Doing this in rapid fire, on a train, with three work things hanging over me...
ARIZONA 5 - OVER
ATLANTA - 8.5 - UNDER
BALTIMORE - 8.5 - OVER
BUFFALO - 7 - UNDER
CAROLINA - 7.5 - OVER
CINCINNATI - 6 - UNDER
CHICAGO - 9 - UNDER
CLEVELAND - 9 - UNDER
DALLAS - 9 - OVER
DENVER - 7 - UNDER
DETROIT - 6.5 - OVER
GREEN BAY - 9 - OVER
HOUSTON - 8.5 - OVER
INDIANAPOLIS - 7.5 - UNDER
JACKSONVILLE - 8 - UNDER
KANSAS CITY - 10.5 - OVER
LA CHARGERS - 9.5 - UNDER
LA RAMS - 10.5 - UNDER
MIAMI - 4.5 - OVER
MINNESOTA - 9 - OVER
NEW ENGLAND - 11 - PUSH
NEW ORLEANS - 10.5 - UNDER
NY GIANTS - 6 - UNDER
NY JETS - 7.5 - OVER
OAKLAND - 6 - UNDER
PITTSBURGH - 9 - UNDER
PHL - 10 - OVER
SAN FRANCISCO - 8 - UNDER
SEATTLE - 8.5 - UNDER
TAMPA BAY - 6.5 - OVER
TENNESSEE - 8 - UNDER
WASHINGTON - 6 - UNDER
.. ok i had to finish later, and now after looking up the iggles schedule i am slightly more nervous. but whatever. this is done.
Showing posts with label preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label preview. Show all posts
Thursday, September 05, 2019
Wednesday, September 05, 2012
Leo's NFL over unders 2012
No need for an intro. I've been doing this for a while now. Vegas presents their odds on wins, and I pick over or under. Let's get started.....
Arizona Cardinals 6.5 - OVER
They maanged to sneak in 8 wins last year despite all the QB controversy. Nothing has really changed, but I think they can get to 7 in this awful division.
Atlanta Falcons 9 - OVER
10 wins is their norm. They can get to 10 or 11 every year without problem.
Baltimore Ravens 10 - PUSH
That sounds about right. I like this team, but I think they need one more year to get more offensive help and Suggs back.
Buffalo Bills 8 - OVER
People think they could be a sleeper, and they started out hot last year, but still finished 6-10. 8-8 seems good, although with the right breaks, they could go higher. Their schedule is super easy, so that helps.
Carolina Panthers 7.5 - UNDER
People think they're going to hit it big with Cam, but I'm waiting. The division is still tough and they haven't figured everything out.
Chicago Bears 9.5 - OVER
If Cutler hadn't gotten hurt last season, they would've likely been in the playoffs. I think they can get to 10 or more.
Cincinnati Bengals 8 - UNDER
Yeah, they surprised everyone, and they're young, but have they ever been able to string together 2 good seasons in a row in the recent era? Nope.
Cleveland Browns 5 - UNDER
It's Cleveland.
Dallas Cowboys 8.5 - OVER
9 wins and a first round loss in the playoffs isn't even guaranteed for them anymore, but I liked it.
Denver Broncos 8.5 - OVER
Yes, I am buying the Manning rejuvenation. Even if he's 60 % of what he was, he's still better than Tebow. John Fox did well with bad QBs, and now he's got a great one, even if not full. I think they keep him protected, throw a lot of short passes early, and that'll be enough in the AFC west.
Detroit Lions 9 - UNDER
Classic step-back season. They came up big, but have had too many distractions to not take a small decline. And they have no running backs. And Stafford could be hurt any day. And they benefitted the msot from Cutler being hurt last year. Too hard to see them getting back to playoffs.
Green Bay Packers 11.5 - OVER
Their defense is the key to whether or not they get back to the Super Bowl, but for the regular season, their offense alone is enough to get them to 12-13 wins.
Houston Texans 10 - OVER
They finally broke through last year and the division is terrible. Easy
Indianapolis Colts 5.5 - UNDER
Luck will be fine his rookie year, but there's too many holes in other places that were covered up the past few years before Manning's absence exposed them. They need time to rebuild.
Jacksonville Jaguars 5.5 - OVER
Not much of a vote of confidence, but they ought to be able to get at least 6 wins. They have the D, and they won 5 last year with everything going wrong.
Kansas City Chiefs 8 - PUSH
Some optimism here, but I jsut don't think they're that good. LAst year they had problems, but even when they were good the year before, they weren't amazing. 8 wins is right on the money.
Miami Dolphins 6.5 - UNDER
They're going with a rookie QB and not giving him anyone to help. Not a good look this year.
Minnesota Vikings 6 - UNDER
Not for a long, long time.
New England Patriots 12 - OVER
They don't have any problem winning in the regular season. With a not-so-good division and a fairly easy schedule, doesn't seem like they can slip.
New Orleans Saints 10 - UNDER
I don't think they'll fall apart from all the stuff that happens, and I could see them winning 12 without problem. But the division is a little tougher, schedule is tough, and 9 wins is more reasonable.
New York Giants 9 - OVER
So hard to tell where they're heading. The last time they won it all, they came back with a great record the next year but lost early in the playoffs. I'll take that.
New York Jets 8.5 - UNDER
Aside from the controversy that Tebow-Snachez brings, they don't even have anyone for them to throw to. I think Tebow is mostly used as a runner anyway, and the D is nice, but the passing game is still bad and it's not all Sanchez's fault. Their receivers are TERRIBLE. Winning more than 7-8 games with a rush-only attack is hard.
Oakland Raiders 7 - OVER
If Jason Campbell didn't get hurt last year, they would have won the division easily.. but he did, they panicked and traded for Carson Palmer, and now they're
Philadelphia Eagles 10 - UNDER
I... I'm not getting my hopes up anymore. I know better. I'll go under and keep expectations low, so if nice things happen, I will appreciate them. (Besides, my very conservative estimate has them at 9 wins. They should have done it last year.)
Pittsburgh Steelers 10 - OVER
They claim the division again this year, but only because I don't trust Cinncy and Baltimore enough, and the sked is not too bad. They're getting old in spots.
San Diego Chargers 9 - UNDER
They used to be a guaranteed over for the regular season, but they can't even get that right anymore. Sorry Norv. No one trusts you.
San Francisco 49ers 10 - OVER
I do think they will fall back a bit, but the division is still bad enough and their schedule easy enough to get to 11 wins without problem. They made some nice moves to get depth, so even if they're not as lucky, they have more people now.
Seattle Seahawks 7.5 - UNDER
See Dolphins. Rookie QB plus no one to throw to is unsettling.
St. Louis Rams 6 - UNDER
I'm a little tempted to go with the over because I really like Jeff Fisher, who always overachieved in Tennessee, but they just don't have the talent.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 - OVER
They weren't as bad as they were last year. They also weren't as good as they thought when they won 10 the year before. 7 or 8 wins is a nice middle.
Tennessee Titans 7.5 - UNDER
Uncertainty on offense kills them.
Washington Redskins 6.5 - UNDER
Everyone is thinking they will be a sleeper, but RG3 can't carry them yet and he has no help. I'm worried about them, for sure, but I don't think they make any big jumps this year.
Arizona Cardinals 6.5 - OVER
They maanged to sneak in 8 wins last year despite all the QB controversy. Nothing has really changed, but I think they can get to 7 in this awful division.
Atlanta Falcons 9 - OVER
10 wins is their norm. They can get to 10 or 11 every year without problem.
Baltimore Ravens 10 - PUSH
That sounds about right. I like this team, but I think they need one more year to get more offensive help and Suggs back.
Buffalo Bills 8 - OVER
People think they could be a sleeper, and they started out hot last year, but still finished 6-10. 8-8 seems good, although with the right breaks, they could go higher. Their schedule is super easy, so that helps.
Carolina Panthers 7.5 - UNDER
People think they're going to hit it big with Cam, but I'm waiting. The division is still tough and they haven't figured everything out.
Chicago Bears 9.5 - OVER
If Cutler hadn't gotten hurt last season, they would've likely been in the playoffs. I think they can get to 10 or more.
Cincinnati Bengals 8 - UNDER
Yeah, they surprised everyone, and they're young, but have they ever been able to string together 2 good seasons in a row in the recent era? Nope.
Cleveland Browns 5 - UNDER
It's Cleveland.
Dallas Cowboys 8.5 - OVER
9 wins and a first round loss in the playoffs isn't even guaranteed for them anymore, but I liked it.
Denver Broncos 8.5 - OVER
Yes, I am buying the Manning rejuvenation. Even if he's 60 % of what he was, he's still better than Tebow. John Fox did well with bad QBs, and now he's got a great one, even if not full. I think they keep him protected, throw a lot of short passes early, and that'll be enough in the AFC west.
Detroit Lions 9 - UNDER
Classic step-back season. They came up big, but have had too many distractions to not take a small decline. And they have no running backs. And Stafford could be hurt any day. And they benefitted the msot from Cutler being hurt last year. Too hard to see them getting back to playoffs.
Green Bay Packers 11.5 - OVER
Their defense is the key to whether or not they get back to the Super Bowl, but for the regular season, their offense alone is enough to get them to 12-13 wins.
Houston Texans 10 - OVER
They finally broke through last year and the division is terrible. Easy
Indianapolis Colts 5.5 - UNDER
Luck will be fine his rookie year, but there's too many holes in other places that were covered up the past few years before Manning's absence exposed them. They need time to rebuild.
Jacksonville Jaguars 5.5 - OVER
Not much of a vote of confidence, but they ought to be able to get at least 6 wins. They have the D, and they won 5 last year with everything going wrong.
Kansas City Chiefs 8 - PUSH
Some optimism here, but I jsut don't think they're that good. LAst year they had problems, but even when they were good the year before, they weren't amazing. 8 wins is right on the money.
Miami Dolphins 6.5 - UNDER
They're going with a rookie QB and not giving him anyone to help. Not a good look this year.
Minnesota Vikings 6 - UNDER
Not for a long, long time.
New England Patriots 12 - OVER
They don't have any problem winning in the regular season. With a not-so-good division and a fairly easy schedule, doesn't seem like they can slip.
New Orleans Saints 10 - UNDER
I don't think they'll fall apart from all the stuff that happens, and I could see them winning 12 without problem. But the division is a little tougher, schedule is tough, and 9 wins is more reasonable.
New York Giants 9 - OVER
So hard to tell where they're heading. The last time they won it all, they came back with a great record the next year but lost early in the playoffs. I'll take that.
New York Jets 8.5 - UNDER
Aside from the controversy that Tebow-Snachez brings, they don't even have anyone for them to throw to. I think Tebow is mostly used as a runner anyway, and the D is nice, but the passing game is still bad and it's not all Sanchez's fault. Their receivers are TERRIBLE. Winning more than 7-8 games with a rush-only attack is hard.
Oakland Raiders 7 - OVER
If Jason Campbell didn't get hurt last year, they would have won the division easily.. but he did, they panicked and traded for Carson Palmer, and now they're
Philadelphia Eagles 10 - UNDER
I... I'm not getting my hopes up anymore. I know better. I'll go under and keep expectations low, so if nice things happen, I will appreciate them. (Besides, my very conservative estimate has them at 9 wins. They should have done it last year.)
Pittsburgh Steelers 10 - OVER
They claim the division again this year, but only because I don't trust Cinncy and Baltimore enough, and the sked is not too bad. They're getting old in spots.
San Diego Chargers 9 - UNDER
They used to be a guaranteed over for the regular season, but they can't even get that right anymore. Sorry Norv. No one trusts you.
San Francisco 49ers 10 - OVER
I do think they will fall back a bit, but the division is still bad enough and their schedule easy enough to get to 11 wins without problem. They made some nice moves to get depth, so even if they're not as lucky, they have more people now.
Seattle Seahawks 7.5 - UNDER
See Dolphins. Rookie QB plus no one to throw to is unsettling.
St. Louis Rams 6 - UNDER
I'm a little tempted to go with the over because I really like Jeff Fisher, who always overachieved in Tennessee, but they just don't have the talent.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 - OVER
They weren't as bad as they were last year. They also weren't as good as they thought when they won 10 the year before. 7 or 8 wins is a nice middle.
Tennessee Titans 7.5 - UNDER
Uncertainty on offense kills them.
Washington Redskins 6.5 - UNDER
Everyone is thinking they will be a sleeper, but RG3 can't carry them yet and he has no help. I'm worried about them, for sure, but I don't think they make any big jumps this year.
Wednesday, September 07, 2011
Leo's 2011 over under picks
It's finally time! Football begins tomorrow and I've been putting off my picks until the end. It's been a crazy couple of weeks and everyone needed to see what happened. After hearing the annual Simmons podcast on over unders, I am following suit.
Last year, I went 18-14. Not so great. The year before I went 20-12. I'm still hoping to get to 24 one year.
Let's get started.....
ARIZONA - 7 wins - OVER
Hard to say what is going on here. Last year, they had terrible QB play and still won a few games. With decent work by Kolb, they should be better. But how much? I think 8-8 is possible, even 9-7.
ATLANTA - 10 wins - PUSH
I think they take a step back, but are still good. 10 wins seems just about right. Their schedule is hard but not impossible.
BALTIMORE - 10.5 wins - OVER
I think Baltimore wins the division, although they're not better than the Steelers. They have a slightly easier sked and remember that they won 12 games a year ago with a tougher one. I wouldn't take them in a playoff game, but their record should be good.
BUFFALO - 5.5 wins - UNDER
It's easy to see them being terrible again, but they have just enough guys like Stevie Johnson and Fitzpatrick to make it interesting. They're going to be bad, but are they 3 wins bad or 6 wins bad? When in doubt, Buffalo usually disappoints.
CAROLINA - 4.5 wins - UNDER
It's not getting any easier, and they're throwing a rookie in there right away. No dice.
CINNCINATTI - 5.5 wins - UNDER
Some are talking about them as a surprise. Uh, have they seen the QB situation? They still don't even know if Carson Palmer will show up. That's bad. They're playing a rookie they don't want to because they have no other option.
CHICAGO - 8 wins - UNDER
Everyone is expecting a major step back for them. I have to agree. I trust NO ONE on this team and they got a lot of breaks last year.
CLEVELAND - 7 wins - OVER
I'm somewhat on the bandwagon. 8 or 9 wins seems very possible, but I don't see playoffs. Sure, they have no receivers, but they made progress last year and the sked is not bad at all.
DALLAS - 9 wins - OVER
Do they just automatically pencil in the Cowboys for 89 every year? It happens alot, and they had a streak of winning just that. I'm going slightly over, because 10 sounds right. Their offense will be good and they probably have enough D to survive, but not be a major contender.
DENVER - 6 wins - UNDER
Tough because 6 or 7 seems about right, but I think they have too much turmoil going on to get there. I like John Fox as a coach, but if he wants to make this a defense and running team, as he usually doies, he'll find that they don't have the guys for that.
DETROIT - 8 wins - UNDER
They're a trendy pick, and they are improving, but I want to give them another year. I'm cautious because of injury concerns and them not ever doing anything. They'll be close and a push is likely, but I'll say under.
GREEN BAY - 11.5 wins - OVER
Their division is not so hard, they bring guys back... I don't know if they can repeat, but they will be much better in the regular season at least.
HOUSTON - 9 wins - OVER
INDIANAPOLIS - 9.5 wins - UNDER
I was already leaning towards the Texans over the Colts before the Manning situation got serious. Now, it seems like a no-brainer. I know I picked the Texans last year, like a lot of people, and failed. I know I thought the Colts were slipping, and they still made it. But they looked like they were slowing down even with Peyton. And the Texans are now the best team in this division pretty easily, I'd say. I still have doubts about them, but the fact that they solved their running game says something, even if they didn't win with it last year. They only need to fix a few holes on defense, and that's easier to do than implement new QBs like the rest of the division.
JACKSONVILLE - 6.5 wins - UNDER
They weren't that bad last year, and they might have made a run at this division, but they gave up their QB and their only decent receivers. It's better in the long run, but they will have a rough year now.
KANSAS CITY - 7.5 wins - OVER
Everyone thinks they will fall back to earth this year. I think they could but under 8 wins seems kinda low. They should be able to get to 8 or 9 wins.
MIAMI - 7.5 wins - UNDER
I thought seven or eight wins earlier, but they seem to have a lot of questions on offense now. Looks like they will suck it again.
MINNESOTA - 7 wins - UNDER
They still have AP, but they lost Sidney Rice and others and McNabb is only here as a transition guy. Not a great sign.
NEW ORLEANS - 10 wins - OVER
They made it to 11 wins last year with no running game, no D, and a tougher schedule. I think they're good for that this year.
NEW ENGLAND - 11.5 wins - OVER
At least for the regular season, they take care of things. I didn't expect 14 wins last year and they did it.
NY GIANTS - 9 wins - UNDER
Nine seems ok, but they have issues. I was going to say that the NFC east would have both wild card teams, but after seeing all their injuries, I'm backing off that. They also have a bad sked matchup - they get Saints and Packers as their flex games. Ouch. I could still see them getting to 10 wins and sneaking in the playoffs, but since they lost some of the passing game, I'll go with popular demand and say under.
NY JETS - 10 wins - OVER
They got to 11 last year and it seems like they could do it again. They didn't lose much, and their offense will be a little better.
OAKLAND - 6.5 wins - UNDER
They made some progress last year, and Jason Campbell looked decent, but he has no one to throw to and their top defender left. A small step back this year is way more likely.
PHILADELPHIA - 10.5 wins - OVER
Ok, let's break this down numerically:
I'm going with a conservative estimate. First, I can see the Eagles splitting with the Giants and Cowboys in the division. They should do better, but those games are always unpredictable. They better sweep the fucking Skins or I will break something. So that's 4-2 for the division.
They play the NFC West. This is awesome. They should go 4-0 but I'll say 3-1 just to be safe.
They play the AFC East. This is tougher. I will say 2-2, because I'm going with a tough guess. They could do better.
Their two flex games are intriguing, Bears and Falcons. It seems like, no matter what the records are, they have had the same results with these teams over the past few years: they struggle against the Bears, they do good against the Falcons. I think they're better than both, but I'll call it a split. 1-1.
SO, where does that leave us? That's a pretty conservative estimate and it still leaves them at 10-6. 11-5 is more likely. 12 or 13 wins are possible, depending on how things go. If they do not win 10 games, Andy Reid should be fired immediately.
After the initial hype, a lot of people have been doubting them recently. They've been criticized for bringing in new guys at a time when there are few practices and continuity is said to be great. I keep hearing that, plus a lot of pressure and Vick's injury history against them.
Their basic offensive skill guys are all the same, though, so that's the most important consistency issue. I'm not so worried about working new defenders in; cornerbacks know how to cover and I don't think they'll mess around with them. The offensive line is a problem, but it was last year, too, and that's part of the reason they went with Vick. If he gets hurt, Vince Young is a pretty capable backup, who could be starting for a few teams. He's not great but as a backup, he's pretty high grade. Same with Ronnie Brown and Steve Smith - they aren't so great anymore, and probably won't do much, but just having that depth is a big plus. I think the defense has to be better, and let's remember that they could have won 11 or 12 games last year with a tougher schedule. I don't think they're going to slip under 10.
PITTSBURGH - 10.5 wins - UNDER
They have a history of post-Super Bowl struggles, and they have some injury concerns. Still, they probably have enough to get to 9 or 10 wins.... but 11 seems like a bit much. I'm worried about Rothy and Mendenhall being healthy enough over the whole season. I think they're better than Baltimore but they just won't get the breaks this year.
SAN DIEGO - 10 wins - OVER
They were the most reliable team other than the Colts to always hit the over for the past few years. Then, it all ended last year. But they still finished 9-7 and one game behind, for all their troubles. They just have too much talent to not win this division. They won't go anywhere in the playoffs, but they should have improved enough to get to 11 wins.
SAN FRANCISCO - 7.5 wins - UNDER
They teased us for so long, and it's just not going to happen yet. They can't get a passing game going, and Ted Ginn and Braylon Edwards are drop city. Frank Gore is an injury risk. Last year was their chance to steal a weak division and they didn't get it, and this year will be tougher.
SEATTLE - 6 wins - UNDER
They won the division, but with 7 games. Then the division got better. Then they dumped a solid QB for a much worse one. This will not end well.
ST. LOUIS - 7.5 wins - UNDER
They seem like the logical pick to win this division, with an improved cast around Bradford, who got them further than expected last year.... but not so fast. Their schedule is a killer, and I'm still not sold on them. Steven Jackson is still an injury away from disappearing. I put them behind the Lions and Bucs, and I don't have those teams in the playoffs either.
Here's the deal: Arizona won 5 games last year despite awful QB play, which they have improved. St. Louis won 7 games last year with inspired play, which is tough sometimes to keep up. Their schedules are basically the same .... except the Cardinals get Carolina and Minnesota while the Rams get Green Bay and the Giants. I like what the Rams are doing, but sometimes you fall back in the second year. It'll be tough. I have them just at 7 wins, so I will take under.
TAMPA BAY - 8 wins - PUSH
They surprised everyone last year, but now people see them falling back a little. 8 wins sounds just about right.
TENNESSEE - 6.5 wins - UNDER
It's tough because 7 to 9 wins is possible. I like Hasselbeck as a stopgap, but I don't trust any of their receivers and I don't know if the coaching change will help. I like Jeff Fisher and I think he just had too many problems on offense. I don't know if they're solved. It's tempting with the Colts suffering to go over, but I will say just under.
WASHINGTON - 6 wins - UNDER
I'm enjoying how people are talking themselves into the Skins as a sleeper team. They have NO TALENT ON OFFENSE. None. I know Sexy Rexy once made a Super Bowl with a running/ defense oriented system, but who is he going to throw to? And why didn't he take a commanding lead over the incredibly boring John Beck? How can they win a game in that division with those QBs??? I think this is a ploy and they're really trying for Andrew Luck. They might get him.
Last year, I went 18-14. Not so great. The year before I went 20-12. I'm still hoping to get to 24 one year.
Let's get started.....
ARIZONA - 7 wins - OVER
Hard to say what is going on here. Last year, they had terrible QB play and still won a few games. With decent work by Kolb, they should be better. But how much? I think 8-8 is possible, even 9-7.
ATLANTA - 10 wins - PUSH
I think they take a step back, but are still good. 10 wins seems just about right. Their schedule is hard but not impossible.
BALTIMORE - 10.5 wins - OVER
I think Baltimore wins the division, although they're not better than the Steelers. They have a slightly easier sked and remember that they won 12 games a year ago with a tougher one. I wouldn't take them in a playoff game, but their record should be good.
BUFFALO - 5.5 wins - UNDER
It's easy to see them being terrible again, but they have just enough guys like Stevie Johnson and Fitzpatrick to make it interesting. They're going to be bad, but are they 3 wins bad or 6 wins bad? When in doubt, Buffalo usually disappoints.
CAROLINA - 4.5 wins - UNDER
It's not getting any easier, and they're throwing a rookie in there right away. No dice.
CINNCINATTI - 5.5 wins - UNDER
Some are talking about them as a surprise. Uh, have they seen the QB situation? They still don't even know if Carson Palmer will show up. That's bad. They're playing a rookie they don't want to because they have no other option.
CHICAGO - 8 wins - UNDER
Everyone is expecting a major step back for them. I have to agree. I trust NO ONE on this team and they got a lot of breaks last year.
CLEVELAND - 7 wins - OVER
I'm somewhat on the bandwagon. 8 or 9 wins seems very possible, but I don't see playoffs. Sure, they have no receivers, but they made progress last year and the sked is not bad at all.
DALLAS - 9 wins - OVER
Do they just automatically pencil in the Cowboys for 89 every year? It happens alot, and they had a streak of winning just that. I'm going slightly over, because 10 sounds right. Their offense will be good and they probably have enough D to survive, but not be a major contender.
DENVER - 6 wins - UNDER
Tough because 6 or 7 seems about right, but I think they have too much turmoil going on to get there. I like John Fox as a coach, but if he wants to make this a defense and running team, as he usually doies, he'll find that they don't have the guys for that.
DETROIT - 8 wins - UNDER
They're a trendy pick, and they are improving, but I want to give them another year. I'm cautious because of injury concerns and them not ever doing anything. They'll be close and a push is likely, but I'll say under.
GREEN BAY - 11.5 wins - OVER
Their division is not so hard, they bring guys back... I don't know if they can repeat, but they will be much better in the regular season at least.
HOUSTON - 9 wins - OVER
INDIANAPOLIS - 9.5 wins - UNDER
I was already leaning towards the Texans over the Colts before the Manning situation got serious. Now, it seems like a no-brainer. I know I picked the Texans last year, like a lot of people, and failed. I know I thought the Colts were slipping, and they still made it. But they looked like they were slowing down even with Peyton. And the Texans are now the best team in this division pretty easily, I'd say. I still have doubts about them, but the fact that they solved their running game says something, even if they didn't win with it last year. They only need to fix a few holes on defense, and that's easier to do than implement new QBs like the rest of the division.
JACKSONVILLE - 6.5 wins - UNDER
They weren't that bad last year, and they might have made a run at this division, but they gave up their QB and their only decent receivers. It's better in the long run, but they will have a rough year now.
KANSAS CITY - 7.5 wins - OVER
Everyone thinks they will fall back to earth this year. I think they could but under 8 wins seems kinda low. They should be able to get to 8 or 9 wins.
MIAMI - 7.5 wins - UNDER
I thought seven or eight wins earlier, but they seem to have a lot of questions on offense now. Looks like they will suck it again.
MINNESOTA - 7 wins - UNDER
They still have AP, but they lost Sidney Rice and others and McNabb is only here as a transition guy. Not a great sign.
NEW ORLEANS - 10 wins - OVER
They made it to 11 wins last year with no running game, no D, and a tougher schedule. I think they're good for that this year.
NEW ENGLAND - 11.5 wins - OVER
At least for the regular season, they take care of things. I didn't expect 14 wins last year and they did it.
NY GIANTS - 9 wins - UNDER
Nine seems ok, but they have issues. I was going to say that the NFC east would have both wild card teams, but after seeing all their injuries, I'm backing off that. They also have a bad sked matchup - they get Saints and Packers as their flex games. Ouch. I could still see them getting to 10 wins and sneaking in the playoffs, but since they lost some of the passing game, I'll go with popular demand and say under.
NY JETS - 10 wins - OVER
They got to 11 last year and it seems like they could do it again. They didn't lose much, and their offense will be a little better.
OAKLAND - 6.5 wins - UNDER
They made some progress last year, and Jason Campbell looked decent, but he has no one to throw to and their top defender left. A small step back this year is way more likely.
PHILADELPHIA - 10.5 wins - OVER
Ok, let's break this down numerically:
I'm going with a conservative estimate. First, I can see the Eagles splitting with the Giants and Cowboys in the division. They should do better, but those games are always unpredictable. They better sweep the fucking Skins or I will break something. So that's 4-2 for the division.
They play the NFC West. This is awesome. They should go 4-0 but I'll say 3-1 just to be safe.
They play the AFC East. This is tougher. I will say 2-2, because I'm going with a tough guess. They could do better.
Their two flex games are intriguing, Bears and Falcons. It seems like, no matter what the records are, they have had the same results with these teams over the past few years: they struggle against the Bears, they do good against the Falcons. I think they're better than both, but I'll call it a split. 1-1.
SO, where does that leave us? That's a pretty conservative estimate and it still leaves them at 10-6. 11-5 is more likely. 12 or 13 wins are possible, depending on how things go. If they do not win 10 games, Andy Reid should be fired immediately.
After the initial hype, a lot of people have been doubting them recently. They've been criticized for bringing in new guys at a time when there are few practices and continuity is said to be great. I keep hearing that, plus a lot of pressure and Vick's injury history against them.
Their basic offensive skill guys are all the same, though, so that's the most important consistency issue. I'm not so worried about working new defenders in; cornerbacks know how to cover and I don't think they'll mess around with them. The offensive line is a problem, but it was last year, too, and that's part of the reason they went with Vick. If he gets hurt, Vince Young is a pretty capable backup, who could be starting for a few teams. He's not great but as a backup, he's pretty high grade. Same with Ronnie Brown and Steve Smith - they aren't so great anymore, and probably won't do much, but just having that depth is a big plus. I think the defense has to be better, and let's remember that they could have won 11 or 12 games last year with a tougher schedule. I don't think they're going to slip under 10.
PITTSBURGH - 10.5 wins - UNDER
They have a history of post-Super Bowl struggles, and they have some injury concerns. Still, they probably have enough to get to 9 or 10 wins.... but 11 seems like a bit much. I'm worried about Rothy and Mendenhall being healthy enough over the whole season. I think they're better than Baltimore but they just won't get the breaks this year.
SAN DIEGO - 10 wins - OVER
They were the most reliable team other than the Colts to always hit the over for the past few years. Then, it all ended last year. But they still finished 9-7 and one game behind, for all their troubles. They just have too much talent to not win this division. They won't go anywhere in the playoffs, but they should have improved enough to get to 11 wins.
SAN FRANCISCO - 7.5 wins - UNDER
They teased us for so long, and it's just not going to happen yet. They can't get a passing game going, and Ted Ginn and Braylon Edwards are drop city. Frank Gore is an injury risk. Last year was their chance to steal a weak division and they didn't get it, and this year will be tougher.
SEATTLE - 6 wins - UNDER
They won the division, but with 7 games. Then the division got better. Then they dumped a solid QB for a much worse one. This will not end well.
ST. LOUIS - 7.5 wins - UNDER
They seem like the logical pick to win this division, with an improved cast around Bradford, who got them further than expected last year.... but not so fast. Their schedule is a killer, and I'm still not sold on them. Steven Jackson is still an injury away from disappearing. I put them behind the Lions and Bucs, and I don't have those teams in the playoffs either.
Here's the deal: Arizona won 5 games last year despite awful QB play, which they have improved. St. Louis won 7 games last year with inspired play, which is tough sometimes to keep up. Their schedules are basically the same .... except the Cardinals get Carolina and Minnesota while the Rams get Green Bay and the Giants. I like what the Rams are doing, but sometimes you fall back in the second year. It'll be tough. I have them just at 7 wins, so I will take under.
TAMPA BAY - 8 wins - PUSH
They surprised everyone last year, but now people see them falling back a little. 8 wins sounds just about right.
TENNESSEE - 6.5 wins - UNDER
It's tough because 7 to 9 wins is possible. I like Hasselbeck as a stopgap, but I don't trust any of their receivers and I don't know if the coaching change will help. I like Jeff Fisher and I think he just had too many problems on offense. I don't know if they're solved. It's tempting with the Colts suffering to go over, but I will say just under.
WASHINGTON - 6 wins - UNDER
I'm enjoying how people are talking themselves into the Skins as a sleeper team. They have NO TALENT ON OFFENSE. None. I know Sexy Rexy once made a Super Bowl with a running/ defense oriented system, but who is he going to throw to? And why didn't he take a commanding lead over the incredibly boring John Beck? How can they win a game in that division with those QBs??? I think this is a ploy and they're really trying for Andrew Luck. They might get him.
Thursday, September 09, 2010
Leo's major predictions for 2010
After carefully looking through each team and getting an idea of how many games they should win, I now will take my predictions to the posteseason.
In the NFC, I have San Francisco as an easy division winner. I like both Green Bay and Minnesota, and I think the Packers now have a slight edge for the division. I like both Atlanta and New Orleans, and I give the Saints a slight edge. I'm concerned about the East, where all four teams will kill each other. My pickings suggested that the Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys would all be in there. I think Dallas still has the edge - I know their offense will be good, (can't say for sure with the other two) and they have consistently made the playoffs, even if they never win in them. It's tough because I see all these teams winning around 10 games and not much more or less. I have a feeling that the Eagles and Giants will be the odd teams out because their schedules are hard. It's too bad because they're both better than the 49ers. In the playoffs, I forsee upsets by the wild card teams over San Fran and Dallas (which actually shouldn't be so unexpected). I think we're going to have a tasty Packers-Vikings title game, in which Brett Favre's name will be said in vain more than 3000 times. Doesn't this just sound like an appropriate ending? He won't get to throw a crushing late-game interception because Green Bay will win easily.
In the AFC, I have the Colts and Chargers winning their divisions easily again. I like both Pittsburgh and Baltimore a lot. That leaves the East. I am not so high on the Jets as many are. They just don't have the offense. I think the Patriots are at a point where they win divisions, not playoff games, but they score and make it to 10 wins. Miami and Cinncinatti are intriguing, but they face tough divisions and need better passing games. A good passing offense is a must now, not just D. That's why my last pick to make it is Houston. They've been getting a little better each year for the past few years, and their offense is pretty good now. They're the only major sports team to not make the playoffs yet, they are motivated, and their schedule is a little bit easier than these other teams. Again, I know everyone loves the Jets, but I worry about Sanchez in his second year and their ability to score. So I have the Colts, Chargers, Ravens, and Pats as division winners with Steelers and Texans as wild cards. In the playoffs, the Pats, Chargers and Texans will be exposed for their flaws. I like a Colts - Ravens title game, with the Colts advancing because the difference between Manning and Flacco is just too much.
That leaves a Colts - Packers Super Bowl. If it wasn't football, this would be considered a ratings disaster and extremely boring. But the traditional small town team vs. the most popular pitchman in the league will attract people. People will be trying to make comparisons with the Pack and last year's Saints, but the Saints were better. The Packers don't have as many running backs to use or the ridiculous depth at receiver. Aaron Rodgers will be an MVP candidate and will increase his profile dramatically, but he's not quite Brees. The Colts just have too much. Last year, we all tried to think of reasons why they wouldn't make it and they still almost did. This year they have some motivation, they have recievers they trust, and their coaching staff has more to learn from. Plus, they know with a lockout looming, that this could be one of the last great years Manning has left. They don't have as much time. It's safe, it's broing, but this is my pick.
Colts 35, Packers 27
(oh, and first up, since it is early: NO over MIN)
In the NFC, I have San Francisco as an easy division winner. I like both Green Bay and Minnesota, and I think the Packers now have a slight edge for the division. I like both Atlanta and New Orleans, and I give the Saints a slight edge. I'm concerned about the East, where all four teams will kill each other. My pickings suggested that the Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys would all be in there. I think Dallas still has the edge - I know their offense will be good, (can't say for sure with the other two) and they have consistently made the playoffs, even if they never win in them. It's tough because I see all these teams winning around 10 games and not much more or less. I have a feeling that the Eagles and Giants will be the odd teams out because their schedules are hard. It's too bad because they're both better than the 49ers. In the playoffs, I forsee upsets by the wild card teams over San Fran and Dallas (which actually shouldn't be so unexpected). I think we're going to have a tasty Packers-Vikings title game, in which Brett Favre's name will be said in vain more than 3000 times. Doesn't this just sound like an appropriate ending? He won't get to throw a crushing late-game interception because Green Bay will win easily.
In the AFC, I have the Colts and Chargers winning their divisions easily again. I like both Pittsburgh and Baltimore a lot. That leaves the East. I am not so high on the Jets as many are. They just don't have the offense. I think the Patriots are at a point where they win divisions, not playoff games, but they score and make it to 10 wins. Miami and Cinncinatti are intriguing, but they face tough divisions and need better passing games. A good passing offense is a must now, not just D. That's why my last pick to make it is Houston. They've been getting a little better each year for the past few years, and their offense is pretty good now. They're the only major sports team to not make the playoffs yet, they are motivated, and their schedule is a little bit easier than these other teams. Again, I know everyone loves the Jets, but I worry about Sanchez in his second year and their ability to score. So I have the Colts, Chargers, Ravens, and Pats as division winners with Steelers and Texans as wild cards. In the playoffs, the Pats, Chargers and Texans will be exposed for their flaws. I like a Colts - Ravens title game, with the Colts advancing because the difference between Manning and Flacco is just too much.
That leaves a Colts - Packers Super Bowl. If it wasn't football, this would be considered a ratings disaster and extremely boring. But the traditional small town team vs. the most popular pitchman in the league will attract people. People will be trying to make comparisons with the Pack and last year's Saints, but the Saints were better. The Packers don't have as many running backs to use or the ridiculous depth at receiver. Aaron Rodgers will be an MVP candidate and will increase his profile dramatically, but he's not quite Brees. The Colts just have too much. Last year, we all tried to think of reasons why they wouldn't make it and they still almost did. This year they have some motivation, they have recievers they trust, and their coaching staff has more to learn from. Plus, they know with a lockout looming, that this could be one of the last great years Manning has left. They don't have as much time. It's safe, it's broing, but this is my pick.
Colts 35, Packers 27
(oh, and first up, since it is early: NO over MIN)
Friday, August 13, 2010
Looking back on last year: was I even close?
For the past year or two, I've been trying a different approach to my season preview. Instead of trying to pick exact win totals for each team, I've been looking at the official Vegas lines on the over/under for wins and calling it. This is a little easier to pick and keep track of. My goal was 75 % accuracy, or 24 out of 32 teams. I just realized that I still haven't looked to see how I did, and the next season is coming up soon. Let's review...
[what I wrote before last year will be in italics]
Arizona Cardinals - 8.5 - UNDER
Super Bowl hangovers are rough this decade, and for a team that barely won 9 games in a weak division, and has a 50 year old ugly QB....no dice. Is anyone even betting the over for this?
WRONG! Yikes. I thought this was a lock. I forgot how much the rest of the division still really sucked. BTW, Ken Whisenhunt deserves a lot of credit. Two consecutive playoff appearances in Arizona just doesn't happen, let alone a Super Bowl.
Atlanta Falcons - 8.5 - UNDER
They surprised people last year, but their schedule is tougher and people know better. A small part of me thinks they could prove me wrong again, but I'll go under.
WRONG! They barely got it, although they missed the playoffs. They're for real, I guess.
Baltimore Ravens - 8.5 - OVER
They were also a bit of a surprise, but they had a lot of holdovers from really good teams a few years ago. Their defense is still great, and they have a number of running backs, so it won't really matter if Flacco struggles. They'll just go simple like last year.
CORRECT. Not by much, but they made it.
Buffalo Bills - 7.5 - UNDER
They had some promise last year and they still couldn't crack 8 wins. Now they have no Jason Peters (thanks!) and no Marshawn Lynch for a while. Ouch. And if it wasn't obvious enough, no, I'm not thinking that the TO era will end well. Unlike Dallas and Philly, there may not even BE a honeymoon period to have go sour.
CORRECT. This is a really depressing team. I expect nothing from them.
Carolina Panthers - 8.5 - OVER
Why the drop off? They still have talent. Their playoff loss to the Cardinals changed some minds, but they are still a safe bet. Delhomme is a risk, but he played good enough last year, and like Baltimore, they can rely on running and D if they need to.
WRONG! They started off rough and couldn't make it up, though they actually came close. As it turned out, Delhomme's playoff catastrophe the year before was indeed a signal that he was cooked.
Chicago Bears - 8.5 - OVER
Get on the Bear bus! If they won 9 games last year without a QB, shouldn't they be able to do that again with a good one? I don't care if Cutler is immature or a dick or anything; he's way better than anyone they've had since McMahon.... who was a dick and mooned people and still won it all. I like this team. I have to, with Forte as the foundation of my fantasy squad, but really, I think they'll be good.
WRONG! Jesus, I fucked this up. And Forte ruined my fantasy season. Not a good time in Chitown.
Cincinnati Bengals - 6.5 - OVER
A minor surprise here. Some people have the Bengals as a sleeper. Merril Hoge even put them in the playoffs. I doubt that, but I can see them quietly getting 7 or 8 wins and making some strides. Lost in last year's misery was the fact that their defense finally improved. It's their offense that hurts, but they at least have some people for that now.
CORRECT. And they were even better than I thought. HogePodge is a clever guy.
Cleveland Browns - 7 - UNDER
Why do they have a better shot than the Bengals? There are no offensive stars on this team besides Braylon, and he's drop city. They have a QB battle that isn't going well for anyone and no one that I can really name. They'll just have to like basketball again.
CORRECT. Poor Cleveland. You always pick the worst thing to happen to them, because it will. This was too easy. I still don't see why people thought they'd be better than Cinncy.
Dallas Cowboys - 9 - OVER
Dammit. This is why Vegas is smart. They have the Cowboys exactly where I expect them. They've even finished with 9 wins quite a few times recently. I have them at 9 wins, maybe 10, but I hope I'm wrong and it all goes down in flames. I didn't want to go under and then watch them get ho, so I'll go over for a jinx. Honestly, they have the talent, and I like dumping TO (and that stupid bitch... well there's two stupid bitches gone!) and giving more young runners a chance. I can only pray Romo is ready to choke again.
CORRECT. As much as I hate it.
Denver Broncos - 7.5 - UNDER
Sorry guys. You don't give up a franchise QB under the age of 27, even if you don't like his attitude. I didn't expect them to win last year and they almost did. Now, it won't be so easy. They have all sorts of offensive issues and the awful defense hasn't gotten any better. Why did Dawkins have to come here?
WRONG! Technically, I was wrong, but I knew they wouldn't make the playoffs. Even after their hot start, I was cynical. You just don't give up a QB like that. So I will take a loss, but I will emotionally feel a moral victory here.
Detroit Lions - 5 - UNDER
Five wins is a good guess. I'll say 4 because the division is tough. They're getting there, slowly, but they are getting there.
CORRECT. You know you're a shitty franchise when 2-14 is considered a sign of progress.
Green Bay Packers - 9 - UNDER
A lot of people are really excited about Green Bay this year. They went 6-10 last year but the offense looked great and people have excused the defense because of injuries. They went 13-3 the year before.... so... hmmm... I say 8-8 and another year to figure it out.
WRONG! I really screwed up the Packers and Bears. I should've listened to the experts who were mostly right on this.
Houston Texans - 8 - UNDER
Again, right where I would expect them to be. I'd bet under just because the division is tough, they don't have offensive depth, and Schaub has had some injury problems.
WRONG! They were indeed a little better. They might actually make the playoffs soon.
Indianapolis Colts - 10 - OVER
They're a lock to win 10 every year, right? Last year they started slow and still got to 12. I can't see why not.
CORRECT. No matter what they do in the playoffs, they've won at least 11 games for many years in a row.
Jacksonville Jaguars - 8 - UNDER
I think they will come back, but not for a playoff berth. This is a tough call, but they need more receivers. They and Houston could make the playoffs if they got out of the south.
CORRECT. They're just not good enough to hang in this division.
Kansas City Chiefs - 6 - UNDER
They have the makings of an upstart, but after dumping Tony Gonzalez and not picking up another running back to spell LJ (was it really just a few years ago that he was a fantasy stud?), I think they have more rebuilding to do.
CORRECT. They had more rebuilding, but they did find a RB.
Miami Dolphins - 7 - OVER
I think they're going to drop back to Earth this year, but 7 is a big leap. Or is it? I say 8, the division still sucks. Their offense was thought to be dead but it's not that bad. They won't sneak up on anyone, but they won't go back to the cellar.
WASH. For some reason, I thought I won this and the Dolphins still snuck in 8 or 9 wins. Maybe I had them confused with Atlanta. Vegas is good. They always know.
Minnesota Vikings - 9 - OVER
I realize as I write this that I am putting faith in Mecember-ve, not to mention Brad Childress. Ah gawd! But if they can win 10 games with no QB play, a washed up guy can be an improvement. They have the wideouts and AP to carry them, and the defense. They won't go anywhere in the playoffs, but they should be in it.
CORRECT. Indeed, ol' ballslinger was more than enough for them to get 12 wins. And may that be the last time we talk about him for a while.
New England Patriots - 11.5 - UNDER
I think they'll be good again, I just have a hard time saying they will definitely win 12 games. 10 or 11 will still take the division easily and set them up for a playoff run.
CORRECT. And they were worse, and went nowhere in the playoffs. Finally.
New Orleans Saints - 8.5 - OVER
I have lost tons of imaginary money on this team the past few years. I didn't buy their resurgence until it was too late. Last year I thought they'd kill that division and they finished last, albeit with 8-8. With Atlanta and Tampa maybe hurting, and their offense not slowing down anytime soon, it's not hard to see 9 or 10 wins.
CORRECT. Finally! I never get the Saints right. Either I jump on the bandwagon too late or too early. They were a lot better than what I said, but I at least had them in the playoffs.
New York Giants - 10 - OVER
As much as I don't like it, the G Men have become the most reliable team in the NFC. They won 12 games without a receiving core and are working on that. Eli is still a little overrated, but they seem to be a lock now to win 11 games every year.
WORNG! Of course, half the ones I was most confident about failed. They just didn't have it. I don't know where they are now.
New York Jets - 7 - UNDER
Seven wins is right where I see them, but I can take fewer because they have a rookie QB (and he's extra inexperienced) and I can't name any of their receivers besides Cotchery. (And I can only name him because it's unique.)
WRONG! I did not see Sexy Rexy and the rebirth of Jets football coming. Though it should be noted that they only won 9 games (same as the year before, which was seen then as a disappointment) and made the playoffs because of tiebreakers and teams resting starters. But they're good.
Oakland Raiders - 5.5 - UNDER
I was tempted until I realized what always happens here. 6 or 7 wins is possible, but then how are they going to pass? Russell is still raw and they have no receivers. It would be nice if they had a solid front office and coaching... but...... Kiff's dead.
CORRECT. Just barely. I still don't know how they got to 5.
Philadelphia Eagles - 9.5 - OVER
As up and down as they've been, they should get to 10 wins. They really should. They have some purpose with playing for Jim Johnson's memory and their best receiver core in a while. I am cautiously optimistic, which is about as good as I can be with this team anymore.
CORRECT. Well, at least they exceeded my expectations in some capacity.
Pittsburgh Steelers - 10.5 - UNDER
A slight dis, but I have them right at 10 wins. 11 or 12 is certainly possible. There's always a SB hangover, even if minor, that no one besides the Pats have gotten through. They always seem to be an injury away and full of guys who COULD get hurt but don't, so I'll err on the cautious side.
CORRECT. Caution served me well. Though they still got close with all that turmoil.
San Diego Chargers - 9.5 - OVER
They have the most talent. The division sucks. Norv is still shaky, but they should run rampant in the regular season. Playoffs? Who knows. But they can win 13 or 14 games with this sked.
CORRECT. Way too easy. They can always win games in the regular season. Playoffs are another thing, but how could they not tear down that division?
San Francisco 49ers - 7 - OVER
This is a tough call, but I like Singletary and what he's done. I don't know how Crabtree plays out, but they made strides last year and they didn't lose anything. They have some depth on offense in case some of these young guys don't pan out.
CORRECT. They just made it. Samurai Mike has something going.
Seattle Seahawks - 7.5 - OVER
I really like them to win the division. They had a ton of injuries last year and couldn't get it together, but now, they are strong. They have the most talent and balance in the division.
WRONG! Ooof. Big miss. I thought they'd bounce back, but they were done. I don't know if Pete Carroll knows what he's getting into.
St. Louis Rams - 5.5 - UNDER
Some people are calling them a sleeper. I'm calling them a team with only two offensive players who can do anything and are hurt all the time. And no D. It would be a repeat miracle of their dream season ten years ago for them to do anything. Miracles don't repeat. I think.
CORRECT. Who the fuck was calling them a sleeper? They're terrible.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6.5 - UNDER
They really aren't that bad, and were almost in the playoffs last year, but a new QB and a drastically different coaching change just take time.
CORRECT. They're going to take a lot of time to get better.
Tennessee Titans - 9 - OVER
They don't look special, but they didn't last year, and they won 13 games. They have a solid D and running foundation, and that should be good for 10 wins. Jeff Fisher is always worth the over. He's done better than expected every year.
WRONG! Fisher finally had a down year.
Washington Redskins - 8 - UNDER
Seven wins sounds right, even if I can see them going to 9 and sneaking in the playoffs. I don't like the way they dissed Jason Campbell.
CORRECT. They were much worse. Campbell is gone.
hmmm... seems like I missed a lot....
Final tally = 20 out of 32 correct, 62.5 percent. Not what I wanted, but good. A nice bar for me to set.
[what I wrote before last year will be in italics]
Arizona Cardinals - 8.5 - UNDER
Super Bowl hangovers are rough this decade, and for a team that barely won 9 games in a weak division, and has a 50 year old ugly QB....no dice. Is anyone even betting the over for this?
WRONG! Yikes. I thought this was a lock. I forgot how much the rest of the division still really sucked. BTW, Ken Whisenhunt deserves a lot of credit. Two consecutive playoff appearances in Arizona just doesn't happen, let alone a Super Bowl.
Atlanta Falcons - 8.5 - UNDER
They surprised people last year, but their schedule is tougher and people know better. A small part of me thinks they could prove me wrong again, but I'll go under.
WRONG! They barely got it, although they missed the playoffs. They're for real, I guess.
Baltimore Ravens - 8.5 - OVER
They were also a bit of a surprise, but they had a lot of holdovers from really good teams a few years ago. Their defense is still great, and they have a number of running backs, so it won't really matter if Flacco struggles. They'll just go simple like last year.
CORRECT. Not by much, but they made it.
Buffalo Bills - 7.5 - UNDER
They had some promise last year and they still couldn't crack 8 wins. Now they have no Jason Peters (thanks!) and no Marshawn Lynch for a while. Ouch. And if it wasn't obvious enough, no, I'm not thinking that the TO era will end well. Unlike Dallas and Philly, there may not even BE a honeymoon period to have go sour.
CORRECT. This is a really depressing team. I expect nothing from them.
Carolina Panthers - 8.5 - OVER
Why the drop off? They still have talent. Their playoff loss to the Cardinals changed some minds, but they are still a safe bet. Delhomme is a risk, but he played good enough last year, and like Baltimore, they can rely on running and D if they need to.
WRONG! They started off rough and couldn't make it up, though they actually came close. As it turned out, Delhomme's playoff catastrophe the year before was indeed a signal that he was cooked.
Chicago Bears - 8.5 - OVER
Get on the Bear bus! If they won 9 games last year without a QB, shouldn't they be able to do that again with a good one? I don't care if Cutler is immature or a dick or anything; he's way better than anyone they've had since McMahon.... who was a dick and mooned people and still won it all. I like this team. I have to, with Forte as the foundation of my fantasy squad, but really, I think they'll be good.
WRONG! Jesus, I fucked this up. And Forte ruined my fantasy season. Not a good time in Chitown.
Cincinnati Bengals - 6.5 - OVER
A minor surprise here. Some people have the Bengals as a sleeper. Merril Hoge even put them in the playoffs. I doubt that, but I can see them quietly getting 7 or 8 wins and making some strides. Lost in last year's misery was the fact that their defense finally improved. It's their offense that hurts, but they at least have some people for that now.
CORRECT. And they were even better than I thought. HogePodge is a clever guy.
Cleveland Browns - 7 - UNDER
Why do they have a better shot than the Bengals? There are no offensive stars on this team besides Braylon, and he's drop city. They have a QB battle that isn't going well for anyone and no one that I can really name. They'll just have to like basketball again.
CORRECT. Poor Cleveland. You always pick the worst thing to happen to them, because it will. This was too easy. I still don't see why people thought they'd be better than Cinncy.
Dallas Cowboys - 9 - OVER
Dammit. This is why Vegas is smart. They have the Cowboys exactly where I expect them. They've even finished with 9 wins quite a few times recently. I have them at 9 wins, maybe 10, but I hope I'm wrong and it all goes down in flames. I didn't want to go under and then watch them get ho, so I'll go over for a jinx. Honestly, they have the talent, and I like dumping TO (and that stupid bitch... well there's two stupid bitches gone!) and giving more young runners a chance. I can only pray Romo is ready to choke again.
CORRECT. As much as I hate it.
Denver Broncos - 7.5 - UNDER
Sorry guys. You don't give up a franchise QB under the age of 27, even if you don't like his attitude. I didn't expect them to win last year and they almost did. Now, it won't be so easy. They have all sorts of offensive issues and the awful defense hasn't gotten any better. Why did Dawkins have to come here?
WRONG! Technically, I was wrong, but I knew they wouldn't make the playoffs. Even after their hot start, I was cynical. You just don't give up a QB like that. So I will take a loss, but I will emotionally feel a moral victory here.
Detroit Lions - 5 - UNDER
Five wins is a good guess. I'll say 4 because the division is tough. They're getting there, slowly, but they are getting there.
CORRECT. You know you're a shitty franchise when 2-14 is considered a sign of progress.
Green Bay Packers - 9 - UNDER
A lot of people are really excited about Green Bay this year. They went 6-10 last year but the offense looked great and people have excused the defense because of injuries. They went 13-3 the year before.... so... hmmm... I say 8-8 and another year to figure it out.
WRONG! I really screwed up the Packers and Bears. I should've listened to the experts who were mostly right on this.
Houston Texans - 8 - UNDER
Again, right where I would expect them to be. I'd bet under just because the division is tough, they don't have offensive depth, and Schaub has had some injury problems.
WRONG! They were indeed a little better. They might actually make the playoffs soon.
Indianapolis Colts - 10 - OVER
They're a lock to win 10 every year, right? Last year they started slow and still got to 12. I can't see why not.
CORRECT. No matter what they do in the playoffs, they've won at least 11 games for many years in a row.
Jacksonville Jaguars - 8 - UNDER
I think they will come back, but not for a playoff berth. This is a tough call, but they need more receivers. They and Houston could make the playoffs if they got out of the south.
CORRECT. They're just not good enough to hang in this division.
Kansas City Chiefs - 6 - UNDER
They have the makings of an upstart, but after dumping Tony Gonzalez and not picking up another running back to spell LJ (was it really just a few years ago that he was a fantasy stud?), I think they have more rebuilding to do.
CORRECT. They had more rebuilding, but they did find a RB.
Miami Dolphins - 7 - OVER
I think they're going to drop back to Earth this year, but 7 is a big leap. Or is it? I say 8, the division still sucks. Their offense was thought to be dead but it's not that bad. They won't sneak up on anyone, but they won't go back to the cellar.
WASH. For some reason, I thought I won this and the Dolphins still snuck in 8 or 9 wins. Maybe I had them confused with Atlanta. Vegas is good. They always know.
Minnesota Vikings - 9 - OVER
I realize as I write this that I am putting faith in Mecember-ve, not to mention Brad Childress. Ah gawd! But if they can win 10 games with no QB play, a washed up guy can be an improvement. They have the wideouts and AP to carry them, and the defense. They won't go anywhere in the playoffs, but they should be in it.
CORRECT. Indeed, ol' ballslinger was more than enough for them to get 12 wins. And may that be the last time we talk about him for a while.
New England Patriots - 11.5 - UNDER
I think they'll be good again, I just have a hard time saying they will definitely win 12 games. 10 or 11 will still take the division easily and set them up for a playoff run.
CORRECT. And they were worse, and went nowhere in the playoffs. Finally.
New Orleans Saints - 8.5 - OVER
I have lost tons of imaginary money on this team the past few years. I didn't buy their resurgence until it was too late. Last year I thought they'd kill that division and they finished last, albeit with 8-8. With Atlanta and Tampa maybe hurting, and their offense not slowing down anytime soon, it's not hard to see 9 or 10 wins.
CORRECT. Finally! I never get the Saints right. Either I jump on the bandwagon too late or too early. They were a lot better than what I said, but I at least had them in the playoffs.
New York Giants - 10 - OVER
As much as I don't like it, the G Men have become the most reliable team in the NFC. They won 12 games without a receiving core and are working on that. Eli is still a little overrated, but they seem to be a lock now to win 11 games every year.
WORNG! Of course, half the ones I was most confident about failed. They just didn't have it. I don't know where they are now.
New York Jets - 7 - UNDER
Seven wins is right where I see them, but I can take fewer because they have a rookie QB (and he's extra inexperienced) and I can't name any of their receivers besides Cotchery. (And I can only name him because it's unique.)
WRONG! I did not see Sexy Rexy and the rebirth of Jets football coming. Though it should be noted that they only won 9 games (same as the year before, which was seen then as a disappointment) and made the playoffs because of tiebreakers and teams resting starters. But they're good.
Oakland Raiders - 5.5 - UNDER
I was tempted until I realized what always happens here. 6 or 7 wins is possible, but then how are they going to pass? Russell is still raw and they have no receivers. It would be nice if they had a solid front office and coaching... but...... Kiff's dead.
CORRECT. Just barely. I still don't know how they got to 5.
Philadelphia Eagles - 9.5 - OVER
As up and down as they've been, they should get to 10 wins. They really should. They have some purpose with playing for Jim Johnson's memory and their best receiver core in a while. I am cautiously optimistic, which is about as good as I can be with this team anymore.
CORRECT. Well, at least they exceeded my expectations in some capacity.
Pittsburgh Steelers - 10.5 - UNDER
A slight dis, but I have them right at 10 wins. 11 or 12 is certainly possible. There's always a SB hangover, even if minor, that no one besides the Pats have gotten through. They always seem to be an injury away and full of guys who COULD get hurt but don't, so I'll err on the cautious side.
CORRECT. Caution served me well. Though they still got close with all that turmoil.
San Diego Chargers - 9.5 - OVER
They have the most talent. The division sucks. Norv is still shaky, but they should run rampant in the regular season. Playoffs? Who knows. But they can win 13 or 14 games with this sked.
CORRECT. Way too easy. They can always win games in the regular season. Playoffs are another thing, but how could they not tear down that division?
San Francisco 49ers - 7 - OVER
This is a tough call, but I like Singletary and what he's done. I don't know how Crabtree plays out, but they made strides last year and they didn't lose anything. They have some depth on offense in case some of these young guys don't pan out.
CORRECT. They just made it. Samurai Mike has something going.
Seattle Seahawks - 7.5 - OVER
I really like them to win the division. They had a ton of injuries last year and couldn't get it together, but now, they are strong. They have the most talent and balance in the division.
WRONG! Ooof. Big miss. I thought they'd bounce back, but they were done. I don't know if Pete Carroll knows what he's getting into.
St. Louis Rams - 5.5 - UNDER
Some people are calling them a sleeper. I'm calling them a team with only two offensive players who can do anything and are hurt all the time. And no D. It would be a repeat miracle of their dream season ten years ago for them to do anything. Miracles don't repeat. I think.
CORRECT. Who the fuck was calling them a sleeper? They're terrible.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6.5 - UNDER
They really aren't that bad, and were almost in the playoffs last year, but a new QB and a drastically different coaching change just take time.
CORRECT. They're going to take a lot of time to get better.
Tennessee Titans - 9 - OVER
They don't look special, but they didn't last year, and they won 13 games. They have a solid D and running foundation, and that should be good for 10 wins. Jeff Fisher is always worth the over. He's done better than expected every year.
WRONG! Fisher finally had a down year.
Washington Redskins - 8 - UNDER
Seven wins sounds right, even if I can see them going to 9 and sneaking in the playoffs. I don't like the way they dissed Jason Campbell.
CORRECT. They were much worse. Campbell is gone.
hmmm... seems like I missed a lot....
Final tally = 20 out of 32 correct, 62.5 percent. Not what I wanted, but good. A nice bar for me to set.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Leo's Season Preview '09
I always do a season preview, but this year I thought I'd change it up a little bit. I've noticed that Vegas oddsmakers are always pretty good at predicting things. That's why they make so much cash. I was looking at their odds for the season, and they usually know right where to go. So, this year, I'm going to post the over/under (predicted number of wins) for every team in wins, and then call it. I'd like to invite you to try this as well; it's more fun than trying to guess wins on your own.
Super Bowl hangovers are rough this decade, and for a team that barely won 9 games in a weak division, and has a 50 year old ugly QB....no dice. Is anyone even betting the over for this?
Atlanta Falcons - 8.5 - UNDER
They surprised people last year, but their schedule is tougher and people know better. A small part of me thinks they could prove me wrong again, but I'll go under.
Baltimore Ravens - 8.5 - OVER
They were also a bit of a surprise, but they had a lot of holdovers from really good teams a few years ago. Their defense is still great, and they have a number of running backs, so it won't really matter if Flacco struggles. They'll just go simple like last year.
Buffalo Bills - 7.5 - UNDER
They had some promise last year and they still couldn't crack 8 wins. Now they have no Jason Peters (thanks!) and no Marshawn Lynch for a while. Ouch. And if it wasn't obvious enough, no, I'm not thinking that the TO era will end well. Unlike Dallas and Philly, there may not even BE a honeymoon period to have go sour.
Carolina Panthers - 8.5 - OVER
Why the drop off? They still have talent. Their playoff loss to the Cardinals changed some minds, but they are still a safe bet. Delhomme is a risk, but he played good enough last year, and like Baltimore, they can rely on running and D if they need to.
Get on the Bear bus! If they won 9 games last year without a QB, shouldn't they be able to do that again with a good one? I don't care if Cutler is immature or a dick or anything; he's way better than anyone they've had since McMahon.... who was a dick and mooned people and still won it all. I like this team. I have to, with Forte as the foundation of my fantasy squad, but really, I think they'll be good.
Cincinnati Bengals - 6.5 - OVER
A minor surprise here. Some people have the Bengals as a sleeper. Merril Hoge even put them in the playoffs. I doubt that, but I can see them quietly getting 7 or 8 wins and making some strides. Lost in last year's misery was the fact that their defense finally improved. It's their offense that hurts, but they at least have some people for that now.
Cleveland Browns - 7 - UNDER
Why do they have a better shot than the Bengals? There are no offensive stars on this team besides Braylon, and he's drop city. They have a QB battle that isn't going well for anyone and no one that I can really name. They'll just have to like basketball again.
Dallas Cowboys - 9 - OVER
Dammit. This is why Vegas is smart. They have the Cowboys exactly where I expect them. They've even finished with 9 wins quite a few times recently. I have them at 9 wins, maybe 10, but I hope I'm wrong and it all goes down in flames. I didn't want to go under and then watch them get ho, so I'll go over for a jinx. Honestly, they have the talent, and I like dumping TO (and that stupid bitch... well there's two stupid bitches gone!) and giving more young runners a chance. I can only pray Romo is ready to choke again.
Denver Broncos - 7.5 - UNDER
Sorry guys. You don't give up a franchise QB under the age of 27, even if you don't like his attitude. I didn't expect them to win last year and they almost did. Now, it won't be so easy. They have all sorts of offensive issues and the awful defense hasn't gotten any better. Why did Dawkins have to come here?
Detroit Lions - 5 - UNDER
Five wins is a good guess. I'll say 4 because the division is tough. They're getting there, slowly, but they are getting there.
Green Bay Packers - 9 - UNDER
A lot of people are really excited about Green Bay this year. They went 6-10 last year but the offense looked great and people have excused the defense because of injuries. They went 13-3 the year before.... so... hmmm... I say 8-8 and another year to figure it out.
Houston Texans - 8 - UNDER
Again, right where I would expect them to be. I'd bet under just because the division is tough, they don't have offensive depth, and Schaub has had some injury problems.
Indianapolis Colts - 10 - OVER
They're a lock to win 10 every year, right? Last year they started slow and still got to 12. I can't see why not.
Jacksonville Jaguars - 8 - UNDER
I think they will come back, but not for a playoff berth. This is a tough call, but they need more receivers. They and Houston could make the playoffs if they got out of the south.
Kansas City Chiefs - 6 - UNDER
They have the makings of an upstart, but after dumping Tony Gonzalez and not picking up another running back to spell LJ (was it really just a few years ago that he was a fantasy stud?), I think they have more rebuilding to do.
Miami Dolphins - 7 - OVER
I think they're going to drop back to Earth this year, but 7 is a big leap. Or is it? I say 8, the division still sucks. Their offense was thought to be dead but it's not that bad. They won't sneak up on anyone, but they won't go back to the cellar.
Minnesota Vikings - 9 - OVER
I realize as I write this that I am putting faith in Mecember-ve, not to mention Brad Childress. Ah gawd! But if they can win 10 games with no QB play, a washed up guy can be an improvement. They have the wideouts and AP to carry them, and the defense. They won't go anywhere in the playoffs, but they should be in it.
New England Patriots - 11.5 - UNDER
I think they'll be good again, I just have a hard time saying they will definitely win 12 games. 10 or 11 will still take the division easily and set them up for a playoff run.
New Orleans Saints - 8.5 - OVER
I have lost tons of imaginary money on this team the past few years. I didn't buy their resurgence until it was too late. Last year I thought they'd kill that division and they finished last, albeit with 8-8. With Atlanta and Tampa maybe hurting, and their offense not slowing down anytime soon, it's not hard to see 9 or 10 wins.
New York Giants - 10 - OVER
As much as I don't like it, the G Men have become the most reliable team in the NFC. They won 12 games without a receiving core and are working on that. Eli is still a little overrated, but they seem to be a lock now to win 11 games every year.
New York Jets - 7 - UNDER
Seven wins is right where I see them, but I can take fewer because they have a rookie QB (and he's extra inexperienced) and I can't name any of their receivers besides Cotchery. (And I can only name him because it's unique.)
Oakland Raiders - 5.5 - UNDER
I was tempted until I realized what always happens here. 6 or 7 wins is possible, but then how are they going to pass? Russell is still raw and they have no receivers. It would be nice if they had a solid front office and coaching... but...
... Kiff's dead.
Philadelphia Eagles - 9.5 - OVER
As up and down as they've been, they should get to 10 wins. They really should. They have some purpose with playing for Jim Johnson's memory and their best receiver core in a while. I am cautiously optimistic, which is about as good as I can be with this team anymore.
Pittsburgh Steelers - 10.5 - UNDER
A slight dis, but I have them right at 10 wins. 11 or 12 is certainly possible. There's always a SB hangover, even if minor, that no one besides the Pats have gotten through. They always seem to be an injury away and full of guys who COULD get hurt but don't, so I'll err on the cautious side.
San Diego Chargers - 9.5 - OVER
They have the most talent. The division sucks. Norv is still shaky, but they should run rampant in the regular season. Playoffs? Who knows. But they can win 13 or 14 games with this sked.
San Francisco 49ers - 7 - OVER
This is a tough call, but I like Singletary and what he's done. I don't know how Crabtree plays out, but they made strides last year and they didn't lose anything. They have some depth on offense in case some of these young guys don't pan out.
Seattle Seahawks - 7.5 - OVER
I really like them to win the division. They had a ton of injuries last year and couldn't get it together, but now, they are strong. They have the most talent and balance in the division.
St. Louis Rams - 5.5 - UNDER
Some people are calling them a sleeper. I'm calling them a team with only two offensive players who can do anything and are hurt all the time. And no D. It would be a repeat miracle of their dream season ten years ago for them to do anything. Miracles don't repeat. I think.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6.5 - UNDER
They really aren't that bad, and were almost in the playoffs last year, but a new QB and a drastically different coaching change just take time.
Tennessee Titans - 9 - OVER
They don't look special, but they didn't last year, and they won 13 games. They have a solid D and running foundation, and that should be good for 10 wins. Jeff Fisher is always worth the over. He's done better than expected every year.
Washington Redskins - 8 - UNDER
Seven wins sounds right, even if I can see them going to 9 and sneaking in the playoffs. I don't like the way they dissed Jason Campbell.
-----------------------
That does it for regular season predictions. As for playoffs, the Colts, Patriots, and Chargers are the three teams overwhelmingly picked to win the big one. I like the Colts and I don't know why. As for the NFC, my cautious optimism is too cautious for me to say anything, but I feel pretty good. There are a lot of tough teams to worry about. What am I feeling.... how about....
Colts over Giants. That's right, a Manning vs. Manning bowl. Just shoot me in the face now.
[I started this before week one and I had my projections, but I couldn't get it out in time. I swear this is what I picked.]
Arizona Cardinals - 8.5 - UNDERSuper Bowl hangovers are rough this decade, and for a team that barely won 9 games in a weak division, and has a 50 year old ugly QB....no dice. Is anyone even betting the over for this?
Atlanta Falcons - 8.5 - UNDER
They surprised people last year, but their schedule is tougher and people know better. A small part of me thinks they could prove me wrong again, but I'll go under.
Baltimore Ravens - 8.5 - OVER
They were also a bit of a surprise, but they had a lot of holdovers from really good teams a few years ago. Their defense is still great, and they have a number of running backs, so it won't really matter if Flacco struggles. They'll just go simple like last year.
Buffalo Bills - 7.5 - UNDER
They had some promise last year and they still couldn't crack 8 wins. Now they have no Jason Peters (thanks!) and no Marshawn Lynch for a while. Ouch. And if it wasn't obvious enough, no, I'm not thinking that the TO era will end well. Unlike Dallas and Philly, there may not even BE a honeymoon period to have go sour.
Carolina Panthers - 8.5 - OVER
Why the drop off? They still have talent. Their playoff loss to the Cardinals changed some minds, but they are still a safe bet. Delhomme is a risk, but he played good enough last year, and like Baltimore, they can rely on running and D if they need to.
[See? You know I didn't post this after week one. ]
Chicago Bears - 8.5 - OVERGet on the Bear bus! If they won 9 games last year without a QB, shouldn't they be able to do that again with a good one? I don't care if Cutler is immature or a dick or anything; he's way better than anyone they've had since McMahon.... who was a dick and mooned people and still won it all. I like this team. I have to, with Forte as the foundation of my fantasy squad, but really, I think they'll be good.
Cincinnati Bengals - 6.5 - OVER
A minor surprise here. Some people have the Bengals as a sleeper. Merril Hoge even put them in the playoffs. I doubt that, but I can see them quietly getting 7 or 8 wins and making some strides. Lost in last year's misery was the fact that their defense finally improved. It's their offense that hurts, but they at least have some people for that now.
Cleveland Browns - 7 - UNDER
Why do they have a better shot than the Bengals? There are no offensive stars on this team besides Braylon, and he's drop city. They have a QB battle that isn't going well for anyone and no one that I can really name. They'll just have to like basketball again.
Dallas Cowboys - 9 - OVER
Dammit. This is why Vegas is smart. They have the Cowboys exactly where I expect them. They've even finished with 9 wins quite a few times recently. I have them at 9 wins, maybe 10, but I hope I'm wrong and it all goes down in flames. I didn't want to go under and then watch them get ho, so I'll go over for a jinx. Honestly, they have the talent, and I like dumping TO (and that stupid bitch... well there's two stupid bitches gone!) and giving more young runners a chance. I can only pray Romo is ready to choke again.
Denver Broncos - 7.5 - UNDER
Sorry guys. You don't give up a franchise QB under the age of 27, even if you don't like his attitude. I didn't expect them to win last year and they almost did. Now, it won't be so easy. They have all sorts of offensive issues and the awful defense hasn't gotten any better. Why did Dawkins have to come here?
Detroit Lions - 5 - UNDER
Five wins is a good guess. I'll say 4 because the division is tough. They're getting there, slowly, but they are getting there.
Green Bay Packers - 9 - UNDER
A lot of people are really excited about Green Bay this year. They went 6-10 last year but the offense looked great and people have excused the defense because of injuries. They went 13-3 the year before.... so... hmmm... I say 8-8 and another year to figure it out.
Houston Texans - 8 - UNDER
Again, right where I would expect them to be. I'd bet under just because the division is tough, they don't have offensive depth, and Schaub has had some injury problems.
Indianapolis Colts - 10 - OVER
They're a lock to win 10 every year, right? Last year they started slow and still got to 12. I can't see why not.
Jacksonville Jaguars - 8 - UNDER
I think they will come back, but not for a playoff berth. This is a tough call, but they need more receivers. They and Houston could make the playoffs if they got out of the south.
Kansas City Chiefs - 6 - UNDER
They have the makings of an upstart, but after dumping Tony Gonzalez and not picking up another running back to spell LJ (was it really just a few years ago that he was a fantasy stud?), I think they have more rebuilding to do.
Miami Dolphins - 7 - OVER
I think they're going to drop back to Earth this year, but 7 is a big leap. Or is it? I say 8, the division still sucks. Their offense was thought to be dead but it's not that bad. They won't sneak up on anyone, but they won't go back to the cellar.
Minnesota Vikings - 9 - OVER
I realize as I write this that I am putting faith in Mecember-ve, not to mention Brad Childress. Ah gawd! But if they can win 10 games with no QB play, a washed up guy can be an improvement. They have the wideouts and AP to carry them, and the defense. They won't go anywhere in the playoffs, but they should be in it.
New England Patriots - 11.5 - UNDER
I think they'll be good again, I just have a hard time saying they will definitely win 12 games. 10 or 11 will still take the division easily and set them up for a playoff run.
New Orleans Saints - 8.5 - OVER
I have lost tons of imaginary money on this team the past few years. I didn't buy their resurgence until it was too late. Last year I thought they'd kill that division and they finished last, albeit with 8-8. With Atlanta and Tampa maybe hurting, and their offense not slowing down anytime soon, it's not hard to see 9 or 10 wins.
New York Giants - 10 - OVER
As much as I don't like it, the G Men have become the most reliable team in the NFC. They won 12 games without a receiving core and are working on that. Eli is still a little overrated, but they seem to be a lock now to win 11 games every year.
New York Jets - 7 - UNDER
Seven wins is right where I see them, but I can take fewer because they have a rookie QB (and he's extra inexperienced) and I can't name any of their receivers besides Cotchery. (And I can only name him because it's unique.)
Oakland Raiders - 5.5 - UNDER
I was tempted until I realized what always happens here. 6 or 7 wins is possible, but then how are they going to pass? Russell is still raw and they have no receivers. It would be nice if they had a solid front office and coaching... but...
... Kiff's dead.
Philadelphia Eagles - 9.5 - OVER
As up and down as they've been, they should get to 10 wins. They really should. They have some purpose with playing for Jim Johnson's memory and their best receiver core in a while. I am cautiously optimistic, which is about as good as I can be with this team anymore.
Pittsburgh Steelers - 10.5 - UNDER
A slight dis, but I have them right at 10 wins. 11 or 12 is certainly possible. There's always a SB hangover, even if minor, that no one besides the Pats have gotten through. They always seem to be an injury away and full of guys who COULD get hurt but don't, so I'll err on the cautious side.
San Diego Chargers - 9.5 - OVER
They have the most talent. The division sucks. Norv is still shaky, but they should run rampant in the regular season. Playoffs? Who knows. But they can win 13 or 14 games with this sked.
San Francisco 49ers - 7 - OVER
This is a tough call, but I like Singletary and what he's done. I don't know how Crabtree plays out, but they made strides last year and they didn't lose anything. They have some depth on offense in case some of these young guys don't pan out.
Seattle Seahawks - 7.5 - OVER
I really like them to win the division. They had a ton of injuries last year and couldn't get it together, but now, they are strong. They have the most talent and balance in the division.
St. Louis Rams - 5.5 - UNDER
Some people are calling them a sleeper. I'm calling them a team with only two offensive players who can do anything and are hurt all the time. And no D. It would be a repeat miracle of their dream season ten years ago for them to do anything. Miracles don't repeat. I think.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6.5 - UNDER
They really aren't that bad, and were almost in the playoffs last year, but a new QB and a drastically different coaching change just take time.
Tennessee Titans - 9 - OVER
They don't look special, but they didn't last year, and they won 13 games. They have a solid D and running foundation, and that should be good for 10 wins. Jeff Fisher is always worth the over. He's done better than expected every year.
Washington Redskins - 8 - UNDER
Seven wins sounds right, even if I can see them going to 9 and sneaking in the playoffs. I don't like the way they dissed Jason Campbell.
-----------------------
That does it for regular season predictions. As for playoffs, the Colts, Patriots, and Chargers are the three teams overwhelmingly picked to win the big one. I like the Colts and I don't know why. As for the NFC, my cautious optimism is too cautious for me to say anything, but I feel pretty good. There are a lot of tough teams to worry about. What am I feeling.... how about....
Colts over Giants. That's right, a Manning vs. Manning bowl. Just shoot me in the face now.
Saturday, September 06, 2008
JL 2008 NFL preview
I know I'm one game behind, but here are my picks for the 2008 season:
AFC EAST
Patriots 13-3
Bills 8-8
Jets 8-8
Dolphins 2-14
I didn't think any team had a chance of doing well besides the Pats, but the Bills and Jets have decent schedules. They can fight it out for a playoff spot if they work in their Qb's.
The Dolphins, once again, can suck it.
AFC NORTH
Steelers 10-6
Browns 8-8
Bengals 4-12
Ravens 3-13
Everyone in this division has a brutal schedule. The Steelers are, to me, pretty strong, but they might just wear down. I don't think the Browns were a fluke, and I like their direction, but they're in way over their heads this year. Some people see Baltimore as a sleeper, but how are they going to score? Cinncy has the opposite problem. I'm excited for Ocho Cinco, though. I love seeing his name on official reports.
AFC SOUTH
Jags 12-4
Colts 11-5
Titans 9-7
Texans 7-9
This might be the best division. Jacksonville is a big favorite for a lot of people. The Colts have a tough schedule and Manning is a little hurt, so they will drop, but they can still win 10 games. Tennessee seems to do better than I always think, so I give them the last playoff spot. They do play the Jets and Browns. Houston is getting better, but not quite there yet.
AFC WEST
Chargers 12-4
Broncos 7-9
Raiders 4-12
Chiefs 3-13
The Chargers won't even have to break a sweat in their division games. I'm not even that high on Denver, but they have a lot of easy games. The old Raiders-Chiefs battles are going to be extra ugly this year.
NFC EAST
Cowboys 11-5
Eagles 10-6
Giants 9-7
Redskins 7-9
Everyone loves the Cowboys. I need to find something wrong. I'm going to hope they self-destruct at some point. Their schedule is a lot harder, but they should win this division. I will go on a longer rant about the Iggs at some point, but this looks like another 10 win year for them. Some experts really like them.... a few think they could miss the playoffs... it's tough. I look at the sked and I think 9-11 wins are completely reasonable. The 'Skins aren't terrible, but they keep making too many changes.
NFC NORTH
Packers 9-7
Vikings 8-8
Bears 4-12
Lions 3-13
This will be a fascinating division race because the Packers and Vikings are basically the same team: inexperienced QB, questionable passing game, solid defense and running. I give the Packers a slight edge in talent, plus I think Rodgers will be okay. I'm still not sure about Tavaris Jackson. Alas, ye Bears and Lions; the sidewalk is your pillow yet again.
NFC SOUTH
Saints 12-4
Bucs 9-7
Panthers 8-8
Falcons 3-13
I really like the Saints this year. Their D might be suspect, but their offense is spectacular and their schedule is not too tough. That also helps the Bucs and Panthers. Carolina scares me. I'm done picking them for great things. Atlanta... sorry.
NFC WEST
Seahawks 10-6
Cardinals 7-9
Rams 3-13
49ers 2-14
This is the other bad West. Seattle should be slipping soon, but they just have no challengers. Arizona is still trying to drag Leinart along, but he just isn't working. The Rams are shells of their former selves. The John Taylors are still a mess.
AFC PLAYOFFS
SD over TEN
IND over PIT
JAX over SD
NE over IND
C: NE def JAX
NFC PLAYOFFS
NYG over SEA
PHL over GB
NO over NYG
DAL over PHL
C: NO def DAL
SUPER BOWL XLIII
Patriots 38, Saints 33
Yeah, I know, I don't like this either. I can't find anyone to take down the Pats. They're older, but they still have talent and focus. The Jags and Chargers might challenge, but I don't know about their coaches, and they have flaws on offense. The NFC as a whole is weaker. Anything can happen in the big game, but... every NFC team is flawed, even Dallas. New Orleans has the best O and they can get the best record, which would be big. I can see every team besides the Bears-Rams-Niners-Falcons-Lions mess fighting for playoff spots. This also makes me feel better about Philly: they're not great, but I look at everyone else and say, "Why not them?" I won't pick them, though. I'm cautious. I will pick the Pats and hope my bad luck carries again.
Once again, the possibility of a Pats-Cowboys SB terrifies me. I would have to root for a re-enactment of The Sum of All Fears. Please don't let it happen.
AFC EAST
Patriots 13-3
Bills 8-8
Jets 8-8
Dolphins 2-14
I didn't think any team had a chance of doing well besides the Pats, but the Bills and Jets have decent schedules. They can fight it out for a playoff spot if they work in their Qb's.
The Dolphins, once again, can suck it.
AFC NORTH
Steelers 10-6
Browns 8-8
Bengals 4-12
Ravens 3-13
Everyone in this division has a brutal schedule. The Steelers are, to me, pretty strong, but they might just wear down. I don't think the Browns were a fluke, and I like their direction, but they're in way over their heads this year. Some people see Baltimore as a sleeper, but how are they going to score? Cinncy has the opposite problem. I'm excited for Ocho Cinco, though. I love seeing his name on official reports.
AFC SOUTH
Jags 12-4
Colts 11-5
Titans 9-7
Texans 7-9
This might be the best division. Jacksonville is a big favorite for a lot of people. The Colts have a tough schedule and Manning is a little hurt, so they will drop, but they can still win 10 games. Tennessee seems to do better than I always think, so I give them the last playoff spot. They do play the Jets and Browns. Houston is getting better, but not quite there yet.
AFC WEST
Chargers 12-4
Broncos 7-9
Raiders 4-12
Chiefs 3-13
The Chargers won't even have to break a sweat in their division games. I'm not even that high on Denver, but they have a lot of easy games. The old Raiders-Chiefs battles are going to be extra ugly this year.
NFC EAST
Cowboys 11-5
Eagles 10-6
Giants 9-7
Redskins 7-9
Everyone loves the Cowboys. I need to find something wrong. I'm going to hope they self-destruct at some point. Their schedule is a lot harder, but they should win this division. I will go on a longer rant about the Iggs at some point, but this looks like another 10 win year for them. Some experts really like them.... a few think they could miss the playoffs... it's tough. I look at the sked and I think 9-11 wins are completely reasonable. The 'Skins aren't terrible, but they keep making too many changes.
NFC NORTH
Packers 9-7
Vikings 8-8
Bears 4-12
Lions 3-13
This will be a fascinating division race because the Packers and Vikings are basically the same team: inexperienced QB, questionable passing game, solid defense and running. I give the Packers a slight edge in talent, plus I think Rodgers will be okay. I'm still not sure about Tavaris Jackson. Alas, ye Bears and Lions; the sidewalk is your pillow yet again.
NFC SOUTH
Saints 12-4
Bucs 9-7
Panthers 8-8
Falcons 3-13
I really like the Saints this year. Their D might be suspect, but their offense is spectacular and their schedule is not too tough. That also helps the Bucs and Panthers. Carolina scares me. I'm done picking them for great things. Atlanta... sorry.
NFC WEST
Seahawks 10-6
Cardinals 7-9
Rams 3-13
49ers 2-14
This is the other bad West. Seattle should be slipping soon, but they just have no challengers. Arizona is still trying to drag Leinart along, but he just isn't working. The Rams are shells of their former selves. The John Taylors are still a mess.
AFC PLAYOFFS
SD over TEN
IND over PIT
JAX over SD
NE over IND
C: NE def JAX
NFC PLAYOFFS
NYG over SEA
PHL over GB
NO over NYG
DAL over PHL
C: NO def DAL
SUPER BOWL XLIII
Patriots 38, Saints 33
Yeah, I know, I don't like this either. I can't find anyone to take down the Pats. They're older, but they still have talent and focus. The Jags and Chargers might challenge, but I don't know about their coaches, and they have flaws on offense. The NFC as a whole is weaker. Anything can happen in the big game, but... every NFC team is flawed, even Dallas. New Orleans has the best O and they can get the best record, which would be big. I can see every team besides the Bears-Rams-Niners-Falcons-Lions mess fighting for playoff spots. This also makes me feel better about Philly: they're not great, but I look at everyone else and say, "Why not them?" I won't pick them, though. I'm cautious. I will pick the Pats and hope my bad luck carries again.
Once again, the possibility of a Pats-Cowboys SB terrifies me. I would have to root for a re-enactment of The Sum of All Fears. Please don't let it happen.
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
Midseason Ranterback
Yes, comrades, we're halfway through the season already. Most team have 8 games under their belt, even a few have 9 (but they're off this week). Some have surprised and some have disappointed. Some have done both (New Orleans, which continues to haunt me).
I know I made a bunch of pre-season predictions, but here are my updated ones:
1. Dallas is going to win the division and have the best record in the NFC. I know, I hate it, but they're way above the rest of the NFC offensively. No late-season turmoil in the NFC east this year.
2. Green Bay is going to cool down a little, but will be the sentimental favorite going into the playoffs.
3. Seattle will win the NFC west with 9 wins. Meh. They've done it before. They will then shock the Cowboys in the playoffs again.
4. Detroit and the Giants will make the playoffs, making me look downright retarded, but they aren't going anywhere.
5. New Orleans will win their division with surprising ease and upset Green Bay, then shock Seattle to reach the Super Bowl. Why? They look like a team that's figured it out and will make a run in the second half. Those teams are always dangerous.
6. We all know whom experts see as the top two teams in the AFC (and in what order), but Pittsburgh is a solid number three and will prevent a New England-Indy rematch from happening.
7. But no Blitzburgh Super Bowl. I just hope they got some ideas from the Colts almost beating the Pats. As I do everyone else....
8. San Diego will win the AFC west with 9 games, but no playoff success. They should fire Norv, but will be too embarassed about the whole Marty thing to react.
9. Cleveland and Tennesee will win wild cards, once again proving me stupid. Jacksonville will get close but no Garrard will cost them soon.
10. New England kills Nawlins in Flanuary. I hope not, but that's my call.
Oh, and Philly will go 6-10 and people will call for Reid to step down. Big surprise....
As for me? I think I've reached my breaking point here. I hate to jump on the blame-the-coach bandwagon as unreasonable fans are wont to do, but seriously, this team is dead. They have no life. Their playcalling has fallen off the face of the Earth the past few years. Remember when they first started to show life under Reid back in 2000? They opened up that season with an onside kick against the Cowboys, and never looked back. They were aggressive and showed innovation, getting far without any playmakers for McNabb at all.
Flash forward to Sunday night. They looked dead, as they have recently. They had no aggression or innovative calls. They meagerly half-assed a comeback attempt by slowly dumping the ball off to Westbrook for short gains. It looked at time like they weren't trying. You couldn't say that several years ago, but now, it's happening regularly.
Who changes that? The coaching staff, mostly. The front office, too.... by getting new coaches and players.
I hate to say it, but I don't think they care about Reid anymore. Once players lose their passion for a coach, it's near impossible to get it back. He has this lame-duck mood and body language, even though he refuses to step down. Well, when everyone looks like that, changes must be made. It's time.
Do everyone a favor and leave, coach.
I know I made a bunch of pre-season predictions, but here are my updated ones:
1. Dallas is going to win the division and have the best record in the NFC. I know, I hate it, but they're way above the rest of the NFC offensively. No late-season turmoil in the NFC east this year.
2. Green Bay is going to cool down a little, but will be the sentimental favorite going into the playoffs.
3. Seattle will win the NFC west with 9 wins. Meh. They've done it before. They will then shock the Cowboys in the playoffs again.
4. Detroit and the Giants will make the playoffs, making me look downright retarded, but they aren't going anywhere.
5. New Orleans will win their division with surprising ease and upset Green Bay, then shock Seattle to reach the Super Bowl. Why? They look like a team that's figured it out and will make a run in the second half. Those teams are always dangerous.
6. We all know whom experts see as the top two teams in the AFC (and in what order), but Pittsburgh is a solid number three and will prevent a New England-Indy rematch from happening.
7. But no Blitzburgh Super Bowl. I just hope they got some ideas from the Colts almost beating the Pats. As I do everyone else....
8. San Diego will win the AFC west with 9 games, but no playoff success. They should fire Norv, but will be too embarassed about the whole Marty thing to react.
9. Cleveland and Tennesee will win wild cards, once again proving me stupid. Jacksonville will get close but no Garrard will cost them soon.
10. New England kills Nawlins in Flanuary. I hope not, but that's my call.
Oh, and Philly will go 6-10 and people will call for Reid to step down. Big surprise....
As for me? I think I've reached my breaking point here. I hate to jump on the blame-the-coach bandwagon as unreasonable fans are wont to do, but seriously, this team is dead. They have no life. Their playcalling has fallen off the face of the Earth the past few years. Remember when they first started to show life under Reid back in 2000? They opened up that season with an onside kick against the Cowboys, and never looked back. They were aggressive and showed innovation, getting far without any playmakers for McNabb at all.
Flash forward to Sunday night. They looked dead, as they have recently. They had no aggression or innovative calls. They meagerly half-assed a comeback attempt by slowly dumping the ball off to Westbrook for short gains. It looked at time like they weren't trying. You couldn't say that several years ago, but now, it's happening regularly.
Who changes that? The coaching staff, mostly. The front office, too.... by getting new coaches and players.
I hate to say it, but I don't think they care about Reid anymore. Once players lose their passion for a coach, it's near impossible to get it back. He has this lame-duck mood and body language, even though he refuses to step down. Well, when everyone looks like that, changes must be made. It's time.
Do everyone a favor and leave, coach.
Sunday, September 02, 2007
justin leo's season preview 2007
LEO'S 2007 NFL PREVIEW
Let's get right into it.
NFC
NFC EAST
PHL 10-6
DAL 10-6
WSH 7-9
NYG 5-11
Philadelphia Eagles (10 wins):
I'm being cautiously optimistic. No Super Bowl predicitions this year. Nothing said about health. I've had quite enough of that.
The one thing that I can say about the Birds is that they've got as good a chance as anyone. Look at all the other contenders in the NFC. The Bears have major questions on offense, the Saints have major questions on defense, the Panthers were a big disappointment, the Cowboys were very up-and-down last year, the Seahawks have lost people, and no one else really strikes fear yet. I know it's easy for us negative Philly fans to point out all the potential problems they have, but they've got less than everyone else.
There aren't many teams in the league with the balance of O and D. There are concerns on each side (WR, LB) but then there are also proven commodities. Unless someone really steps up, they have to be in the discussion for conference domination.
I loved the Takeo Spikes move, and I think Kevin Curtis is decent enough to help replace Donte Stallworth. Their receivers aren't great, but they're not as terrible as a few years ago either.... and they've got potential.
Of course, I heart Tony Hunt, not just because's a PSU guy, but I've been begging them to get another back for years.
This offense is solid and they fixed a few holes on D. Realistically, they could be the best team in the conference. If Reid continues to let Morningwheg (a bad head coach, but a good coordinator) calm the offense down, they'll be fine. I am confident... cautious, but confident.
[Still refusing to jinx them...]
Dallas Cowboys (10 wins):
I'm sick of people essing their D, and not just because I hate them. They did their best when nobody else in the division was in sync, and they fell apart late. Romo made a lot of news but he's still relatively unproven. TO dropped a lot of key catches last year, so good riddance.
They have talent, no question. But if they could only get 9 wins last year with it, when the conference was terrible, why should they get any more now? Wade Phillips is not a spectacular coach, not worth more than Parcells. I'm honestly not that worried about them. But I'll pick them to do well to help my chi.
Washington Redskins (7 wins):
Joe Gibbs might not have been so stoked about coming back if he knew he'd have to deal with Daniel Snyder. He's still feeling the effects of bringing in pricey vets like Brunell and such.
The good news is that they are getting better. Jason Campbell and Clinton Portis are holding this team up. Defensively, they have no one, but they're starting to get people in.
A lot of people have them marked down as a sleeper this year. I don't buy it, but anything can happen. I think they're definitely a year away, but they could be in it for one of the last playoff spots.
New York Giants (5 wins):
Let's see...
They fell apart like the ending of Mystic River last year....
They lost their key running back who had been doing everything on offense, and he wasn't finished yet....
Their key defensive player almost retired because he hates the coach so much, even though he needed the cash....
And, speaking of the coach, Tom Coughlin is only good for 3 years before he starts wearing on players.
This is year 4.
NORRIS (NFC NORTH)
CHI 11-5
GB 7-9
MIN 7-9
DET 5-11
Chicago Bears (11 wins):
Sometimes I can't believe they were really the NFC champs last year. They had none of the appeal of the old Bears teams. They really started to look shaky on offense late in the season. They dropped the ball so much in the big game, and Rex Grossman became a running joke, albeit leading to a great UCB skit.
So now, a lot of people are dumping them. Well, I also remember the early part of last season when they looked unbeatable. I also see that there aren't enough great teams in the league, especially their division, to unseat them. I think they'll get back to 10 wins or so, easy.
It's all about Rex and the O. If he's good, they can win it all. If not, they'll dump him and just rely on D. I don't see them falling apart, but they won't scare anyone in the playoffs if he struggles.
Green Bay Packers (7 wins):
You could say that Brett Favre is like the guy that used to be in a great band and hasn't sone anything meaningful in the past 20 years. He keeps hanging around the party, makign everyone else feel awkward, but they can't say no to him because he's a legend.
Favre wanted help and the Packers decided to go with a youth movement instead. They've drafted young guys, including another quarterback, at key spots and dumped most veterans. You'd think he'd get the point.... they don't really want him anymore. But he keeps showing up. Dramatically.
Just leave, man. Ironically, this team has a good future. They have nice young guys at every spot. They can't make the playoffs yet, but they'll be good soon.... too late for him.
Minnesota Vikings (7 wins):
This team also has a bright future. Their D is finally solid, and they have pieces on offense. They have also been mentioned as a sleeper should the Bears fail, but I say not yet. The key to this year is how Adrian Peterson and Tavaris Jackson look, and if any of the receivers can do anything. If they do well, this could be the team to beat in a few years. Who knew Brad Childress could handle this? I thought he was Andy Reid's little brother who never said anything. Good work, but not a postseason team this year.
Detroit Lions (5 wins):
People have them as a major sleeper. It seems everyone in this division besides Chicago has potential. Yeah, they've got an interesting mix of offensive potential. But people seem to be forgetting one thing...
They're the Detroit Lions.
F plus.
[click]
NFC SOUTH
CAR 11-5
NO 9-7
TB 6-10
ATL 6-10
Carolina Panthers (11 wins):
I don't know what happened last year. Injuries killed them a few years ago, but they didn't lose that much last year, and yet they struggled. They were my easy pick for the title game beforehand, but now I don't know.
I still think they're dangerous. They have the D. They have depth at running back, more then ever. Jake Delhomme just isn't a consistent quarterback. He winged it during their SB run and it worked. Last year, not so much, because they didn't have anyone besides Steve Smith. Well, they got some good young receivers, and they brought in David Carr as a backup. He could be great with an actual offensive line.
Pressure is on, Jake. I think they're the best team in the NFC if they click. And if not, well, that's just one more team the Eagles don't have to worry about.
New Orleans Saints (9 wins):
I didn't think they were for real last year, up until that last quarter of the Eagles game. They cost me a load of pick'ems. I'm convinced now, but I'm still suspicious about their D and their ability to keep it going with a tougher sked.
There's no question that this offense will be great. It's the best in the NFC. The only matter is if the D is enough. I think that they played on a lot of emotion and surprised teams last year, and it will be hard to repeat. But then again, they really picked it up at the end, especially Reggie Bush. Until their D proves something, I don't see them in the big game like some experts do, but they're one of the few teams I can guarantee for the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6 wins):
They have the ability to play smart, control offense, with lots of running and conservative passing, to supplement the D....
... only the D is getting old. Five years ago, these guys were great. They're slipping big time now. And what is Gruden doing with all his quarterbacks? He keeps dumping them before he sees anything. Jeff Garcia can be good for a while, but he's not a long term answer. Gruden should move on because they need to start over.
They might be able to sneak into the playoffs if other teams slip, but right now, no dice.
Atlanta Falcons (6 wins):
...rough summer, eh?
I actually don't think the subtraction of Vick is going to kill them on the field. They weren't so great anyway. Fans might not show up, and TV will ignore them, but Bobby Petrino is probably happy in a way that Vick's gone. He was tying up most of their salary cap and they kept having the change the offense to suit him.
Now, they'll go with a more pass-friendly offense and not have to worry about making him into a real QB. Joey Harrington is a decent placeholder for a young quarterback that they will undoubtedly get soon. Ironically, they finally got some receivers to help Vick, but they'll help someone else now. With young rookie backs and such, they're actually not so bad off for the next few years. Still, they will suffer now. The defense isn't that great and they have to rebuild their image.
But on the field, they really won't miss him that much. Believe it.
NFC WEST
SEA 10-6
SF 8-8
STL 8-8
ARZ 7-9
Seattle Seahawks (10 wins):
It's fun to bash these guys and say that everyone else in the division can catch them. No one thought they were really the best team in the NFC when they won it, and no one gives them much credit now. But they won the division again last year and nearly knocked the Bears out in the playoffs. They could have been in back to back Super Bowls with a few breaks.
They probably aren't as great as the SB team, but they're still balanced on both sides of the ball. They, like the Eagles, don't have any real threats but a lot of solid guys. Shaun Alexander is dropping off, but he still has a good year or two in him. So does Hasselbeck. They might fade out soon, and the division has gotten better, but they are still the team to beat for me. One more year. They honestly could get back to the Super Bowl quite easily if other teams slip up. Or they could finish third in the west if the Rams and 49ers improve rapidly. I think they'll be in it later than everyone predicts.
San Francisco 49ers (8 wins):
They surprised a lot of people last year and made a late playoff push. Now they're being mentioned as a potential favorite. Not yet, again, I say. Add them to the list of teams that are a year away. I like how the offense is shaping up, but teams will be ready for them and the passing game is still developing. The defense is coming along but needs more people. Another year just out of the playoffs seems likely.
St. Louis Rams (8 wins):
See Niners. Love the O, love the direction, but not enough D and are also a bit young in some places, too old in others. They used to have five receivers who could kill you at any moment. Now, can you name anyone besides Torry Holt? Issac Bruce is almost done.
More importantly: is Jeff Smoker still on this team?
[Don't worry about that one...]
Arizona Cardinals (7 wins):
And again, like the Niners and Rams, some think they could overtake Seattle. Nope. They're even greener than the last two. I do think their offense could be great, but the line needs improvement. It's getting there. I have no idea who any of their defenders are. Not a good sign for a team with this history. People have jumped on their bandwagon before with rough results.
AFC
AFC EAST
NE 13-3
NYJ 8-8
BUF 7-9
MIA 5-11
New England Patriots (13 wins):
Looked awfully mortal last season... and still almost won it all. Then they actually added some people. If they could make it that far without any receivers and a few holes on D, what can they do now?
Hate to say it, but they're the overwhelming favorites. I just don't see that many holes. Baltimore may be better on D, Indy on O, and San Diego has the best team, but the way they've performed, they way they're coached, I have to pick them as the champs. They won titles with much less talent than this.
And by the way, their division SUCKS, so it's not like they'll have a hard time getting to the playoffs and picking up wins. Egad....
New York Jets (8 wins):
No way are they going to sneak in there again. Their schedule sucked and they miraculously got a full season from Chaddington. It won't happen again. I don't know how their offense worked, but it did. They have some decent people now. They're gonna need them.
Buffalo Bills (7 wins):
Poor Buffalo. Ever since a brief, Flutie-fueled resurgence, they've been stuck in mediocrity. They always seem to get to 6,7, or 8 wins, and seem on the brink of doing something, and then nothing. Either the O is great and the D sucks or vice versa. They lost Takeo Spikes and the guy they traded for him, Darwin Walker. They've been questioning J. P. Losman ever since they drafted him, and now are shakily standing behind him.... mainly because there's no one else. 6 or 7 wins is a good mark again.
Miami Dolphins (5 wins):
Much like their upper state rival Bucs, they have a solid D but can't decide on a quarterback. Trent Green is okay, but he's a short term solution. Ronnie Brown should be a fantasy star, but he hasn't done it yet. The defense is still good, but it can't carry this team. They still need a massive overhaul.
AFC SOUTH
IND 11-5
JAX 8-8
TEN 6-10
HOU 3-13
Indianapolis Colts (11 wins):
They got it. Now do they keep it up or relax? I think they overcame huge mental obstacles, but they also got a wave of energy from the D to make it through the playoffs. It's hard to repeat, and they're happy to make it.
Of course, they are still one of the best teams. The offense won't slow down anytime soon. I just wonder how the D will keep it together again.
Jacksonville Jaguars (8 wins):
Good teams do not have quarterback problems like this. Supposed franchise savior Byron Leftwich has been hurt and inconsistent; backup David Garrard became a fan favorite for his Garcia-like efficient play, but in the end, though, neither of them have been that great.
The defense is great, and whatever running back is healthy can take this team far. But they can't make the playoffs in the loaded AFC without a passer.
[EDITOR UPDATE: They cut Leftwich without any deal today, so that means no controversy. But Garrard isn't the best guy either, and now they have no experienced backups. I don't think this will help.]
Tennessee Titans (6 wins):
Surprised a lot of people last year, especially with how fast Vince Young came in. Not this year. Their schedule is rougher and they lost a ton of people. Vince is great, but he might take a step back without any help. They won't surprise again and they won't get close to the postseason.
Houston Texans (3 wins):
Ever since Carolina and Jacksonville started off fast, the NFL has been harsh on expansion teams. Too harsh, perhaps? Both Houston and Cleveland have struggled to get out of the basement. Of course, it seems like they've both entrusted their early management to complete idiots.
It's tough to say if this is the worst run team in the league, but it's close. Arizona's ownership sucks, but they have some potential. Cincinnati turned the corner. Cleveland is trying hard. Basically, it's them and Detroit... not a good group to be in.
They gave up on David Carr, but he wasn't the problem. Their line has always been terrible. Matt Schaub was a good backup, but is he really any better an option? And then the whole not drafting Reggie Bush thing, which they tried to explain because Dominick Davis was great. He wasn't. In fact, he's gone, and even changed his name to start his life over. Wonderful.
This is gonna take a while....
AFC NORTH
PIT 10-6
BAL 10-6
CIN 9-7
CLE 4-12
Pittsburgh Steelers (10 wins):
Last year was a major letdown for them, for the weird occurrences of actually winning it all and then the Ben Accident. They never really got into it... and yet, they won 8 games. So why are people down on them? Assuming Ben comes back without any distractions, they ought to be right back in it.
Tomlin is a fine defensive coach, and that's all they need. They haven't lost too much from the great teams of 2 and 3 years ago, and they brought in some nice young guys. Ten wins is not a problem for this team, but they have to face a killer conference. I'm almost more worried about Willie Parker than Ben's health, because he carried this team.
Baltimore Ravens (10 wins):
After naming them my dark horse team several years in a row, I thought they'd do it. Then they couldn't score. Unlike the Super Bowl squad, efficiency and power running was just not enough. In today's league, offense is necessary. The Patriots rely on Brady, and the Steelers made it when Ben stepped up big. So I don't think Steve McNair is going to be enough anymore.
They did make a nice exchange of Willis McGahee for Jamal Lewis. And the defense is always good for 9 wins, without an offense. So they're still in it. But I can't take them over San Diego or New England without more balance on O.
Cincinnati Bengals (9 wins):
In the NFC they'd be up there with the Saints as a guaranteed playoff team. In the AFC, their great offense merely gets them in the playoff discussion. This team is going to score and put up numbers. If they get anything on D, they could win 12 games. If not, they could miss the playoffs. It's tough for me to put them over Pittsburgh or Baltimore right now, although they're a much different team. Nine wins sounds about right.
Cleveland Browns (4 wins):
See Texans, although I like how they're going now. They have a good nucleus of Brady Quinn, Braylon Edwards, and Kellen Winslow. Romeo Crennel is a good coach and he should be able to get the defense going. They just play in the wrong division. If they were in the South, or in the NFC, they might win 8 games... soon. Right now, right here, they just can't compete.
By the way, what happened to all their backs? Did Jim Brown put a curse on them after he left? They haven't had a star runner since.... well, him, in the 60's, and the only decent guy to come along since then made the weirdest fumble ever. In fact, I think it's solved: all Cleveland running backs are cursed. Jamal Lewis, old and slowing, isn't going to change that.
AFC WEST
SD 12-4
DEN 10-6
KC 7-9
OAK 6-10
San Diego Chargers (12 wins):
Out of nowhere, they turned it around, and now have the league's most ridiculous team. They have the best running back and probable best player; the best tight end; a good quarterback who still could be better; and a great defense.
Of course, they had all that last year and did nothing in the playoffs. I think they'll be smarter and more grounded this year, but it's hard for me to take them over the Patriots. Would you want Norv Turner in a game vs. Belichick? Nevermind that the Pats got a miraculous fumble after the interception - the Chargers just fell apart. So I can't pick them.
I like everything about this team but its coach and its receivers. I suppose if anything crazy happens, they could probably still win it all anyway. I do think Rivers will be better and figure out a way to get Gates and the young wideouts more involved. They're the best team in talent, but can they put it together?
Denver Broncos (10 wins):
It's hard for Shanahan to stay down for too long. He always manages to get to 9 or 10 wins with a decent team, so I think they have to be back in the playoff picture. The defense is fairly good, the running game will be solid, and they have enough weapons to help Jay Cutler. Here are two points I made during our fantasy draft, when I took Cutler and Travis Henry:
1. Cutler actually got to play last year, which is way better than throwing in a guy who's sat, even if he's been around a few years. He did okay, too. He should only get better this year.
2. It was recently discovered that Henry has fathered NINE kids to NINE different women. YOWZA! He's got some motivation. He'll be running from the child support payments, of which he will owe a s---load of money soon. I fully expect him to have the first 3,000 yard season.
[Okay, maybe not. But for a team that likes to change running backs, no one else is really a good pick. It's up to him.]
Kansas City Chiefs (7 wins):
Did they make the playoffs too? They're worse off than the Jets.
They do have a nice ball control offense, built around Larry Johnson and the stable, very slow passing game. Damon Huard looked decent last year, and Tony Gonzalez moves the sticks. This would be a great offense to go with an outstanding, smash mouth defense, like Baltimore.
..... Only their defense sucks.
Huh ????
Herm? HELLO? YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!!!!
Oakland Raiders (6 wins):
They'll be better off this year, because they couldn't be much worse. Their defense is actually good - better than most people realize. They could even make the playoffs with any semblance of an offense. They don't have that... at all.
Still, they have two decent but not great running backs, and some receivers, and two quarterbacks who have been okay... they can manage 5 or 6 wins. Maybe.
@@@@@@@@@
And that's how the regular season goes down.
[cues Jim Mora]
PLAYOFFS???
PLAYOFFS!!!!
DON'T TALK ABOUT PLAYOFFS!!!!
NFC: Seattle over Chicago (Carolina and Philly make it to second round)
AFC: New England over San Diego (Indy and Pittsburgh make it to second round)
SUPER BOWL XLVCM IIIV ( I forget what it is now):
New England 27, Seattle 20
This is boring as hell, but it's what I came up with after reviewing everything. I really hope that this doesn't happen... which is why I'm picking it. Enjoy my ill fortune, jerks!
Let's get right into it.
NFC
NFC EAST
PHL 10-6
DAL 10-6
WSH 7-9
NYG 5-11
Philadelphia Eagles (10 wins):
I'm being cautiously optimistic. No Super Bowl predicitions this year. Nothing said about health. I've had quite enough of that.
The one thing that I can say about the Birds is that they've got as good a chance as anyone. Look at all the other contenders in the NFC. The Bears have major questions on offense, the Saints have major questions on defense, the Panthers were a big disappointment, the Cowboys were very up-and-down last year, the Seahawks have lost people, and no one else really strikes fear yet. I know it's easy for us negative Philly fans to point out all the potential problems they have, but they've got less than everyone else.
There aren't many teams in the league with the balance of O and D. There are concerns on each side (WR, LB) but then there are also proven commodities. Unless someone really steps up, they have to be in the discussion for conference domination.
I loved the Takeo Spikes move, and I think Kevin Curtis is decent enough to help replace Donte Stallworth. Their receivers aren't great, but they're not as terrible as a few years ago either.... and they've got potential.
Of course, I heart Tony Hunt, not just because's a PSU guy, but I've been begging them to get another back for years.
This offense is solid and they fixed a few holes on D. Realistically, they could be the best team in the conference. If Reid continues to let Morningwheg (a bad head coach, but a good coordinator) calm the offense down, they'll be fine. I am confident... cautious, but confident.
[Still refusing to jinx them...]
Dallas Cowboys (10 wins):
I'm sick of people essing their D, and not just because I hate them. They did their best when nobody else in the division was in sync, and they fell apart late. Romo made a lot of news but he's still relatively unproven. TO dropped a lot of key catches last year, so good riddance.
They have talent, no question. But if they could only get 9 wins last year with it, when the conference was terrible, why should they get any more now? Wade Phillips is not a spectacular coach, not worth more than Parcells. I'm honestly not that worried about them. But I'll pick them to do well to help my chi.
Washington Redskins (7 wins):
Joe Gibbs might not have been so stoked about coming back if he knew he'd have to deal with Daniel Snyder. He's still feeling the effects of bringing in pricey vets like Brunell and such.
The good news is that they are getting better. Jason Campbell and Clinton Portis are holding this team up. Defensively, they have no one, but they're starting to get people in.
A lot of people have them marked down as a sleeper this year. I don't buy it, but anything can happen. I think they're definitely a year away, but they could be in it for one of the last playoff spots.
New York Giants (5 wins):
Let's see...
They fell apart like the ending of Mystic River last year....
They lost their key running back who had been doing everything on offense, and he wasn't finished yet....
Their key defensive player almost retired because he hates the coach so much, even though he needed the cash....
And, speaking of the coach, Tom Coughlin is only good for 3 years before he starts wearing on players.
This is year 4.
NORRIS (NFC NORTH)
CHI 11-5
GB 7-9
MIN 7-9
DET 5-11
Chicago Bears (11 wins):
Sometimes I can't believe they were really the NFC champs last year. They had none of the appeal of the old Bears teams. They really started to look shaky on offense late in the season. They dropped the ball so much in the big game, and Rex Grossman became a running joke, albeit leading to a great UCB skit.
So now, a lot of people are dumping them. Well, I also remember the early part of last season when they looked unbeatable. I also see that there aren't enough great teams in the league, especially their division, to unseat them. I think they'll get back to 10 wins or so, easy.
It's all about Rex and the O. If he's good, they can win it all. If not, they'll dump him and just rely on D. I don't see them falling apart, but they won't scare anyone in the playoffs if he struggles.
Green Bay Packers (7 wins):
You could say that Brett Favre is like the guy that used to be in a great band and hasn't sone anything meaningful in the past 20 years. He keeps hanging around the party, makign everyone else feel awkward, but they can't say no to him because he's a legend.
Favre wanted help and the Packers decided to go with a youth movement instead. They've drafted young guys, including another quarterback, at key spots and dumped most veterans. You'd think he'd get the point.... they don't really want him anymore. But he keeps showing up. Dramatically.
Just leave, man. Ironically, this team has a good future. They have nice young guys at every spot. They can't make the playoffs yet, but they'll be good soon.... too late for him.
Minnesota Vikings (7 wins):
This team also has a bright future. Their D is finally solid, and they have pieces on offense. They have also been mentioned as a sleeper should the Bears fail, but I say not yet. The key to this year is how Adrian Peterson and Tavaris Jackson look, and if any of the receivers can do anything. If they do well, this could be the team to beat in a few years. Who knew Brad Childress could handle this? I thought he was Andy Reid's little brother who never said anything. Good work, but not a postseason team this year.
Detroit Lions (5 wins):
People have them as a major sleeper. It seems everyone in this division besides Chicago has potential. Yeah, they've got an interesting mix of offensive potential. But people seem to be forgetting one thing...
They're the Detroit Lions.
F plus.
[click]
NFC SOUTH
CAR 11-5
NO 9-7
TB 6-10
ATL 6-10
Carolina Panthers (11 wins):
I don't know what happened last year. Injuries killed them a few years ago, but they didn't lose that much last year, and yet they struggled. They were my easy pick for the title game beforehand, but now I don't know.
I still think they're dangerous. They have the D. They have depth at running back, more then ever. Jake Delhomme just isn't a consistent quarterback. He winged it during their SB run and it worked. Last year, not so much, because they didn't have anyone besides Steve Smith. Well, they got some good young receivers, and they brought in David Carr as a backup. He could be great with an actual offensive line.
Pressure is on, Jake. I think they're the best team in the NFC if they click. And if not, well, that's just one more team the Eagles don't have to worry about.
New Orleans Saints (9 wins):
I didn't think they were for real last year, up until that last quarter of the Eagles game. They cost me a load of pick'ems. I'm convinced now, but I'm still suspicious about their D and their ability to keep it going with a tougher sked.
There's no question that this offense will be great. It's the best in the NFC. The only matter is if the D is enough. I think that they played on a lot of emotion and surprised teams last year, and it will be hard to repeat. But then again, they really picked it up at the end, especially Reggie Bush. Until their D proves something, I don't see them in the big game like some experts do, but they're one of the few teams I can guarantee for the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6 wins):
They have the ability to play smart, control offense, with lots of running and conservative passing, to supplement the D....
... only the D is getting old. Five years ago, these guys were great. They're slipping big time now. And what is Gruden doing with all his quarterbacks? He keeps dumping them before he sees anything. Jeff Garcia can be good for a while, but he's not a long term answer. Gruden should move on because they need to start over.
They might be able to sneak into the playoffs if other teams slip, but right now, no dice.
Atlanta Falcons (6 wins):
...rough summer, eh?
I actually don't think the subtraction of Vick is going to kill them on the field. They weren't so great anyway. Fans might not show up, and TV will ignore them, but Bobby Petrino is probably happy in a way that Vick's gone. He was tying up most of their salary cap and they kept having the change the offense to suit him.
Now, they'll go with a more pass-friendly offense and not have to worry about making him into a real QB. Joey Harrington is a decent placeholder for a young quarterback that they will undoubtedly get soon. Ironically, they finally got some receivers to help Vick, but they'll help someone else now. With young rookie backs and such, they're actually not so bad off for the next few years. Still, they will suffer now. The defense isn't that great and they have to rebuild their image.
But on the field, they really won't miss him that much. Believe it.
NFC WEST
SEA 10-6
SF 8-8
STL 8-8
ARZ 7-9
Seattle Seahawks (10 wins):
It's fun to bash these guys and say that everyone else in the division can catch them. No one thought they were really the best team in the NFC when they won it, and no one gives them much credit now. But they won the division again last year and nearly knocked the Bears out in the playoffs. They could have been in back to back Super Bowls with a few breaks.
They probably aren't as great as the SB team, but they're still balanced on both sides of the ball. They, like the Eagles, don't have any real threats but a lot of solid guys. Shaun Alexander is dropping off, but he still has a good year or two in him. So does Hasselbeck. They might fade out soon, and the division has gotten better, but they are still the team to beat for me. One more year. They honestly could get back to the Super Bowl quite easily if other teams slip up. Or they could finish third in the west if the Rams and 49ers improve rapidly. I think they'll be in it later than everyone predicts.
San Francisco 49ers (8 wins):
They surprised a lot of people last year and made a late playoff push. Now they're being mentioned as a potential favorite. Not yet, again, I say. Add them to the list of teams that are a year away. I like how the offense is shaping up, but teams will be ready for them and the passing game is still developing. The defense is coming along but needs more people. Another year just out of the playoffs seems likely.
St. Louis Rams (8 wins):
See Niners. Love the O, love the direction, but not enough D and are also a bit young in some places, too old in others. They used to have five receivers who could kill you at any moment. Now, can you name anyone besides Torry Holt? Issac Bruce is almost done.
More importantly: is Jeff Smoker still on this team?
[Don't worry about that one...]
Arizona Cardinals (7 wins):
And again, like the Niners and Rams, some think they could overtake Seattle. Nope. They're even greener than the last two. I do think their offense could be great, but the line needs improvement. It's getting there. I have no idea who any of their defenders are. Not a good sign for a team with this history. People have jumped on their bandwagon before with rough results.
AFC
AFC EAST
NE 13-3
NYJ 8-8
BUF 7-9
MIA 5-11
New England Patriots (13 wins):
Looked awfully mortal last season... and still almost won it all. Then they actually added some people. If they could make it that far without any receivers and a few holes on D, what can they do now?
Hate to say it, but they're the overwhelming favorites. I just don't see that many holes. Baltimore may be better on D, Indy on O, and San Diego has the best team, but the way they've performed, they way they're coached, I have to pick them as the champs. They won titles with much less talent than this.
And by the way, their division SUCKS, so it's not like they'll have a hard time getting to the playoffs and picking up wins. Egad....
New York Jets (8 wins):
No way are they going to sneak in there again. Their schedule sucked and they miraculously got a full season from Chaddington. It won't happen again. I don't know how their offense worked, but it did. They have some decent people now. They're gonna need them.
Buffalo Bills (7 wins):
Poor Buffalo. Ever since a brief, Flutie-fueled resurgence, they've been stuck in mediocrity. They always seem to get to 6,7, or 8 wins, and seem on the brink of doing something, and then nothing. Either the O is great and the D sucks or vice versa. They lost Takeo Spikes and the guy they traded for him, Darwin Walker. They've been questioning J. P. Losman ever since they drafted him, and now are shakily standing behind him.... mainly because there's no one else. 6 or 7 wins is a good mark again.
Miami Dolphins (5 wins):
Much like their upper state rival Bucs, they have a solid D but can't decide on a quarterback. Trent Green is okay, but he's a short term solution. Ronnie Brown should be a fantasy star, but he hasn't done it yet. The defense is still good, but it can't carry this team. They still need a massive overhaul.
AFC SOUTH
IND 11-5
JAX 8-8
TEN 6-10
HOU 3-13
Indianapolis Colts (11 wins):
They got it. Now do they keep it up or relax? I think they overcame huge mental obstacles, but they also got a wave of energy from the D to make it through the playoffs. It's hard to repeat, and they're happy to make it.
Of course, they are still one of the best teams. The offense won't slow down anytime soon. I just wonder how the D will keep it together again.
Jacksonville Jaguars (8 wins):
Good teams do not have quarterback problems like this. Supposed franchise savior Byron Leftwich has been hurt and inconsistent; backup David Garrard became a fan favorite for his Garcia-like efficient play, but in the end, though, neither of them have been that great.
The defense is great, and whatever running back is healthy can take this team far. But they can't make the playoffs in the loaded AFC without a passer.
[EDITOR UPDATE: They cut Leftwich without any deal today, so that means no controversy. But Garrard isn't the best guy either, and now they have no experienced backups. I don't think this will help.]
Tennessee Titans (6 wins):
Surprised a lot of people last year, especially with how fast Vince Young came in. Not this year. Their schedule is rougher and they lost a ton of people. Vince is great, but he might take a step back without any help. They won't surprise again and they won't get close to the postseason.
Houston Texans (3 wins):
Ever since Carolina and Jacksonville started off fast, the NFL has been harsh on expansion teams. Too harsh, perhaps? Both Houston and Cleveland have struggled to get out of the basement. Of course, it seems like they've both entrusted their early management to complete idiots.
It's tough to say if this is the worst run team in the league, but it's close. Arizona's ownership sucks, but they have some potential. Cincinnati turned the corner. Cleveland is trying hard. Basically, it's them and Detroit... not a good group to be in.
They gave up on David Carr, but he wasn't the problem. Their line has always been terrible. Matt Schaub was a good backup, but is he really any better an option? And then the whole not drafting Reggie Bush thing, which they tried to explain because Dominick Davis was great. He wasn't. In fact, he's gone, and even changed his name to start his life over. Wonderful.
This is gonna take a while....
AFC NORTH
PIT 10-6
BAL 10-6
CIN 9-7
CLE 4-12
Pittsburgh Steelers (10 wins):
Last year was a major letdown for them, for the weird occurrences of actually winning it all and then the Ben Accident. They never really got into it... and yet, they won 8 games. So why are people down on them? Assuming Ben comes back without any distractions, they ought to be right back in it.
Tomlin is a fine defensive coach, and that's all they need. They haven't lost too much from the great teams of 2 and 3 years ago, and they brought in some nice young guys. Ten wins is not a problem for this team, but they have to face a killer conference. I'm almost more worried about Willie Parker than Ben's health, because he carried this team.
Baltimore Ravens (10 wins):
After naming them my dark horse team several years in a row, I thought they'd do it. Then they couldn't score. Unlike the Super Bowl squad, efficiency and power running was just not enough. In today's league, offense is necessary. The Patriots rely on Brady, and the Steelers made it when Ben stepped up big. So I don't think Steve McNair is going to be enough anymore.
They did make a nice exchange of Willis McGahee for Jamal Lewis. And the defense is always good for 9 wins, without an offense. So they're still in it. But I can't take them over San Diego or New England without more balance on O.
Cincinnati Bengals (9 wins):
In the NFC they'd be up there with the Saints as a guaranteed playoff team. In the AFC, their great offense merely gets them in the playoff discussion. This team is going to score and put up numbers. If they get anything on D, they could win 12 games. If not, they could miss the playoffs. It's tough for me to put them over Pittsburgh or Baltimore right now, although they're a much different team. Nine wins sounds about right.
Cleveland Browns (4 wins):
See Texans, although I like how they're going now. They have a good nucleus of Brady Quinn, Braylon Edwards, and Kellen Winslow. Romeo Crennel is a good coach and he should be able to get the defense going. They just play in the wrong division. If they were in the South, or in the NFC, they might win 8 games... soon. Right now, right here, they just can't compete.
By the way, what happened to all their backs? Did Jim Brown put a curse on them after he left? They haven't had a star runner since.... well, him, in the 60's, and the only decent guy to come along since then made the weirdest fumble ever. In fact, I think it's solved: all Cleveland running backs are cursed. Jamal Lewis, old and slowing, isn't going to change that.
AFC WEST
SD 12-4
DEN 10-6
KC 7-9
OAK 6-10
San Diego Chargers (12 wins):
Out of nowhere, they turned it around, and now have the league's most ridiculous team. They have the best running back and probable best player; the best tight end; a good quarterback who still could be better; and a great defense.
Of course, they had all that last year and did nothing in the playoffs. I think they'll be smarter and more grounded this year, but it's hard for me to take them over the Patriots. Would you want Norv Turner in a game vs. Belichick? Nevermind that the Pats got a miraculous fumble after the interception - the Chargers just fell apart. So I can't pick them.
I like everything about this team but its coach and its receivers. I suppose if anything crazy happens, they could probably still win it all anyway. I do think Rivers will be better and figure out a way to get Gates and the young wideouts more involved. They're the best team in talent, but can they put it together?
Denver Broncos (10 wins):
It's hard for Shanahan to stay down for too long. He always manages to get to 9 or 10 wins with a decent team, so I think they have to be back in the playoff picture. The defense is fairly good, the running game will be solid, and they have enough weapons to help Jay Cutler. Here are two points I made during our fantasy draft, when I took Cutler and Travis Henry:
1. Cutler actually got to play last year, which is way better than throwing in a guy who's sat, even if he's been around a few years. He did okay, too. He should only get better this year.
2. It was recently discovered that Henry has fathered NINE kids to NINE different women. YOWZA! He's got some motivation. He'll be running from the child support payments, of which he will owe a s---load of money soon. I fully expect him to have the first 3,000 yard season.
[Okay, maybe not. But for a team that likes to change running backs, no one else is really a good pick. It's up to him.]
Kansas City Chiefs (7 wins):
Did they make the playoffs too? They're worse off than the Jets.
They do have a nice ball control offense, built around Larry Johnson and the stable, very slow passing game. Damon Huard looked decent last year, and Tony Gonzalez moves the sticks. This would be a great offense to go with an outstanding, smash mouth defense, like Baltimore.
..... Only their defense sucks.
Huh ????
Herm? HELLO? YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!!!!
Oakland Raiders (6 wins):
They'll be better off this year, because they couldn't be much worse. Their defense is actually good - better than most people realize. They could even make the playoffs with any semblance of an offense. They don't have that... at all.
Still, they have two decent but not great running backs, and some receivers, and two quarterbacks who have been okay... they can manage 5 or 6 wins. Maybe.
@@@@@@@@@
And that's how the regular season goes down.
[cues Jim Mora]
PLAYOFFS???
PLAYOFFS!!!!
DON'T TALK ABOUT PLAYOFFS!!!!
NFC: Seattle over Chicago (Carolina and Philly make it to second round)
AFC: New England over San Diego (Indy and Pittsburgh make it to second round)
SUPER BOWL XLVCM IIIV ( I forget what it is now):
New England 27, Seattle 20
This is boring as hell, but it's what I came up with after reviewing everything. I really hope that this doesn't happen... which is why I'm picking it. Enjoy my ill fortune, jerks!
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