justin leo's season preview 2007

LEO'S 2007 NFL PREVIEW

Let's get right into it.


NFC

NFC EAST

PHL 10-6
DAL 10-6
WSH 7-9
NYG 5-11

Philadelphia Eagles (10 wins):

I'm being cautiously optimistic. No Super Bowl predicitions this year. Nothing said about health. I've had quite enough of that.

The one thing that I can say about the Birds is that they've got as good a chance as anyone. Look at all the other contenders in the NFC. The Bears have major questions on offense, the Saints have major questions on defense, the Panthers were a big disappointment, the Cowboys were very up-and-down last year, the Seahawks have lost people, and no one else really strikes fear yet. I know it's easy for us negative Philly fans to point out all the potential problems they have, but they've got less than everyone else.

There aren't many teams in the league with the balance of O and D. There are concerns on each side (WR, LB) but then there are also proven commodities. Unless someone really steps up, they have to be in the discussion for conference domination.

I loved the Takeo Spikes move, and I think Kevin Curtis is decent enough to help replace Donte Stallworth. Their receivers aren't great, but they're not as terrible as a few years ago either.... and they've got potential.

Of course, I heart Tony Hunt, not just because's a PSU guy, but I've been begging them to get another back for years.

This offense is solid and they fixed a few holes on D. Realistically, they could be the best team in the conference. If Reid continues to let Morningwheg (a bad head coach, but a good coordinator) calm the offense down, they'll be fine. I am confident... cautious, but confident.

[Still refusing to jinx them...]

Dallas Cowboys (10 wins):

I'm sick of people essing their D, and not just because I hate them. They did their best when nobody else in the division was in sync, and they fell apart late. Romo made a lot of news but he's still relatively unproven. TO dropped a lot of key catches last year, so good riddance.

They have talent, no question. But if they could only get 9 wins last year with it, when the conference was terrible, why should they get any more now? Wade Phillips is not a spectacular coach, not worth more than Parcells. I'm honestly not that worried about them. But I'll pick them to do well to help my chi.

Washington Redskins (7 wins):

Joe Gibbs might not have been so stoked about coming back if he knew he'd have to deal with Daniel Snyder. He's still feeling the effects of bringing in pricey vets like Brunell and such.

The good news is that they are getting better. Jason Campbell and Clinton Portis are holding this team up. Defensively, they have no one, but they're starting to get people in.

A lot of people have them marked down as a sleeper this year. I don't buy it, but anything can happen. I think they're definitely a year away, but they could be in it for one of the last playoff spots.

New York Giants (5 wins):

Let's see...

They fell apart like the ending of Mystic River last year....

They lost their key running back who had been doing everything on offense, and he wasn't finished yet....

Their key defensive player almost retired because he hates the coach so much, even though he needed the cash....

And, speaking of the coach, Tom Coughlin is only good for 3 years before he starts wearing on players.

This is year 4.

NORRIS (NFC NORTH)

CHI 11-5
GB 7-9
MIN 7-9
DET 5-11

Chicago Bears (11 wins):

Sometimes I can't believe they were really the NFC champs last year. They had none of the appeal of the old Bears teams. They really started to look shaky on offense late in the season. They dropped the ball so much in the big game, and Rex Grossman became a running joke, albeit leading to a great UCB skit.

So now, a lot of people are dumping them. Well, I also remember the early part of last season when they looked unbeatable. I also see that there aren't enough great teams in the league, especially their division, to unseat them. I think they'll get back to 10 wins or so, easy.

It's all about Rex and the O. If he's good, they can win it all. If not, they'll dump him and just rely on D. I don't see them falling apart, but they won't scare anyone in the playoffs if he struggles.

Green Bay Packers (7 wins):

You could say that Brett Favre is like the guy that used to be in a great band and hasn't sone anything meaningful in the past 20 years. He keeps hanging around the party, makign everyone else feel awkward, but they can't say no to him because he's a legend.

Favre wanted help and the Packers decided to go with a youth movement instead. They've drafted young guys, including another quarterback, at key spots and dumped most veterans. You'd think he'd get the point.... they don't really want him anymore. But he keeps showing up. Dramatically.

Just leave, man. Ironically, this team has a good future. They have nice young guys at every spot. They can't make the playoffs yet, but they'll be good soon.... too late for him.

Minnesota Vikings (7 wins):

This team also has a bright future. Their D is finally solid, and they have pieces on offense. They have also been mentioned as a sleeper should the Bears fail, but I say not yet. The key to this year is how Adrian Peterson and Tavaris Jackson look, and if any of the receivers can do anything. If they do well, this could be the team to beat in a few years. Who knew Brad Childress could handle this? I thought he was Andy Reid's little brother who never said anything. Good work, but not a postseason team this year.

Detroit Lions (5 wins):

People have them as a major sleeper. It seems everyone in this division besides Chicago has potential. Yeah, they've got an interesting mix of offensive potential. But people seem to be forgetting one thing...

They're the Detroit Lions.

F plus.

[click]

NFC SOUTH

CAR 11-5
NO 9-7
TB 6-10
ATL 6-10

Carolina Panthers (11 wins):

I don't know what happened last year. Injuries killed them a few years ago, but they didn't lose that much last year, and yet they struggled. They were my easy pick for the title game beforehand, but now I don't know.

I still think they're dangerous. They have the D. They have depth at running back, more then ever. Jake Delhomme just isn't a consistent quarterback. He winged it during their SB run and it worked. Last year, not so much, because they didn't have anyone besides Steve Smith. Well, they got some good young receivers, and they brought in David Carr as a backup. He could be great with an actual offensive line.

Pressure is on, Jake. I think they're the best team in the NFC if they click. And if not, well, that's just one more team the Eagles don't have to worry about.

New Orleans Saints (9 wins):

I didn't think they were for real last year, up until that last quarter of the Eagles game. They cost me a load of pick'ems. I'm convinced now, but I'm still suspicious about their D and their ability to keep it going with a tougher sked.

There's no question that this offense will be great. It's the best in the NFC. The only matter is if the D is enough. I think that they played on a lot of emotion and surprised teams last year, and it will be hard to repeat. But then again, they really picked it up at the end, especially Reggie Bush. Until their D proves something, I don't see them in the big game like some experts do, but they're one of the few teams I can guarantee for the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6 wins):

They have the ability to play smart, control offense, with lots of running and conservative passing, to supplement the D....

... only the D is getting old. Five years ago, these guys were great. They're slipping big time now. And what is Gruden doing with all his quarterbacks? He keeps dumping them before he sees anything. Jeff Garcia can be good for a while, but he's not a long term answer. Gruden should move on because they need to start over.

They might be able to sneak into the playoffs if other teams slip, but right now, no dice.

Atlanta Falcons (6 wins):

...rough summer, eh?

I actually don't think the subtraction of Vick is going to kill them on the field. They weren't so great anyway. Fans might not show up, and TV will ignore them, but Bobby Petrino is probably happy in a way that Vick's gone. He was tying up most of their salary cap and they kept having the change the offense to suit him.

Now, they'll go with a more pass-friendly offense and not have to worry about making him into a real QB. Joey Harrington is a decent placeholder for a young quarterback that they will undoubtedly get soon. Ironically, they finally got some receivers to help Vick, but they'll help someone else now. With young rookie backs and such, they're actually not so bad off for the next few years. Still, they will suffer now. The defense isn't that great and they have to rebuild their image.

But on the field, they really won't miss him that much. Believe it.


NFC WEST

SEA 10-6
SF 8-8
STL 8-8
ARZ 7-9

Seattle Seahawks (10 wins):

It's fun to bash these guys and say that everyone else in the division can catch them. No one thought they were really the best team in the NFC when they won it, and no one gives them much credit now. But they won the division again last year and nearly knocked the Bears out in the playoffs. They could have been in back to back Super Bowls with a few breaks.

They probably aren't as great as the SB team, but they're still balanced on both sides of the ball. They, like the Eagles, don't have any real threats but a lot of solid guys. Shaun Alexander is dropping off, but he still has a good year or two in him. So does Hasselbeck. They might fade out soon, and the division has gotten better, but they are still the team to beat for me. One more year. They honestly could get back to the Super Bowl quite easily if other teams slip up. Or they could finish third in the west if the Rams and 49ers improve rapidly. I think they'll be in it later than everyone predicts.

San Francisco 49ers (8 wins):

They surprised a lot of people last year and made a late playoff push. Now they're being mentioned as a potential favorite. Not yet, again, I say. Add them to the list of teams that are a year away. I like how the offense is shaping up, but teams will be ready for them and the passing game is still developing. The defense is coming along but needs more people. Another year just out of the playoffs seems likely.

St. Louis Rams (8 wins):

See Niners. Love the O, love the direction, but not enough D and are also a bit young in some places, too old in others. They used to have five receivers who could kill you at any moment. Now, can you name anyone besides Torry Holt? Issac Bruce is almost done.

More importantly: is Jeff Smoker still on this team?

[Don't worry about that one...]

Arizona Cardinals (7 wins):

And again, like the Niners and Rams, some think they could overtake Seattle. Nope. They're even greener than the last two. I do think their offense could be great, but the line needs improvement. It's getting there. I have no idea who any of their defenders are. Not a good sign for a team with this history. People have jumped on their bandwagon before with rough results.

AFC

AFC EAST

NE 13-3
NYJ 8-8
BUF 7-9
MIA 5-11

New England Patriots (13 wins):

Looked awfully mortal last season... and still almost won it all. Then they actually added some people. If they could make it that far without any receivers and a few holes on D, what can they do now?

Hate to say it, but they're the overwhelming favorites. I just don't see that many holes. Baltimore may be better on D, Indy on O, and San Diego has the best team, but the way they've performed, they way they're coached, I have to pick them as the champs. They won titles with much less talent than this.

And by the way, their division SUCKS, so it's not like they'll have a hard time getting to the playoffs and picking up wins. Egad....

New York Jets (8 wins):

No way are they going to sneak in there again. Their schedule sucked and they miraculously got a full season from Chaddington. It won't happen again. I don't know how their offense worked, but it did. They have some decent people now. They're gonna need them.

Buffalo Bills (7 wins):

Poor Buffalo. Ever since a brief, Flutie-fueled resurgence, they've been stuck in mediocrity. They always seem to get to 6,7, or 8 wins, and seem on the brink of doing something, and then nothing. Either the O is great and the D sucks or vice versa. They lost Takeo Spikes and the guy they traded for him, Darwin Walker. They've been questioning J. P. Losman ever since they drafted him, and now are shakily standing behind him.... mainly because there's no one else. 6 or 7 wins is a good mark again.

Miami Dolphins (5 wins):

Much like their upper state rival Bucs, they have a solid D but can't decide on a quarterback. Trent Green is okay, but he's a short term solution. Ronnie Brown should be a fantasy star, but he hasn't done it yet. The defense is still good, but it can't carry this team. They still need a massive overhaul.

AFC SOUTH

IND 11-5
JAX 8-8
TEN 6-10
HOU 3-13

Indianapolis Colts (11 wins):

They got it. Now do they keep it up or relax? I think they overcame huge mental obstacles, but they also got a wave of energy from the D to make it through the playoffs. It's hard to repeat, and they're happy to make it.

Of course, they are still one of the best teams. The offense won't slow down anytime soon. I just wonder how the D will keep it together again.

Jacksonville Jaguars (8 wins):

Good teams do not have quarterback problems like this. Supposed franchise savior Byron Leftwich has been hurt and inconsistent; backup David Garrard became a fan favorite for his Garcia-like efficient play, but in the end, though, neither of them have been that great.

The defense is great, and whatever running back is healthy can take this team far. But they can't make the playoffs in the loaded AFC without a passer.

[EDITOR UPDATE: They cut Leftwich without any deal today, so that means no controversy. But Garrard isn't the best guy either, and now they have no experienced backups. I don't think this will help.]

Tennessee Titans (6 wins):

Surprised a lot of people last year, especially with how fast Vince Young came in. Not this year. Their schedule is rougher and they lost a ton of people. Vince is great, but he might take a step back without any help. They won't surprise again and they won't get close to the postseason.

Houston Texans (3 wins):

Ever since Carolina and Jacksonville started off fast, the NFL has been harsh on expansion teams. Too harsh, perhaps? Both Houston and Cleveland have struggled to get out of the basement. Of course, it seems like they've both entrusted their early management to complete idiots.

It's tough to say if this is the worst run team in the league, but it's close. Arizona's ownership sucks, but they have some potential. Cincinnati turned the corner. Cleveland is trying hard. Basically, it's them and Detroit... not a good group to be in.

They gave up on David Carr, but he wasn't the problem. Their line has always been terrible. Matt Schaub was a good backup, but is he really any better an option? And then the whole not drafting Reggie Bush thing, which they tried to explain because Dominick Davis was great. He wasn't. In fact, he's gone, and even changed his name to start his life over. Wonderful.

This is gonna take a while....

AFC NORTH

PIT 10-6
BAL 10-6
CIN 9-7
CLE 4-12

Pittsburgh Steelers (10 wins):

Last year was a major letdown for them, for the weird occurrences of actually winning it all and then the Ben Accident. They never really got into it... and yet, they won 8 games. So why are people down on them? Assuming Ben comes back without any distractions, they ought to be right back in it.

Tomlin is a fine defensive coach, and that's all they need. They haven't lost too much from the great teams of 2 and 3 years ago, and they brought in some nice young guys. Ten wins is not a problem for this team, but they have to face a killer conference. I'm almost more worried about Willie Parker than Ben's health, because he carried this team.

Baltimore Ravens (10 wins):

After naming them my dark horse team several years in a row, I thought they'd do it. Then they couldn't score. Unlike the Super Bowl squad, efficiency and power running was just not enough. In today's league, offense is necessary. The Patriots rely on Brady, and the Steelers made it when Ben stepped up big. So I don't think Steve McNair is going to be enough anymore.

They did make a nice exchange of Willis McGahee for Jamal Lewis. And the defense is always good for 9 wins, without an offense. So they're still in it. But I can't take them over San Diego or New England without more balance on O.

Cincinnati Bengals (9 wins):

In the NFC they'd be up there with the Saints as a guaranteed playoff team. In the AFC, their great offense merely gets them in the playoff discussion. This team is going to score and put up numbers. If they get anything on D, they could win 12 games. If not, they could miss the playoffs. It's tough for me to put them over Pittsburgh or Baltimore right now, although they're a much different team. Nine wins sounds about right.

Cleveland Browns (4 wins):

See Texans, although I like how they're going now. They have a good nucleus of Brady Quinn, Braylon Edwards, and Kellen Winslow. Romeo Crennel is a good coach and he should be able to get the defense going. They just play in the wrong division. If they were in the South, or in the NFC, they might win 8 games... soon. Right now, right here, they just can't compete.

By the way, what happened to all their backs? Did Jim Brown put a curse on them after he left? They haven't had a star runner since.... well, him, in the 60's, and the only decent guy to come along since then made the weirdest fumble ever. In fact, I think it's solved: all Cleveland running backs are cursed. Jamal Lewis, old and slowing, isn't going to change that.

AFC WEST

SD 12-4
DEN 10-6
KC 7-9
OAK 6-10

San Diego Chargers (12 wins):

Out of nowhere, they turned it around, and now have the league's most ridiculous team. They have the best running back and probable best player; the best tight end; a good quarterback who still could be better; and a great defense.

Of course, they had all that last year and did nothing in the playoffs. I think they'll be smarter and more grounded this year, but it's hard for me to take them over the Patriots. Would you want Norv Turner in a game vs. Belichick? Nevermind that the Pats got a miraculous fumble after the interception - the Chargers just fell apart. So I can't pick them.

I like everything about this team but its coach and its receivers. I suppose if anything crazy happens, they could probably still win it all anyway. I do think Rivers will be better and figure out a way to get Gates and the young wideouts more involved. They're the best team in talent, but can they put it together?

Denver Broncos (10 wins):

It's hard for Shanahan to stay down for too long. He always manages to get to 9 or 10 wins with a decent team, so I think they have to be back in the playoff picture. The defense is fairly good, the running game will be solid, and they have enough weapons to help Jay Cutler. Here are two points I made during our fantasy draft, when I took Cutler and Travis Henry:

1. Cutler actually got to play last year, which is way better than throwing in a guy who's sat, even if he's been around a few years. He did okay, too. He should only get better this year.

2. It was recently discovered that Henry has fathered NINE kids to NINE different women. YOWZA! He's got some motivation. He'll be running from the child support payments, of which he will owe a s---load of money soon. I fully expect him to have the first 3,000 yard season.

[Okay, maybe not. But for a team that likes to change running backs, no one else is really a good pick. It's up to him.]

Kansas City Chiefs (7 wins):

Did they make the playoffs too? They're worse off than the Jets.

They do have a nice ball control offense, built around Larry Johnson and the stable, very slow passing game. Damon Huard looked decent last year, and Tony Gonzalez moves the sticks. This would be a great offense to go with an outstanding, smash mouth defense, like Baltimore.

..... Only their defense sucks.

Huh ????

Herm? HELLO? YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!!!!

Oakland Raiders (6 wins):

They'll be better off this year, because they couldn't be much worse. Their defense is actually good - better than most people realize. They could even make the playoffs with any semblance of an offense. They don't have that... at all.

Still, they have two decent but not great running backs, and some receivers, and two quarterbacks who have been okay... they can manage 5 or 6 wins. Maybe.



@@@@@@@@@



And that's how the regular season goes down.


[cues Jim Mora]

PLAYOFFS???

PLAYOFFS!!!!

DON'T TALK ABOUT PLAYOFFS!!!!


NFC: Seattle over Chicago (Carolina and Philly make it to second round)

AFC: New England over San Diego (Indy and Pittsburgh make it to second round)



SUPER BOWL XLVCM IIIV ( I forget what it is now):


New England 27, Seattle 20


This is boring as hell, but it's what I came up with after reviewing everything. I really hope that this doesn't happen... which is why I'm picking it. Enjoy my ill fortune, jerks!