JL 2008 NFL preview

I know I'm one game behind, but here are my picks for the 2008 season:

AFC EAST

Patriots 13-3
Bills 8-8
Jets 8-8
Dolphins 2-14

I didn't think any team had a chance of doing well besides the Pats, but the Bills and Jets have decent schedules. They can fight it out for a playoff spot if they work in their Qb's.

The Dolphins, once again, can suck it.

AFC NORTH

Steelers 10-6
Browns 8-8
Bengals 4-12
Ravens 3-13

Everyone in this division has a brutal schedule. The Steelers are, to me, pretty strong, but they might just wear down. I don't think the Browns were a fluke, and I like their direction, but they're in way over their heads this year. Some people see Baltimore as a sleeper, but how are they going to score? Cinncy has the opposite problem. I'm excited for Ocho Cinco, though. I love seeing his name on official reports.

AFC SOUTH

Jags 12-4
Colts 11-5
Titans 9-7
Texans 7-9

This might be the best division. Jacksonville is a big favorite for a lot of people. The Colts have a tough schedule and Manning is a little hurt, so they will drop, but they can still win 10 games. Tennessee seems to do better than I always think, so I give them the last playoff spot. They do play the Jets and Browns. Houston is getting better, but not quite there yet.

AFC WEST

Chargers 12-4
Broncos 7-9
Raiders 4-12
Chiefs 3-13

The Chargers won't even have to break a sweat in their division games. I'm not even that high on Denver, but they have a lot of easy games. The old Raiders-Chiefs battles are going to be extra ugly this year.

NFC EAST

Cowboys 11-5
Eagles 10-6
Giants 9-7
Redskins 7-9

Everyone loves the Cowboys. I need to find something wrong. I'm going to hope they self-destruct at some point. Their schedule is a lot harder, but they should win this division. I will go on a longer rant about the Iggs at some point, but this looks like another 10 win year for them. Some experts really like them.... a few think they could miss the playoffs... it's tough. I look at the sked and I think 9-11 wins are completely reasonable. The 'Skins aren't terrible, but they keep making too many changes.

NFC NORTH

Packers 9-7
Vikings 8-8
Bears 4-12
Lions 3-13

This will be a fascinating division race because the Packers and Vikings are basically the same team: inexperienced QB, questionable passing game, solid defense and running. I give the Packers a slight edge in talent, plus I think Rodgers will be okay. I'm still not sure about Tavaris Jackson. Alas, ye Bears and Lions; the sidewalk is your pillow yet again.

NFC SOUTH

Saints 12-4
Bucs 9-7
Panthers 8-8
Falcons 3-13

I really like the Saints this year. Their D might be suspect, but their offense is spectacular and their schedule is not too tough. That also helps the Bucs and Panthers. Carolina scares me. I'm done picking them for great things. Atlanta... sorry.

NFC WEST

Seahawks 10-6
Cardinals 7-9
Rams 3-13
49ers 2-14

This is the other bad West. Seattle should be slipping soon, but they just have no challengers. Arizona is still trying to drag Leinart along, but he just isn't working. The Rams are shells of their former selves. The John Taylors are still a mess.

AFC PLAYOFFS

SD over TEN
IND over PIT

JAX over SD
NE over IND

C: NE def JAX

NFC PLAYOFFS

NYG over SEA
PHL over GB

NO over NYG
DAL over PHL

C: NO def DAL

SUPER BOWL XLIII

Patriots 38, Saints 33

Yeah, I know, I don't like this either. I can't find anyone to take down the Pats. They're older, but they still have talent and focus. The Jags and Chargers might challenge, but I don't know about their coaches, and they have flaws on offense. The NFC as a whole is weaker. Anything can happen in the big game, but... every NFC team is flawed, even Dallas. New Orleans has the best O and they can get the best record, which would be big. I can see every team besides the Bears-Rams-Niners-Falcons-Lions mess fighting for playoff spots. This also makes me feel better about Philly: they're not great, but I look at everyone else and say, "Why not them?" I won't pick them, though. I'm cautious. I will pick the Pats and hope my bad luck carries again.

Once again, the possibility of a Pats-Cowboys SB terrifies me. I would have to root for a re-enactment of The Sum of All Fears. Please don't let it happen.

week nine lives

This is a good day as I get to watch two highly anticipated games: the Overhype Bowl between the Pats and Colts (playoffs are all that really matter anymore for them), and a nationally televised Eagles games against the evil Gauchos. I have to be honest though: as much as it disappoints me, the Pats and Cowboys scare the feck out of me, and I can see both of them running up the score. Badly. I hope not, but we'll see.

SF/PEN over ATL (finally, the JT's get a team in more turmoil than selves)
SD over MIN (they get it now, and I think everyone realizes Vikings can't pass)
JAX over NO (Jags still have D intact)
WSH over NYJ (Kellen Clemens, we're sorry)
TB over ARZ (meh, Bucs are feisty now)
CIN over BUF (this feels like a big mistake, but come on, Bengals, you can't miss here)
DEN over DET (someone has to beat Detroit soon)
TEN over CAR (I'd say panthers, but Titans are just doing good)
OAk over HOU (Texans fell apart minus Scaub)
GB over KC (don't care)
SEA over CLE (high scoring game, Hawks back on track)
NE over IND (hate)
DAL over PHL (hate hate hate)
PIT over BAL (Ravens haven't even looked that good, and in the Burgh? no way)

breaking news?

So I never expected to be a blogger who actually "breaks" news or causes an internet controversy, especially because I never expect anyone to read this that I don't already know, but I could be starting internet rumors. I feel like the guy from TMZ, only I'm not a soulless douchebag.

SO:

While I was at home, at certain family member (who will be left unnamed) who works in a lot of construction in South Jersey gave me the lowdown on the Eagles locker room... it's not good. He was in charge of building a fancy new house in Voorhees for one of their key defensive players (again, I can't name names) and all the people were bugging the guy for answers.... answers to questions like, "Why do we suck?"

Apparently, the guy said that the team has completely turned on McNabb, hates him, and even outright tried to get him hurt in that ugly Giants game when they gave up 343 sacks. They haven't quit, but they've pretty much quit on him. They want him gone.

Now....

I don't know the credibility of all involved. Whenever teams do bad, rumors of star inadequacies spread rampantly. Note the Great Gay Pittsburgh Rumor of the late 90's *. The person telling me this noted how people turned on McNabb after his racial comments, which makes me suspicious. White South Jersey football fans were not so forgiving of those comments. Were they just pissed? Did they make this up to feed their anger? It's not so ridiculous as other rumors * that people have started, but you never know....

I personally think that Giants loss, which might have been the worst I have seen them play in years, was for several other reasons. They didn't have Westbrook, and that hurts. They didn't run nearly enough, even though they were doing that fairly well. They had a rookie at left tackle who looked like he didn't know what pass protection is (incidentally, he was great in college at USC and slipped in the draft only for criminal reasons).

Still..... 11 sacks? That's bad. I don't know the state of their locker room, but it looked like they didn't care. And they came back last week, but that was with Westbrook playing and against the Jets, who, no offense, Doctor, are the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked. I suppose the jury is still out on this one. But if the Eagles pull a mutiny and toss McNabb aside and start playing hard for his backup (ummm... which kinda happened last year?) , well, you heard it here first. Sort of.

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*** * The Great Gay Pittsburgh Rumor - in the late 90's, when the Steelers were struggling, the hot rumor spreading around Western PA was that Kordell Stewart (who sucked then) and several former players (who had all left as free agents for other teams) were arrested for soliciting sex from an undercover cop.... a MALE undercover cop. That's right, in the middle of the Steelers sucking, allegedly all the people the fans hated the most all got into the same gay sex scandal at once, but the team covered it up. See, this is why most rumors are stupid.

Tuesday Morning Ranterback

ESPN has a weekly column called Tuesday Morning Quarterback, where a Brookings Fellow (that's a high honor, apparently) writes a long and windy football cloumn with references to military experiments, Haikus, sci-fi cable shows, political policy, and just for kicks, lots of scantily clad cheerleaders. Why can't we do that? Put together, we have five degrees (almost) in a variety of subjects. Danno can handle the history / politcial / military madness, Stev knows all the nerd fests, and I can supply the angry football ranting. As I will now. ESPN, you should be paying us.

First off, I'd like to be the millionth person to send hate the way of Bill Simmons and Colin Cowherd, amnogst other pigskin prognosticators. They managed to convince me that maybe Joey Harrington wasn't a terrible quarterback... maybe he could even do good in Atlanta with no pressure, decent runners, and a good offensive system. BULLOCKS! He's been worse than Vick, and they suck. I thought he would be a clever late round pick in fantasy who could get me some unexpected points. Now I have to cross my fingers with the likes of Jeff Garcia, Josh McCown, and Jay Cutler. ughhhhhh......

Secondly, I just called Houston the worst-run team in the league in my preview and they're already one win away from my projected season total for them. That's no good. Matt Schaub, the pride of West Chester (it's the best Chester!), is looking good and they actually have some players on D.

Detroit is surprising me as well, though I can't tell if they can really keep this going, especially if they have to rely on a guy named J.T. O' Sullivan, who should have a sports bar (or really any bar, tavern, or eating estbalishment with beverages of a refreshing nature served) named after himself immediately.


I'm terrified of picking any more Saints games because I don't want them to kill me like they did last year. Were they that good? Are they that bad now? I was furious at not getting Brees... now Eli is housing him in fantasy points.


I'm also terrified of picking any more games involving Cinncinatti. How the f--- do you give up 51 points to Cleveland? The Cavs scored less than that in the NBA finals. Every game they play could be 56-67, only I can't tell who will win.

Of course, I'm ignoring the most obvious bad news and it is right in our homeland. The Eagles are 0-2 and look like shite. Actually, it's really only the offense who looks bad. The defense has been pretty steady and most of the points given up are on the failures of offense (ball control) and special teams (that first week). I was worried about the front seven, before the season, but they haven't been too bad. The defensive backfield has been good as well, although the safeties, as Stev pointed out, allowed some long passes last night. William James made a good pick but also got beat a couple times. He's a nice nickel back but they need Lito and Sheldon in there.

But my god, the offense looks bad. They're basically relying on Westbrook to bail them out of everything. I know it's easy to trash Donovan, and with his curious comments this week, he's going to get NAILED in the press.

Much like this sympathetic Onionista, I feel for him. I really do. He's had to put up with a lot of crap over the years while not having a ton of weapons. But he just does NOT look good right now. He missed a lot of open people, he can't scramble that much anymore (which is a big relief to opposing defenses - they used to keep an extra linebacker in there to watch him), and he doesn't look sharp in his throwing. Look, it usually takes at least a full year to recover from major knee surgery. He had it at the middle of last season. He admits that he's not at 100 %, but he's probably way lower than he thinks.

Also, his receivers are not getting open. I thought they were decent, and last season, I figured he had the best receving core of his career, besides the TO year.... but now I'm not so sure. Donte Stallworth had some speed, and no one has filled that. Early last year, the Eagles had the opposite of problems, doing well on offense while sputtering a little on D. McNabb was getting long balls to Stallworth and Hank "Put The Lotion in the" Baskett with ease. Now, nothing. Kevin Curtis dropped that pass at the end, which was catchable - despite him being drilled - so he will incure some wrath in Philly this week.

In all, this looks bad, especially with the Cowboys scoring a lot, and my confidence is not too high. We can take heart, however, in one simple fact: the Eagles have a habit of starting slow. Last year, they were good but a bit inconsistent in the first half. When McNabb got hurt, I though they were surely done for, but they simplified the playbook, stepped up on D, and rallied around Jeff Garcia to win the division. In 2002, they were good for the first half but stepped up big in the second half (with a tough schedule) with A. J. Feeley stepping in. In 2003, you may remember, they started out 0-2 by getting DESTROYED at home twice, lost big to the Cowboys, and needed a miracle punt return by Westbrook just to beat the Giants. Well, they ended up with 12 wins that year. So at least the precedent has been set before where they start out poorly, everyone thinks the Cowboys are going to run away with the division, and then they come back strong in the second half.

You may notice that in two of those years, they rallied around a backup QB. Does that mean they don't trust McNabb? No, it means they do better when they simplify things. Right now, with him still hurting, they need to do that. Their defense is okay, so they need to get the running game going and not stress him out. They did that last season with Garcia in, and it worked. I've always liked Andy Reid but I'm gettting a little sick of his stubborn play calling. ESPN showed a graphic last night of how often he chose passing plays vs. the run. He was way higher than other coaches over the past few years, and lately, even higher than that. WHY? This is not the time to have McNabb throwing it every play! Last year, he let Marty Morningwheg, who was a good coordinator in San Francisco, simplify things for Garcia. Why not now? Clearly, McNabb isn't in full game, so why keep treating him like he can handle it????

I have faith in them turning it around, because they've done it before, but it won't happen unless Reid settles the f**K down. I'm wondering how long it will be before people start clamoring for McNabb to be benched or traded.... oh wait, that started at 12:35 AM Eastern time. Fantastic. I can't wait to be in Philly when the Eagles bye week is up and people are ready to storm Joe banner's office.
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[Hey, the Steelers are back! Considering how stupid Baltimore and Cinncy look, they're a lock now. So that's nice.]