull it together.
So what does it all add up to? The brave pick is 10-6. The safe bet is 8-8. I can also see disaster in some places if Kolb gets off to a rough start. I will note that their early schedule is a little easier (Lions and Jags in the first month) and the last month (Cowboys twice, Vikings, Giants) could be brutal. I hope this will let Kolb build up some confidence. It's all about him this year. How he looks not only impacts this year, but also the next five or six. I've got my fingers crossed, CROSSED!
I will go in between and say 9-7. Seems possible. The realist in me says 8-8 is likely. The optimist in me is pretty much dead, but would say 10-6. The Philly fan in me sees 7-9 or worse, chaos in the street, foxes, people getting drunk and lighting things on fire. Let's pray for 9-7.
CORRECT. After all that, it wasn't really that hard.
Pittsburrrgh 9 - OVER
Let's also look at the Steelers by the numbers. People are focused on their first 4 games without Rapey McGropeington. (Rapelisberger? eh. too easy.) It's kind of tough. Tennessee, who knows. Tampa sucks. Baltimore will be tough. Atlanta is tough. Could see a split, could see 1-3 and panic setting in.
With the rest of the year, they have 4 winnable games vs. the state of Ohio, 3 they should take with Raiders, Bills, and Panthers, and 5 tough matchups: Saints, Ravens, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots. So if they take the split early, sweep Browns and Bengals, take care of biz, and go 2-3 in that tough group, that gives them 11 wins. That's not so hard to see. And they might screw up against Cinncy, but they might take one of those tough teams. 9-7 is the low estimate. And even though last year was disastrous, remember that they still won 9 games and missed the playoffs only by tiebreakers. They were still close with all those problems. They've gotten better, and once a hopefully humbled Ben gets back, they should be fine.
CORRECT. You had to figure they'd bounce back.
SDiego 10.5 - OVER
Look guys, it's easy. They win games in the regular season. Especially when their division sucks, which it will again this year. Don't worry about how bad they will choke in the playoffs. This bet is purely for the regular season. They can do that. Easy.
WRONG. Godammit! They always waited until the playoffs to screw it up. Not this year.
SFran 9 - OVER
This is bullshit. Not only do they play in the weakest division, but they have an easy schedule outside of it too. They play the AFC west, which they have to at least split, and the NFC south, which they also should split. Even if they lose a division game, which ain't likely, they could get 9 wins without a sweat. I was hoping that I could find a crack in their confidence and pick someone else. This isn't the first time they've been a buzz team, and the other times they didn't come through..... but they have to now, everyone else is dead. I wish the Eagles had this fucking schedule. They should move to LA just for one year so they can play in the NFC west and I can see them. Seriously, Stev.... you win because there is no one left. Congrats?
WRONG. Singletary rightly was fired if he couldn't get 7 wins with this cupcake schedule.
Seattle 6.5 - OVER
I really wanted to say that they would surprise everyone and overtake the 49ers. They weren't so bad so long ago.... right? Then I heard them being described as the "least talented team overall." Ouch. They have been pretty bad for the past 2 years. I have a wild feeling in the back of my head that with Hasselbeck (with Warner gone, he's technically the best and most accomplished QB in this division) still around, they could make a move. But it doesn't seem likely. Oh yeah, and I don't trust Pete Carroll as an NFL guy. I guess I will give them 7 wins and a minor turnaround.
But if they do make a run.... so help me god....
CORRECT. Possibly the most bizarre turn of events here: I debated whether or not to pick the Seahawks to win the division, I went over just in case, and then they did win the division, but only beat the over by half a game. Welcome to the NFC west.
St. Louis 4.5 - UNDER
They're just bad. A rookie QB without any good receivers isn't helping.
WRONG. They were the big surprise this year. Bradford is looking real nice.
Tampa 6 - UNDER
Their defense is good and will usually be so. The offense sucks, and unlike the Panthers, they don't have stud running backs to rely on.
WRONG. LeGarrette Blount punched my prediciton in the face. Big run for them. Really impressed.
Tennessee 8 - OVER
This is a hard team to figure out. They had almost given up on Vince Young, then he saved them. They usually do better than expected. In Vince's rookie year, they managed to go 8-8 when no one saw it. The next year they made the playoffs when no one liked them that much. The next year they went 13-3. Last year was the first underacheiving year they've had in a while. Jeff Fisher does good work. So I'll take the over basically on that history. As I noticed with the Texans, they get to play the AFC west. As I noticed with the Steelers, they face them without Ben. Hmmm.
WRONG. Jeff Fisher usually does better, but now, I don't know. They started out fine, but then Vince Young and Chris Johnson started having weird things happen.
Washington 7.5 - OVER
8 wins sounds right. They'll be a little better. Too much drama and not enough offense, but better.
WRONG. Mike Shanahan is questioning his own existence right now.
Final tally: 18-14.
That sucks. I got 20 last year, and I was hoping for 24. Maybe some day. Perhaps it's good that I don't have any money to gamble with. I think the whole AFC south and most of the NFC screwed me. To next year!
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