Leo's 2011 over under picks

It's finally time! Football begins tomorrow and I've been putting off my picks until the end. It's been a crazy couple of weeks and everyone needed to see what happened. After hearing the annual Simmons podcast on over unders, I am following suit.

Last year, I went 18-14. Not so great. The year before I went 20-12. I'm still hoping to get to 24 one year.

Let's get started.....

ARIZONA - 7 wins - OVER

Hard to say what is going on here. Last year, they had terrible QB play and still won a few games. With decent work by Kolb, they should be better. But how much? I think 8-8 is possible, even 9-7.

ATLANTA - 10 wins - PUSH

I think they take a step back, but are still good. 10 wins seems just about right. Their schedule is hard but not impossible.

BALTIMORE - 10.5 wins - OVER

I think Baltimore wins the division, although they're not better than the Steelers. They have a slightly easier sked and remember that they won 12 games a year ago with a tougher one. I wouldn't take them in a playoff game, but their record should be good.

BUFFALO - 5.5 wins - UNDER

It's easy to see them being terrible again, but they have just enough guys like Stevie Johnson and Fitzpatrick to make it interesting. They're going to be bad, but are they 3 wins bad or 6 wins bad? When in doubt, Buffalo usually disappoints.

CAROLINA - 4.5 wins - UNDER

It's not getting any easier, and they're throwing a rookie in there right away. No dice.

CINNCINATTI - 5.5 wins - UNDER

Some are talking about them as a surprise. Uh, have they seen the QB situation? They still don't even know if Carson Palmer will show up. That's bad. They're playing a rookie they don't want to because they have no other option.

CHICAGO - 8 wins - UNDER

Everyone is expecting a major step back for them. I have to agree. I trust NO ONE on this team and they got a lot of breaks last year.

CLEVELAND - 7 wins - OVER

I'm somewhat on the bandwagon. 8 or 9 wins seems very possible, but I don't see playoffs. Sure, they have no receivers, but they made progress last year and the sked is not bad at all.

DALLAS - 9 wins - OVER

Do they just automatically pencil in the Cowboys for 89 every year? It happens alot, and they had a streak of winning just that. I'm going slightly over, because 10 sounds right. Their offense will be good and they probably have enough D to survive, but not be a major contender.

DENVER - 6 wins - UNDER

Tough because 6 or 7 seems about right, but I think they have too much turmoil going on to get there. I like John Fox as a coach, but if he wants to make this a defense and running team, as he usually doies, he'll find that they don't have the guys for that.

DETROIT - 8 wins - UNDER

They're a trendy pick, and they are improving, but I want to give them another year. I'm cautious because of injury concerns and them not ever doing anything. They'll be close and a push is likely, but I'll say under.

GREEN BAY - 11.5 wins - OVER

Their division is not so hard, they bring guys back... I don't know if they can repeat, but they will be much better in the regular season at least.

HOUSTON - 9 wins - OVER

INDIANAPOLIS - 9.5 wins - UNDER

I was already leaning towards the Texans over the Colts before the Manning situation got serious. Now, it seems like a no-brainer. I know I picked the Texans last year, like a lot of people, and failed. I know I thought the Colts were slipping, and they still made it. But they looked like they were slowing down even with Peyton. And the Texans are now the best team in this division pretty easily, I'd say. I still have doubts about them, but the fact that they solved their running game says something, even if they didn't win with it last year. They only need to fix a few holes on defense, and that's easier to do than implement new QBs like the rest of the division.

JACKSONVILLE - 6.5 wins - UNDER

They weren't that bad last year, and they might have made a run at this division, but they gave up their QB and their only decent receivers. It's better in the long run, but they will have a rough year now.

KANSAS CITY - 7.5 wins - OVER

Everyone thinks they will fall back to earth this year. I think they could but under 8 wins seems kinda low. They should be able to get to 8 or 9 wins.

MIAMI - 7.5 wins - UNDER

I thought seven or eight wins earlier, but they seem to have a lot of questions on offense now. Looks like they will suck it again.

MINNESOTA - 7 wins - UNDER

They still have AP, but they lost Sidney Rice and others and McNabb is only here as a transition guy. Not a great sign.

NEW ORLEANS - 10 wins - OVER

They made it to 11 wins last year with no running game, no D, and a tougher schedule. I think they're good for that this year.

NEW ENGLAND - 11.5 wins - OVER

At least for the regular season, they take care of things. I didn't expect 14 wins last year and they did it.

NY GIANTS - 9 wins - UNDER

Nine seems ok, but they have issues. I was going to say that the NFC east would have both wild card teams, but after seeing all their injuries, I'm backing off that. They also have a bad sked matchup - they get Saints and Packers as their flex games. Ouch. I could still see them getting to 10 wins and sneaking in the playoffs, but since they lost some of the passing game, I'll go with popular demand and say under.

NY JETS - 10 wins - OVER

They got to 11 last year and it seems like they could do it again. They didn't lose much, and their offense will be a little better.

OAKLAND - 6.5 wins - UNDER

They made some progress last year, and Jason Campbell looked decent, but he has no one to throw to and their top defender left. A small step back this year is way more likely.

PHILADELPHIA - 10.5 wins - OVER

Ok, let's break this down numerically:

I'm going with a conservative estimate. First, I can see the Eagles splitting with the Giants and Cowboys in the division. They should do better, but those games are always unpredictable. They better sweep the fucking Skins or I will break something. So that's 4-2 for the division.

They play the NFC West. This is awesome. They should go 4-0 but I'll say 3-1 just to be safe.

They play the AFC East. This is tougher. I will say 2-2, because I'm going with a tough guess. They could do better.

Their two flex games are intriguing, Bears and Falcons. It seems like, no matter what the records are, they have had the same results with these teams over the past few years: they struggle against the Bears, they do good against the Falcons. I think they're better than both, but I'll call it a split. 1-1.

SO, where does that leave us? That's a pretty conservative estimate and it still leaves them at 10-6. 11-5 is more likely. 12 or 13 wins are possible, depending on how things go. If they do not win 10 games, Andy Reid should be fired immediately.

After the initial hype, a lot of people have been doubting them recently. They've been criticized for bringing in new guys at a time when there are few practices and continuity is said to be great. I keep hearing that, plus a lot of pressure and Vick's injury history against them.

Their basic offensive skill guys are all the same, though, so that's the most important consistency issue. I'm not so worried about working new defenders in; cornerbacks know how to cover and I don't think they'll mess around with them. The offensive line is a problem, but it was last year, too, and that's part of the reason they went with Vick. If he gets hurt, Vince Young is a pretty capable backup, who could be starting for a few teams. He's not great but as a backup, he's pretty high grade. Same with Ronnie Brown and Steve Smith - they aren't so great anymore, and probably won't do much, but just having that depth is a big plus. I think the defense has to be better, and let's remember that they could have won 11 or 12 games last year with a tougher schedule. I don't think they're going to slip under 10.

PITTSBURGH - 10.5 wins - UNDER

They have a history of post-Super Bowl struggles, and they have some injury concerns. Still, they probably have enough to get to 9 or 10 wins.... but 11 seems like a bit much. I'm worried about Rothy and Mendenhall being healthy enough over the whole season. I think they're better than Baltimore but they just won't get the breaks this year.

SAN DIEGO - 10 wins - OVER

They were the most reliable team other than the Colts to always hit the over for the past few years. Then, it all ended last year. But they still finished 9-7 and one game behind, for all their troubles. They just have too much talent to not win this division. They won't go anywhere in the playoffs, but they should have improved enough to get to 11 wins.

SAN FRANCISCO - 7.5 wins - UNDER

They teased us for so long, and it's just not going to happen yet. They can't get a passing game going, and Ted Ginn and Braylon Edwards are drop city. Frank Gore is an injury risk. Last year was their chance to steal a weak division and they didn't get it, and this year will be tougher.

SEATTLE - 6 wins - UNDER

They won the division, but with 7 games. Then the division got better. Then they dumped a solid QB for a much worse one. This will not end well.

ST. LOUIS - 7.5 wins - UNDER

They seem like the logical pick to win this division, with an improved cast around Bradford, who got them further than expected last year.... but not so fast. Their schedule is a killer, and I'm still not sold on them. Steven Jackson is still an injury away from disappearing. I put them behind the Lions and Bucs, and I don't have those teams in the playoffs either.

Here's the deal: Arizona won 5 games last year despite awful QB play, which they have improved. St. Louis won 7 games last year with inspired play, which is tough sometimes to keep up. Their schedules are basically the same .... except the Cardinals get Carolina and Minnesota while the Rams get Green Bay and the Giants. I like what the Rams are doing, but sometimes you fall back in the second year. It'll be tough. I have them just at 7 wins, so I will take under.

TAMPA BAY - 8 wins - PUSH

They surprised everyone last year, but now people see them falling back a little. 8 wins sounds just about right.

TENNESSEE - 6.5 wins - UNDER

It's tough because 7 to 9 wins is possible. I like Hasselbeck as a stopgap, but I don't trust any of their receivers and I don't know if the coaching change will help. I like Jeff Fisher and I think he just had too many problems on offense. I don't know if they're solved. It's tempting with the Colts suffering to go over, but I will say just under.

WASHINGTON - 6 wins - UNDER

I'm enjoying how people are talking themselves into the Skins as a sleeper team. They have NO TALENT ON OFFENSE. None. I know Sexy Rexy once made a Super Bowl with a running/ defense oriented system, but who is he going to throw to? And why didn't he take a commanding lead over the incredibly boring John Beck? How can they win a game in that division with those QBs??? I think this is a ploy and they're really trying for Andrew Luck. They might get him.