a look at the Eagles, because why not

Hi there. I'm still making my yearly win total predictions on here, no matter how terrible they have become. Right now I wanted to break down the win prediction on the hometown team since I haven't done that in a while. Let's take a look at the Eagles and their upcoming schedule game by game:

1		September 7	1:00PM ET		Jacksonville Jaguars
2		September 15	8:30PM ET	@	Indianapolis Colts
3		September 21	1:00PM ET		Washington Redskins
4		September 28	4:25PM ET	@	San Francisco 49ers
5		October 5	1:00PM ET		St. Louis Rams
6		October 12	8:30PM ET		New York Giants
7					Bye Week
8		October 26	4:05PM ET	@	Arizona Cardinals
9		November 2	1:00PM ET	@	Houston Texans
10		November 10	8:30PM ET		Carolina Panthers
11		November 16	1:00PM ET	@	Green Bay Packers
12		November 23	1:00PM ET		Tennessee Titans
13		November 27	4:30PM ET	@	Dallas Cowboys
14		December 7	4:25PM ET		Seattle Seahawks
15		December 14	8:30PM ET		Dallas Cowboys
16		December 20	4:30PM ET	@	Washington Redskins
17		December 28	1:00PM ET	@	New York Giants

On the onset, I think they got a pretty decent break in scheduling. The other divisions they play this year are the NFC West (yikes!) and the AFC South (much better). Their two extra games (the teams in the NFC that finished in same spot as them in the other divisions, besides the one they were already going to play) are against Carolina and Green Bay. That's not so bad, considering the Cowboys (who finished second) will have to play the Bears (on the road) and New Orleans. (Also note that the Giants finished third and will end up with Detroit and Atlanta, who could both be really improved.) 

Playing the NFC west is tough; all 4 of those teams have great defenses and of course two of them played in the NFC championship. The Eagles did manage to beat the Cardinals last year, which I thought was their most impressive win. If they go 2-2 against this part of the schedule, I'd be satisfied. St. Louis at home is the only one I feel good about, honestly. 1-3 is rough, but very possible. 

The AFC south is easier, although the toughest teams, Indy and Houston, are on the road. Houston should be way better this year and was not nearly as bad as their record last year. I was hoping for Jacksonville and Tennessee as road teams to get a schedule break, but no. I'd like to think they can go 3-1 against this part of the schedule, but they've historically had problems with this division every few years when it comes up. 2-2 would be hard, but I can see it. Suffice to say, if they lose to the Jags or Titans at home, there will be a lot of broken chairs/bottles/televisions/bones/windshields/marriages in the greater Philadelphia area.

I say that they lucked out a little in the two variable games because they won the division last year and that's a pretty good slate, especially compared to the Cowboys and Giants. They have to play other division winners, but Seattle was already in there because they play the NFC west. Green Bay on the road will be tough, (yeah the Eagles beat them last year but that was when Rodgers was hurt and they started a guy named Scott Tolzein, which is clearly a witness protection moniker) but Carolina is going to slip this year after losing all their receivers and a ton of defenders. That's a Monday nighter at home, and it should be a win. 1-1 here is good, with a small chance for 2-0.

Finally, we get to the divisional games. It seems like I always end up picking them to split the division evenly, unless I feel like someone (usually the Redskins) is awful enough to call a sweep. Last year, they split with the Cowboys and Giants and did sweep the Skins. Going back several years, they've usually gone at least 4-2 in the division unless something really awful happened. They haven't gone under 3-3 except in 2012 in a long time. I think the Giants will be a little better, the Redskins will be a lot better if Griffin is healthy, the Cowboys should be the same. 3-3 is a must, 4-2 is possible.

So let's add this up. If I go with my general estimates, they finish with 9 wins. Pessimistically, I have them at 7 wins. My most optimistic is probably 11 wins, but they'd need a lot to go right for that. As an Eagles fan, I am certainly not an optimist. 9 wins sounds about right, and that's exactly what Vegas has them at. The bookmakers always seem to know....