Doing this in rapid fire, on a train, with three work things hanging over me...
ARIZONA 5 - OVER
ATLANTA - 8.5 - UNDER
BALTIMORE - 8.5 - OVER
BUFFALO - 7 - UNDER
CAROLINA - 7.5 - OVER
CINCINNATI - 6 - UNDER
CHICAGO - 9 - UNDER
CLEVELAND - 9 - UNDER
DALLAS - 9 - OVER
DENVER - 7 - UNDER
DETROIT - 6.5 - OVER
GREEN BAY - 9 - OVER
HOUSTON - 8.5 - OVER
INDIANAPOLIS - 7.5 - UNDER
JACKSONVILLE - 8 - UNDER
KANSAS CITY - 10.5 - OVER
LA CHARGERS - 9.5 - UNDER
LA RAMS - 10.5 - UNDER
MIAMI - 4.5 - OVER
MINNESOTA - 9 - OVER
NEW ENGLAND - 11 - PUSH
NEW ORLEANS - 10.5 - UNDER
NY GIANTS - 6 - UNDER
NY JETS - 7.5 - OVER
OAKLAND - 6 - UNDER
PITTSBURGH - 9 - UNDER
PHL - 10 - OVER
SAN FRANCISCO - 8 - UNDER
SEATTLE - 8.5 - UNDER
TAMPA BAY - 6.5 - OVER
TENNESSEE - 8 - UNDER
WASHINGTON - 6 - UNDER
.. ok i had to finish later, and now after looking up the iggles schedule i am slightly more nervous. but whatever. this is done.
Showing posts with label over under in and out thats what a hamburger is all about. Show all posts
Showing posts with label over under in and out thats what a hamburger is all about. Show all posts
Thursday, September 05, 2019
Wednesday, September 05, 2018
leo 2018 over under picks, with a superb twist
The twist is this: WHO FUCKING CARES THE EAGLES ACTUALLY WON THE DAMN THING AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAH
But, I'm still going to do it.
But, I'm still going to do it.
Arizona Cardinals 5.5 UNDER
Atlanta Falcons 9 OVER
Baltimore Ravens 8 OVER
Buffalo Bills 6 UNDER
Carolina Panthers 9 UNDER
Chicago Bears 6.5 UNDER
Cincinnati Bengals 6.5 OVER
Cleveland Browns 5.5 UNDER
Dallas Cowboys 8.5 OVER
Denver Broncos 7 OVER
Detroit Lions 7.5 UNDER
Green Bay Packers 10 OVER
Houston Texans 8.5 UNDER
Indianapolis Colts 6.5 OVER
Jacksonville Jaguars 9 OVER
Kansas City Chiefs 8.5 OVER
Los Angeles Chargers 9.5 UNDER
Los Angeles Rams 10 OVER
Miami Dolphins 6.5 OVER
Minnesota Vikings 10 OVER
New England Patriots 11 OVER
New Orleans Saints 9.5 UNDER
New York Giants 7 UNDER
New York Jets 6 UNDER
Oakland Raiders 7.5 OVER
Philadelphia Eagles 10 UNDER
Pittsburgh Steelers 10.5 OVER
San Francisco 49ers 8.5 UNDER
Seattle Seahawks 8 OVER
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.5 UNDER
Tennessee Titans 8 OVER
Washington Redskins 7 OVER
Wednesday, September 09, 2015
Leo's 2015 over under picks
Amazingly enough, I'm again making my picks for all NFL teams based on the odds bookmakers have for their season win totals. I swear I used to be (somewhat) good at this. I have no free time anymore, but I'm still going to try. I'll give it a quick go.
Arizona Cardinals 8.5 - UNDER
I know they've been good, but there's no way Palmer makes it through a full season.
Atlanta Falcons 8.5 - UNDER
Did they really improve the defense that much?
Baltimore Ravens 9.5 - OVER
They seem like the division favorite.
Buffalo Bills 8.5 - UNDER
They came up in a big way, but that QB spot is still rough,
Carolina Panthers 8 - OVER
I hate them the least in the division. Last year that wasn't even worth 9 games.
Chicago Bears 6.5 - OVER
They're better than people expect, but not good. 7 wins is poss.
Cincinnati Bengals 8.5 - OVER
They're going to win 9 or 10 game and lose in the first round of the playoffs until something interesting happens.
Cleveland Browns 6.5 - UNDER
They actually were not bad last year, but then.. it's Cleveland.
Dallas Cowboys 9.5 - OVER
It would be hard for them to get the good luck on D again, but still, they have enough scoring.
Denver Broncos 10.5 - UNDER
Don't think Manning will play a full season.
Detroit Lions 8.5 - UNDER
Two straight winning seasons in Detroit? Doubtful.
Green Bay Packers 11 - OVER
An easy choice is Rodgers is healthy, no matter who he throws to.
Houston Texans 8.5 - UNDER
They came back last year, but they still haven't figured out who QB is.
Indianapolis Colts 10.5 - OVER
Once again, they win by default in lousy division.
Jacksonville Jaguars 5.5 - OVER
They're not good yet, but they could sneak to 6 or 7 wins.
Kansas City Chiefs 8.5 - OVER
Just barely. I hope Maclin has more luck with the injury bug there.
Miami Dolphins 9 - UNDER
We keep waiting for them to be good, but I don't see it.
Minnesota Vikings 7.5 - UNDER
I like Bridgewater and AP is back, but seems like they're asking too much for 8 wins.
New England Patriots 10.5 - OVER
Of course they'll go over. BUT AT WHAT COST???
New Orleans Saints 8.5 - UNDER
Did they really improve the D? And with Jimmy Graham gone?
New York Giants 8 - PUSH
This sounds right for a team that has really gotten boring.
New York Jets 7.5 - UNDER
Geno or not, they're just not good.
Oakland Raiders 6 - UNDER
I like what they're doing, but they don't have enough people.
Philadelphia Eagles 9.5 - UNDER
I want to be optimistic, but that never ends well.
Pittsburgh Steelers 8.5 - OVER
Just barely. Injuries might keep them from division crown.
San Diego Chargers 8.5 - OVER
They're just good enough to be disappointing.
San Francisco 49ers 6.5 - UNDER
Yeah, it's not happening anymore.
Seattle Seahawks 11 - OVER
Usually, the only reason to go under is the tough division, but I don't think it's even that bad.
St. Louis Rams 8 - OVER
They brought in Foles, but there's no offense for him. Still, I like this team and I don't know why.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 - UNDER
Not yet.
Tennessee Titans 5.5 - UNDER
I can't name 4 people on this team.
Washington Redskins 6.5 - UNDER
You get what you got, Danny Boy. Cousins 4 ever!
Arizona Cardinals 8.5 - UNDER
I know they've been good, but there's no way Palmer makes it through a full season.
Atlanta Falcons 8.5 - UNDER
Did they really improve the defense that much?
Baltimore Ravens 9.5 - OVER
They seem like the division favorite.
Buffalo Bills 8.5 - UNDER
They came up in a big way, but that QB spot is still rough,
Carolina Panthers 8 - OVER
I hate them the least in the division. Last year that wasn't even worth 9 games.
Chicago Bears 6.5 - OVER
They're better than people expect, but not good. 7 wins is poss.
Cincinnati Bengals 8.5 - OVER
They're going to win 9 or 10 game and lose in the first round of the playoffs until something interesting happens.
Cleveland Browns 6.5 - UNDER
They actually were not bad last year, but then.. it's Cleveland.
Dallas Cowboys 9.5 - OVER
It would be hard for them to get the good luck on D again, but still, they have enough scoring.
Denver Broncos 10.5 - UNDER
Don't think Manning will play a full season.
Detroit Lions 8.5 - UNDER
Two straight winning seasons in Detroit? Doubtful.
Green Bay Packers 11 - OVER
An easy choice is Rodgers is healthy, no matter who he throws to.
Houston Texans 8.5 - UNDER
They came back last year, but they still haven't figured out who QB is.
Indianapolis Colts 10.5 - OVER
Once again, they win by default in lousy division.
Jacksonville Jaguars 5.5 - OVER
They're not good yet, but they could sneak to 6 or 7 wins.
Kansas City Chiefs 8.5 - OVER
Just barely. I hope Maclin has more luck with the injury bug there.
Miami Dolphins 9 - UNDER
We keep waiting for them to be good, but I don't see it.
Minnesota Vikings 7.5 - UNDER
I like Bridgewater and AP is back, but seems like they're asking too much for 8 wins.
New England Patriots 10.5 - OVER
Of course they'll go over. BUT AT WHAT COST???
New Orleans Saints 8.5 - UNDER
Did they really improve the D? And with Jimmy Graham gone?
New York Giants 8 - PUSH
This sounds right for a team that has really gotten boring.
New York Jets 7.5 - UNDER
Geno or not, they're just not good.
Oakland Raiders 6 - UNDER
I like what they're doing, but they don't have enough people.
Philadelphia Eagles 9.5 - UNDER
I want to be optimistic, but that never ends well.
Pittsburgh Steelers 8.5 - OVER
Just barely. Injuries might keep them from division crown.
San Diego Chargers 8.5 - OVER
They're just good enough to be disappointing.
San Francisco 49ers 6.5 - UNDER
Yeah, it's not happening anymore.
Seattle Seahawks 11 - OVER
Usually, the only reason to go under is the tough division, but I don't think it's even that bad.
St. Louis Rams 8 - OVER
They brought in Foles, but there's no offense for him. Still, I like this team and I don't know why.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 - UNDER
Not yet.
Tennessee Titans 5.5 - UNDER
I can't name 4 people on this team.
Washington Redskins 6.5 - UNDER
You get what you got, Danny Boy. Cousins 4 ever!
Monday, December 29, 2014
Over unders: How I did 2014
Today wraps up another regular season. Let' see how I did this year with the over-under predictions...
Arizona - 7.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG
I thought injuries and a tough division would kill them, but they held tough. Even with Palmer out. I'm impressed, Bruce Arians.
Atlanta - 8.5 wins - UNDER - CORRECT
And they almost won the division anyway.
Baltimore - 8.5 wins - OVER - CORRECT
I had them just over, and they did make it.
Buffalo - 6.5 wins - OVER - CORRECT
I was worried about this but they ended up easily surpassing it. They're good, they just need a QB.
Carolina - 8 wins - UNDER - CORRECT
They did fall apart like people thought, but they rebounded to win the division while still remaining under. Crazy.
Chicago - 8.5 wins - OVER - WRONG
I got suckered into the Bears like many did. Not even close.
Cincinnati - 9 wins - OVER - CORRECT
Not a huge margin, but they get in the playoffs again.
Cleveland - 6.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG
Moral victory for Cleveland!
Dallas - 7.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG
Welp. I thought the bad defense would only get worse.
Denver - 11.5 wins - OVER - CORRECT
[With a healthy Peyton, they should be at 12.] Yes.
Detroit - 8.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG
Why did everyone go for Chicago and not them? I guess we didn't see how good defense could be.
Green Bay - 10.5 wins - OVER - CORRECT
Yeah, you can't go with under 11 wins with a healthy Rodgers in his prime.
Houston - 7.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG
I thought QB play would kill them. Weak division and Watt going crazy kept them around.
Indianapolis - 9.5 wins - OVER - CORRECT
[Once again, the awful division is theirs with no question.] Yeah, pretty much.
Jacksonville - 5 wins - UNDER - CORRECT
They won't be as bad, but they don't have the skill people to get anywhere.
Kansas City - 8.5 wins - OVER - CORRECT
They just barely made it in a game where they didn't score one offensive touchdown.
Miami - 7.5 - OVER - CORRECT
[They should get to 8-8 again, maybe 9 if they get a line.] Seems like they'll be 8-8 forever.
Minnesota - 6 wins - UNDER - WRONG
They were not so bad, even without AP.
New England - 10.5 wins - OVER - CORRECT
[They're a lock for 11 or 12 until Brady dies.] Indeed.
New Orleans - 10.5 wins - OVER - WRONG
The biggest disappointment? Couldn't break even in terrible division.
NY Giants - 8 wins - OVER - WRONG
I'm always scared of them, but they really are bad now.
NY Jets - 7 wins - UNDER - CORRECT
I figured this might happen.
Oakland - 5 wins - UNDER - CORRECT
They didn't have anyone.
Philadelphia - 9 wins - UNDER - WRONG
They did better than I thought; it was just that Dallas was way better than anyone thought.
Pittsburgh - 8.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG
I'm out on my home state teams. They found some nice young guys on O.
San Diego Chargers - 8.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG
They were a popular dark horse, and I doubted them, but they still pulled the over.
San Francisco - 10.5 wins - UNDER - CORRECT
The injuries and suspensions were easy to see, but I didn't think they'd be this bad.
Seattle - 11 wins - OVER - CORRECT
[They'll be the top seed again most likely.] Yes.
St. Louis - 7.5 wins - UNDER - CORRECT
Even if Bradford was healthy that was a high mark.
Tampa Bay - 7 wins - OVER - WRONG
Whoops. Sorry Lovie. It's not you, there is nothing here.
Tennessee - 7 wins - UNDER - CORRECT
I still can't name five guys on this team.
Washington - 7.5 wins - UNDER - CORRECT
You never disappoint me, Danny Boy.
Final tally: 19 correct, 13 wrong.
Not bad. I got over the .500 mark again, but I just missed getting to 20.
Here's the breakdown of the past five years since I started keeping track of this:
Arizona - 7.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG
I thought injuries and a tough division would kill them, but they held tough. Even with Palmer out. I'm impressed, Bruce Arians.
Atlanta - 8.5 wins - UNDER - CORRECT
And they almost won the division anyway.
Baltimore - 8.5 wins - OVER - CORRECT
I had them just over, and they did make it.
Buffalo - 6.5 wins - OVER - CORRECT
I was worried about this but they ended up easily surpassing it. They're good, they just need a QB.
Carolina - 8 wins - UNDER - CORRECT
They did fall apart like people thought, but they rebounded to win the division while still remaining under. Crazy.
Chicago - 8.5 wins - OVER - WRONG
I got suckered into the Bears like many did. Not even close.
Cincinnati - 9 wins - OVER - CORRECT
Not a huge margin, but they get in the playoffs again.
Cleveland - 6.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG
Moral victory for Cleveland!
Dallas - 7.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG
Welp. I thought the bad defense would only get worse.
Denver - 11.5 wins - OVER - CORRECT
[With a healthy Peyton, they should be at 12.] Yes.
Detroit - 8.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG
Why did everyone go for Chicago and not them? I guess we didn't see how good defense could be.
Green Bay - 10.5 wins - OVER - CORRECT
Yeah, you can't go with under 11 wins with a healthy Rodgers in his prime.
Houston - 7.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG
I thought QB play would kill them. Weak division and Watt going crazy kept them around.
Indianapolis - 9.5 wins - OVER - CORRECT
[Once again, the awful division is theirs with no question.] Yeah, pretty much.
Jacksonville - 5 wins - UNDER - CORRECT
They won't be as bad, but they don't have the skill people to get anywhere.
Kansas City - 8.5 wins - OVER - CORRECT
They just barely made it in a game where they didn't score one offensive touchdown.
Miami - 7.5 - OVER - CORRECT
[They should get to 8-8 again, maybe 9 if they get a line.] Seems like they'll be 8-8 forever.
Minnesota - 6 wins - UNDER - WRONG
They were not so bad, even without AP.
New England - 10.5 wins - OVER - CORRECT
[They're a lock for 11 or 12 until Brady dies.] Indeed.
New Orleans - 10.5 wins - OVER - WRONG
The biggest disappointment? Couldn't break even in terrible division.
NY Giants - 8 wins - OVER - WRONG
I'm always scared of them, but they really are bad now.
NY Jets - 7 wins - UNDER - CORRECT
I figured this might happen.
Oakland - 5 wins - UNDER - CORRECT
They didn't have anyone.
Philadelphia - 9 wins - UNDER - WRONG
They did better than I thought; it was just that Dallas was way better than anyone thought.
Pittsburgh - 8.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG
I'm out on my home state teams. They found some nice young guys on O.
San Diego Chargers - 8.5 wins - UNDER - WRONG
They were a popular dark horse, and I doubted them, but they still pulled the over.
San Francisco - 10.5 wins - UNDER - CORRECT
The injuries and suspensions were easy to see, but I didn't think they'd be this bad.
Seattle - 11 wins - OVER - CORRECT
[They'll be the top seed again most likely.] Yes.
St. Louis - 7.5 wins - UNDER - CORRECT
Even if Bradford was healthy that was a high mark.
Tampa Bay - 7 wins - OVER - WRONG
Whoops. Sorry Lovie. It's not you, there is nothing here.
Tennessee - 7 wins - UNDER - CORRECT
I still can't name five guys on this team.
Washington - 7.5 wins - UNDER - CORRECT
You never disappoint me, Danny Boy.
Final tally: 19 correct, 13 wrong.
Not bad. I got over the .500 mark again, but I just missed getting to 20.
Here's the breakdown of the past five years since I started keeping track of this:
2014: 19 right
2013: 14
2012: 14
2011: 13
2010: 18
2009: 20
So this was actually one of my best years. COMEBACK CITY!
Wednesday, September 03, 2014
Leo's 2014 over under picks
Once again, I'm making my picks for all NFL teams based on the odds bookmakers have for their season win totals. This has really gone downhill for me in recent years, but since I don't have anything better to do, I'm pushing on.
Arizona - 7.5 wins - UNDER
Injuries, tough division, no way they repeat last year's success, Palmer faces 3 tough defenses in the division... this one should happen.
Atlanta - 8.5 wins - UNDER
They should bounce back, but their defense is still lacking. Hard to see 9 wins in the NFC.
Baltimore - 8.5 wins - OVER
Just barely. They had problems last year and still finished 8-8. They're not great, but they did bring in some people.
Buffalo - 6.5 wins - OVER
Crazy, but I like them to sneak up on people in this division. They have some talent.
Carolina - 8 wins - UNDER
Everyone sees them as falling apart, and given how much they lost on D and at WR, it's no surprise. They started out at 8.5 and some places have them at 7.5 now. Not good.
Chicago - 8.5 wins - OVER
A lot of people like them, and I guess I do enough. They really blew it down the stretch last year, but supposedly better D is there.
Cincinnati - 9 wins - OVER
People think they're prime for a collapse because of Dalton. He's always been good for the regular season though. And I don't buy the other teams in that division.
Cleveland - 6.5 wins - UNDER
They had so much promise, and then Josh Gordon did the Brownsiest thing you can do. When you don't know, always go under for them.
Dallas - 7.5 wins - UNDER
After their D losses, seems like everyone is down on them. The usual 8-8 is even too high now. I'll take it.
Denver - 11.5 wins - OVER
With a healthy Peyton, they should be at 12.
Detroit - 8.5 wins - UNDER
If they shored up the D or made a good coaching change.... but this.... nope.
Green Bay - 10.5 wins - OVER
Unless Rodgers goes down, 11 wins is nothing for them now.
Houston - 7.5 wins - UNDER
They'll be much better, but over .500? Not with those QBs.
Indianapolis - 9.5 wins - OVER
Once again, the awful division is theirs with no question.
Jacksonville - 5 wins - UNDER
They won't be as bad, but they don't have the skill people to get anywhere.
Kansas City - 8.5 wins - OVER
Everyone thinks they will fall apart, but they've got enough to be fine in the regular season.
Miami - 7.5 - OVER
They should get to 8-8 again, maybe 9 if they get a line.
Minnesota - 6 wins - UNDER
This depends on how quick they go to Bridgewater. They could surprise.
New England - 10.5 wins - OVER
They're a lock for 11 or 12 until Brady dies.
New Orleans - 10.5 wins - OVER
This is tough, they're right there.... they could get 9 and still win the division. 11 is poss.
NY Giants - 8 wins - OVER
I'm always worried. They'll sneak up when you're not expecting it.
NY Jets - 7 wins - UNDER
They surprised people last year, but it's not happening.
Oakland - 5 wins - UNDER
Four wins is better.
Philadelphia - 9 wins - UNDER
See last post. Everyone seems optimistic. I am not, jsut because. They should have the division, but they could do that with 8 or 9 wins.
Pittsburgh - 8.5 wins - UNDER
I can't believe they made it to 8 wins with all that trouble. Still not sold.
San Diego Chargers - 8.5 wins - UNDER
They've become a popular pick, but that D....
San Francisco - 10.5 wins - UNDER
All the suspensions and injuries will hurt them, but they'll be close to this.
Seattle - 11 wins - OVER
They didn't lose much, and the division isn't as crazy as we thought. They'll be the top seed again most likely.
St. Louis - 7.5 wins - UNDER
The over was tough before Bradford got hurt, and now it's really tough to see.
Tampa Bay - 7 wins - OVER
I think they get slightly over with a little help.
Tennessee - 7 wins - UNDER
I know... 2 of their players? Maybe 3?
Washington - 7.5 wins - UNDER
I'd be a little worried if they weren't such a mess. Thank you, Danny Boy.
Arizona - 7.5 wins - UNDER
Injuries, tough division, no way they repeat last year's success, Palmer faces 3 tough defenses in the division... this one should happen.
Atlanta - 8.5 wins - UNDER
They should bounce back, but their defense is still lacking. Hard to see 9 wins in the NFC.
Baltimore - 8.5 wins - OVER
Just barely. They had problems last year and still finished 8-8. They're not great, but they did bring in some people.
Buffalo - 6.5 wins - OVER
Crazy, but I like them to sneak up on people in this division. They have some talent.
Carolina - 8 wins - UNDER
Everyone sees them as falling apart, and given how much they lost on D and at WR, it's no surprise. They started out at 8.5 and some places have them at 7.5 now. Not good.
Chicago - 8.5 wins - OVER
A lot of people like them, and I guess I do enough. They really blew it down the stretch last year, but supposedly better D is there.
Cincinnati - 9 wins - OVER
People think they're prime for a collapse because of Dalton. He's always been good for the regular season though. And I don't buy the other teams in that division.
Cleveland - 6.5 wins - UNDER
They had so much promise, and then Josh Gordon did the Brownsiest thing you can do. When you don't know, always go under for them.
Dallas - 7.5 wins - UNDER
After their D losses, seems like everyone is down on them. The usual 8-8 is even too high now. I'll take it.
Denver - 11.5 wins - OVER
With a healthy Peyton, they should be at 12.
Detroit - 8.5 wins - UNDER
If they shored up the D or made a good coaching change.... but this.... nope.
Green Bay - 10.5 wins - OVER
Unless Rodgers goes down, 11 wins is nothing for them now.
Houston - 7.5 wins - UNDER
They'll be much better, but over .500? Not with those QBs.
Indianapolis - 9.5 wins - OVER
Once again, the awful division is theirs with no question.
Jacksonville - 5 wins - UNDER
They won't be as bad, but they don't have the skill people to get anywhere.
Kansas City - 8.5 wins - OVER
Everyone thinks they will fall apart, but they've got enough to be fine in the regular season.
Miami - 7.5 - OVER
They should get to 8-8 again, maybe 9 if they get a line.
Minnesota - 6 wins - UNDER
This depends on how quick they go to Bridgewater. They could surprise.
New England - 10.5 wins - OVER
They're a lock for 11 or 12 until Brady dies.
New Orleans - 10.5 wins - OVER
This is tough, they're right there.... they could get 9 and still win the division. 11 is poss.
NY Giants - 8 wins - OVER
I'm always worried. They'll sneak up when you're not expecting it.
NY Jets - 7 wins - UNDER
They surprised people last year, but it's not happening.
Oakland - 5 wins - UNDER
Four wins is better.
Philadelphia - 9 wins - UNDER
See last post. Everyone seems optimistic. I am not, jsut because. They should have the division, but they could do that with 8 or 9 wins.
Pittsburgh - 8.5 wins - UNDER
I can't believe they made it to 8 wins with all that trouble. Still not sold.
San Diego Chargers - 8.5 wins - UNDER
They've become a popular pick, but that D....
San Francisco - 10.5 wins - UNDER
All the suspensions and injuries will hurt them, but they'll be close to this.
Seattle - 11 wins - OVER
They didn't lose much, and the division isn't as crazy as we thought. They'll be the top seed again most likely.
St. Louis - 7.5 wins - UNDER
The over was tough before Bradford got hurt, and now it's really tough to see.
Tampa Bay - 7 wins - OVER
I think they get slightly over with a little help.
Tennessee - 7 wins - UNDER
I know... 2 of their players? Maybe 3?
Washington - 7.5 wins - UNDER
I'd be a little worried if they weren't such a mess. Thank you, Danny Boy.
Monday, December 30, 2013
Predictions: how i did in 2013
Welp, I think this was pretty terrible. Not even going to think I hit half. The original article is in italics, with my results in regular font.
Arizona Cardinals - 5.5 - UNDER - WRONG
People seem to think they could be ok this year. I'm still not sure Carson Palmer is better than what they've had, and the division is brutal.
They were very good and could have easily made the playoffs in the AFC, or any other division. Their D was superb, and Palmer was ok, though he did have a ton of picks.
Atlanta Falcons - 10 - OVER - WRONG
They've been a pretty safe bet to get to 10 or 11 wins every year. I don't see why that stops this year. They could sneak into the Super Bowl like they almost did last year.
Yeesh. Like a lot of people, I expected them to be pretty safe to get to wins, and then everything fell apart.
Baltimore Ravens - 8.5 - UNDER - CORRECT
They got rid of a lot of people, and for good reason, but they will have to take a step back, and injuries have killed their offense.
Just barely made this. They weren't terrible.
Buffalo Bills - 6.5 - UNDER - CORRECT
Just give it to C.J. Spiller all the time. There's no hope here. /fantasy plug
Another one I just barely got. They were actually competitive again. There's finally hope here.
Carolina Panthers - 7 - OVER - CORRECT
They seemed to be a little disappointed last year and still finished 7-9. They can probably get to 8 wins.
They were much better. I was shaky on this one but they were way over.
Chicago Bears - 8.5 - OVER - WRONG
I think the new coach and offensive change will be good for this season. Don't know about the future, but it will help them.
Just a tad low. Amazing that they couldn't win this division with Rodgers out and the Lions falling apart.
Cincinnati Bengals - 8.5 - OVER - CORRECT
I didn't think they could put together two good seasons in a row, and that killed me last year. They are suddenly the best team in the division.
They are the best in this division.
Cleveland Browns - 6 - OVER - WRONG
I kind of like this team, and with the Ravens and Steelers slipping, they might just be able. Not a tough schedule, so I'll give it to them... but you can never trust Cleveland.
FUCK ME. I went against my old rule: when you're not sure, don't expect good things to happen to Cleveland. I bought into the hype, and they were ok for a while, but that was bad. Never again.
Dallas Cowboys - 8.5 - OVER - WRONG
Nine wins and a playoff exit? Yes they can.
Just under, but man, it was worth it to see them mess it up again at the end.
Denver Broncos - 11.5 - UNDER - WRONG
Just slightly worried that they might get to 11 and not more, but they should still win the division easily.
They still got to 13 pretty easily. Manningface doesn't stop.
Detroit Lions - 8 - UNDER - CORRECT
Tough. 8-8 seems good, but I'll go under. They'll bounce back, but they have too many defensive worries to make it far.
I forgot I did get the under on this. They SHOULD have been a lot better.
Green Bay Packers - 10.5 - OVER - WRONG
A lot of people seem to think they will be down, but a healthy Aaron Rodgers is pretty much a guarantee for 11 wins.
....and when Aaron Rodgers is not healthy, they aren't. Rough year.
Houston Texans - 10.5 - OVER - WRONG
They'll run through their division again, and be on top for 12 wins.
Good LORD. They managed to have the worst record in the league, even playing the weakest division. How they got below Jacksonville is incomprehensible.
Indianapolis Colts - 8.5 - UNDER - WRONG
They will drop back, but not so far, because Luck is still good. Still, they're probably not going to make it to 9-10 wins again.
...or they will, because Houston is awful and no one else was going to win this shit division.
Jacksonville Jaguars - 5 - UNDER - CORRECT
Until they figure out QB, nothing really matters.
I started to worry a little bit about this one at the end. They almost topped it with a run late. Maybe they're not the worst.
Kansas City Chiefs - 7.5 - OVER - CORRECT
There's Andy Reid! He actually is a nice fit for this team. And Alex Smith is a nice fit for him. They might just sneak into the playoffs.
They did make it. Actually one of the easier calls.
Miami Dolphins - 8 - UNDER - WRONG
I didn't like them last year and they burned me. Well, I don't like them this year. Need way more on offense.
Well, they got 8 exact, so I guess I should have gone push. Weird year for them, they seemed like a playoff team, then had controversy and looked awful, then still seemed like a playoff team until they blew it in the last week.
Minnesota Vikings - 7.5 - UNDER - CORRECT
No one saw them coming last year. Unlike the Colts, they didn't use an easy schedule to jump to the playoffs, so they shouldn't fall back.... except everyone hates Christian Ponder. And he lost Percy Harvin. And they're not as good as Bears or Packers.
We all saw this coming. Yes, everyone hates Christian Ponder.
New England Patriots - 11 - PUSH - WRONG
If they were in any other division, all their offensive losses would catch up to them. But they play in the AFC east, so of course they're going to walk through it again.
They made it to 12 wins again. They're the anti-Cleveland.
New Orleans Saints - 9 - OVER - CORRECT
Sean Payton is back and even with questions on D, he's usually has this team at 10 wins.
Just like that, they're back in it.
New York Giants - 9 - PUSH - WRONG
They keep getting there, and I think they'll be back in that area again. Some people are a little down on them, but I trust them the most out of anyone in the NFC east.
Finally, they had a down year, though they somehow ended up with seven wins. Again I'm not too sad to be wrong here.
New York Jets - 6.5 - UNDER - WRONG
This is a giant train wreck and there's no way it ends well.
Well, I'm sure only a few people saw them actually doing ok. As Magary said, there's no way you can convince me they are 8-8, even though they are.
Oakland Raiders - 5.5 - UNDER - CORRECT
Even if Matt Flynn looked ok, and he doesn't, he has no one to go to. Hard to believe they were actually kind of good 2 years ago.
It seemed like they might be not so bad at times, but there they are at 4 wins again.
Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 - UNDER - WRONG
Well, I've learned, if I'm not sure, take the under. Then at least I'll be pleasantly surprised if they do well.
SEE!! SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU SET YOUR EXPECTATIONS LOW ALL THE TIME??? E ! A ! ahhhh.... I really need to figure this team out.
Pittsburgh Steelers - 9 - UNDER - CORRECT
They're tough, but 8-8 is a real possibility. The schedule is hard and they're not getting younger.
I even guessed it on the nose. Hard to believe they were this close to a playoff spot.
San Diego Chargers - 7.5 - UNDER - WRONG
They used to be reliable for the over, even though you knew they'd screw up in the playoffs. Then, after a few years of Norv, that wasn't true anymore. Now, Norv is gone, so I don't know how to approach this.... until I looked and saw that they really just don't have that talent anymore, and a lot of people are hurt. Sorry Marmalard.
Maybe it was that easy as dumping Norv. They were up and down all year but they made it.
San Francisco 49ers - 11 - UNDER - WRONG
I still like them, but they have a hard schedule and they're going to have a few problems on offense. 10 wins seems better, but I wouldn't be surprised if they went over.
GAH. Halfway through the season, it looked like they were in trouble and could miss the playoffs. Then they finished strong to go over.
Seattle Seahawks - 10.5 - OVER - CORRECT
If they won 11 last year, and have improved.... it's weird for me to have them winning more games than the 49ers, but they were only half a game behind the 49ers last year, so maybe it makes sense. They're loaded.
They weren't always stunning but they did get the wins.
St. Louis Rams - 7.5 - OVER - WRONG
This is a hard one. They're not bad, but their schedule and division are killer. They made it to 7 wins last year, but it's so tough. I will take the over strictly on Jeff Fisher. His teams usually over perform.
So close. We almost had everyone in one division hit the over. That never happens.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7.5 - UNDER - CORRECT
They came back last year, but no one there seems to have any faith in Josh Freeman, so that's a problem. Their division is better, too. I could see them sneaking into the playoffs but I'm guessing not.
BRING BACK RAHEEM MORRIS!
Tennessee Titans - 6.5 - UNDER - WRONG
There's no one that really scares you here, not even Chris Johnson at this point.
Seriously? Another one I missed by a half win? They're the definition of mediocre.
Washington Redskins - 8.5 - UNDER - CORRECT
I didn't seem them coming last year. RGIII was indeed great. But I don't trust his health, and their schedule is tough, and people will be planning for them. That's enough to call a drop back.
Oh yeah. That's right. Just when you think they're going good, just know that at some point, Daniel Snyder will fuck everything up.
So.... the grand total..... 14 out of 32 correct for a .4375 win percentage. Awful.
I thought this was the worst I've ever done, but it was the same as last year. I swear I used to be good at this. I got 20 right a few years ago. Sigh.... to next year.
Arizona Cardinals - 5.5 - UNDER - WRONG
People seem to think they could be ok this year. I'm still not sure Carson Palmer is better than what they've had, and the division is brutal.
They were very good and could have easily made the playoffs in the AFC, or any other division. Their D was superb, and Palmer was ok, though he did have a ton of picks.
Atlanta Falcons - 10 - OVER - WRONG
They've been a pretty safe bet to get to 10 or 11 wins every year. I don't see why that stops this year. They could sneak into the Super Bowl like they almost did last year.
Yeesh. Like a lot of people, I expected them to be pretty safe to get to wins, and then everything fell apart.
Baltimore Ravens - 8.5 - UNDER - CORRECT
They got rid of a lot of people, and for good reason, but they will have to take a step back, and injuries have killed their offense.
Just barely made this. They weren't terrible.
Buffalo Bills - 6.5 - UNDER - CORRECT
Just give it to C.J. Spiller all the time. There's no hope here. /fantasy plug
Another one I just barely got. They were actually competitive again. There's finally hope here.
Carolina Panthers - 7 - OVER - CORRECT
They seemed to be a little disappointed last year and still finished 7-9. They can probably get to 8 wins.
They were much better. I was shaky on this one but they were way over.
Chicago Bears - 8.5 - OVER - WRONG
I think the new coach and offensive change will be good for this season. Don't know about the future, but it will help them.
Just a tad low. Amazing that they couldn't win this division with Rodgers out and the Lions falling apart.
Cincinnati Bengals - 8.5 - OVER - CORRECT
I didn't think they could put together two good seasons in a row, and that killed me last year. They are suddenly the best team in the division.
They are the best in this division.
Cleveland Browns - 6 - OVER - WRONG
I kind of like this team, and with the Ravens and Steelers slipping, they might just be able. Not a tough schedule, so I'll give it to them... but you can never trust Cleveland.
FUCK ME. I went against my old rule: when you're not sure, don't expect good things to happen to Cleveland. I bought into the hype, and they were ok for a while, but that was bad. Never again.
Dallas Cowboys - 8.5 - OVER - WRONG
Nine wins and a playoff exit? Yes they can.
Just under, but man, it was worth it to see them mess it up again at the end.
Denver Broncos - 11.5 - UNDER - WRONG
Just slightly worried that they might get to 11 and not more, but they should still win the division easily.
They still got to 13 pretty easily. Manningface doesn't stop.
Detroit Lions - 8 - UNDER - CORRECT
Tough. 8-8 seems good, but I'll go under. They'll bounce back, but they have too many defensive worries to make it far.
I forgot I did get the under on this. They SHOULD have been a lot better.
Green Bay Packers - 10.5 - OVER - WRONG
A lot of people seem to think they will be down, but a healthy Aaron Rodgers is pretty much a guarantee for 11 wins.
....and when Aaron Rodgers is not healthy, they aren't. Rough year.
Houston Texans - 10.5 - OVER - WRONG
They'll run through their division again, and be on top for 12 wins.
Good LORD. They managed to have the worst record in the league, even playing the weakest division. How they got below Jacksonville is incomprehensible.
Indianapolis Colts - 8.5 - UNDER - WRONG
They will drop back, but not so far, because Luck is still good. Still, they're probably not going to make it to 9-10 wins again.
...or they will, because Houston is awful and no one else was going to win this shit division.
Jacksonville Jaguars - 5 - UNDER - CORRECT
Until they figure out QB, nothing really matters.
I started to worry a little bit about this one at the end. They almost topped it with a run late. Maybe they're not the worst.
Kansas City Chiefs - 7.5 - OVER - CORRECT
There's Andy Reid! He actually is a nice fit for this team. And Alex Smith is a nice fit for him. They might just sneak into the playoffs.
They did make it. Actually one of the easier calls.
Miami Dolphins - 8 - UNDER - WRONG
I didn't like them last year and they burned me. Well, I don't like them this year. Need way more on offense.
Well, they got 8 exact, so I guess I should have gone push. Weird year for them, they seemed like a playoff team, then had controversy and looked awful, then still seemed like a playoff team until they blew it in the last week.
Minnesota Vikings - 7.5 - UNDER - CORRECT
No one saw them coming last year. Unlike the Colts, they didn't use an easy schedule to jump to the playoffs, so they shouldn't fall back.... except everyone hates Christian Ponder. And he lost Percy Harvin. And they're not as good as Bears or Packers.
We all saw this coming. Yes, everyone hates Christian Ponder.
New England Patriots - 11 - PUSH - WRONG
If they were in any other division, all their offensive losses would catch up to them. But they play in the AFC east, so of course they're going to walk through it again.
They made it to 12 wins again. They're the anti-Cleveland.
New Orleans Saints - 9 - OVER - CORRECT
Sean Payton is back and even with questions on D, he's usually has this team at 10 wins.
Just like that, they're back in it.
New York Giants - 9 - PUSH - WRONG
They keep getting there, and I think they'll be back in that area again. Some people are a little down on them, but I trust them the most out of anyone in the NFC east.
Finally, they had a down year, though they somehow ended up with seven wins. Again I'm not too sad to be wrong here.
New York Jets - 6.5 - UNDER - WRONG
This is a giant train wreck and there's no way it ends well.
Well, I'm sure only a few people saw them actually doing ok. As Magary said, there's no way you can convince me they are 8-8, even though they are.
Oakland Raiders - 5.5 - UNDER - CORRECT
Even if Matt Flynn looked ok, and he doesn't, he has no one to go to. Hard to believe they were actually kind of good 2 years ago.
It seemed like they might be not so bad at times, but there they are at 4 wins again.
Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 - UNDER - WRONG
Well, I've learned, if I'm not sure, take the under. Then at least I'll be pleasantly surprised if they do well.
SEE!! SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU SET YOUR EXPECTATIONS LOW ALL THE TIME??? E ! A ! ahhhh.... I really need to figure this team out.
Pittsburgh Steelers - 9 - UNDER - CORRECT
They're tough, but 8-8 is a real possibility. The schedule is hard and they're not getting younger.
I even guessed it on the nose. Hard to believe they were this close to a playoff spot.
San Diego Chargers - 7.5 - UNDER - WRONG
They used to be reliable for the over, even though you knew they'd screw up in the playoffs. Then, after a few years of Norv, that wasn't true anymore. Now, Norv is gone, so I don't know how to approach this.... until I looked and saw that they really just don't have that talent anymore, and a lot of people are hurt. Sorry Marmalard.
Maybe it was that easy as dumping Norv. They were up and down all year but they made it.
San Francisco 49ers - 11 - UNDER - WRONG
I still like them, but they have a hard schedule and they're going to have a few problems on offense. 10 wins seems better, but I wouldn't be surprised if they went over.
GAH. Halfway through the season, it looked like they were in trouble and could miss the playoffs. Then they finished strong to go over.
Seattle Seahawks - 10.5 - OVER - CORRECT
If they won 11 last year, and have improved.... it's weird for me to have them winning more games than the 49ers, but they were only half a game behind the 49ers last year, so maybe it makes sense. They're loaded.
They weren't always stunning but they did get the wins.
St. Louis Rams - 7.5 - OVER - WRONG
This is a hard one. They're not bad, but their schedule and division are killer. They made it to 7 wins last year, but it's so tough. I will take the over strictly on Jeff Fisher. His teams usually over perform.
So close. We almost had everyone in one division hit the over. That never happens.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7.5 - UNDER - CORRECT
They came back last year, but no one there seems to have any faith in Josh Freeman, so that's a problem. Their division is better, too. I could see them sneaking into the playoffs but I'm guessing not.
BRING BACK RAHEEM MORRIS!
Tennessee Titans - 6.5 - UNDER - WRONG
There's no one that really scares you here, not even Chris Johnson at this point.
Seriously? Another one I missed by a half win? They're the definition of mediocre.
Washington Redskins - 8.5 - UNDER - CORRECT
I didn't seem them coming last year. RGIII was indeed great. But I don't trust his health, and their schedule is tough, and people will be planning for them. That's enough to call a drop back.
Oh yeah. That's right. Just when you think they're going good, just know that at some point, Daniel Snyder will fuck everything up.
So.... the grand total..... 14 out of 32 correct for a .4375 win percentage. Awful.
I thought this was the worst I've ever done, but it was the same as last year. I swear I used to be good at this. I got 20 right a few years ago. Sigh.... to next year.
Thursday, August 29, 2013
Leo's over under predictions for 2013
I'm not even going to go into what I did last year. Let's just say it was bad, maybe the worst in the almost a decade I've been doing this, and move on. Here's my picks for this year's NFL win totals, based on the official odds from Vegas sports books.
Arizona Cardinals - 5.5 - UNDER
People seem to think they could be ok this year. I'm still not sure Carson Palmer is better than what they've had, and the division is brutal.
Atlanta Falcons - 10 - OVER
They've been a pretty safe bet to get to 10 or 11 wins every year. I don't see why that stops this year. They could sneak into the Super Bowl like they almost did last year.
Baltimore Ravens - 8.5 - UNDER
They got rid of a lot of people, and for good reason, but they will have to take a step back, and injuries have killed their offense.
Buffalo Bills - 6.5 - UNDER
Just give it to C.J. Spiller all the time. There's no hope here. /fantasy plug
Carolina Panthers - 7 - OVER
They seemed to be a little disappointed last year and still finished 7-9. They can probably get to 8 wins.
Chicago Bears - 8.5 - OVER
I think the new coach and offensive change will be good for this season. Don't know about the future, but it will help them.
Cincinnati Bengals - 8.5 - OVER
I didn't think they could put together two good seasons in a row, and that killed me last year. They are suddenly the best team in the division.
Cleveland Browns - 6 - OVER
I kind of like this team, and with the Ravens and Steelers slipping, they might just be able. Not a tough schedule, so I'll give it to them... but you can never trust Cleveland.
Dallas Cowboys - 8.5 - OVER
Nine wins and a playoff exit? Yes they can.
Denver Broncos - 11.5 - UNDER
Just slightly worried that they might get to 11 and not more, but they should still win the division easily.
Detroit Lions - 8 - UNDER
Tough. 8-8 seems good, but I'll go under. They'll bounce back, but they have too many defensive worries to make it far.
Green Bay Packers - 10.5 - OVER
A lot of people seem to think they will be down, but a healthy Aaron Rodgers is pretty much a guarantee for 11 wins.
Houston Texans - 10.5 - OVER
They'll run through their division again, and be on top for 12 wins.
Indianapolis Colts - 8.5 - UNDER
They will drop back, but not so far, because Luck is still good. Still, they're probably not going to make it to 9-10 wins again.
Jacksonville Jaguars - 5 - UNDER
Until they figure out QB, nothing really matters.
Kansas City Chiefs - 7.5 - OVER
There's Andy Reid! He actually is a nice fit for this team. And Alex Smith is a nice fit for him. They might just sneak into the playoffs.
Miami Dolphins - 8 - UNDER
I didn't like them last year and they burned me. Well, I don't like them this year. Need way more on offense.
Minnesota Vikings - 7.5 - UNDER
No one saw them coming last year. Unlike the Colts, they didn't use an easy schedule to jump to the playoffs, so they shouldn't fall back.... except everyone hates Christian Ponder. And he lost Percy Harvin. And they're not as good as Bears or Packers.
New England Patriots - 11 - PUSH
If they were in any other division, all their offensive losses would catch up to them. But they play in the AFC east, so of course they're going to walk through it again.
New Orleans Saints - 9 - OVER
Sean Payton is back and even with questions on D, he's usually has this team at 10 wins.
New York Giants - 9 - PUSH
They keep getting there, and I think they'll be back in that area again. Some people are a little down on them, but I trust them the most out of anyone in the NFC east.
New York Jets - 6.5 - UNDER
This is a giant train wreck and there's no way it ends well.
Oakland Raiders - 5.5 - UNDER
Even if Matt Flynn looked ok, and he doesn't, he has no one to go to. Hard to believe they were actually kind of good 2 years ago.
Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 - UNDER
Well, I've learned, if I'm not sure, take the under. Then at least I'll be pleasantly surprised if t Pittsburgh Steelers - 9 - UNDER
They're tough, but 8-8 is a real possibility. The schedule is hard and they're not getting younger.
San Diego Chargers - 7.5 - UNDER
They used to be reliable for the over, even though you knew they'd screw up in the playoffs. Then, after a few years of Norv, that wasn't true anymore. Now, Norv is gone, so I don't know how to approach this.... until I looked and saw that they really just don't have that talent anymore, and a lot of people are hurt. Sorry Marmalard.
San Francisco 49ers - 11 - UNDER
I still like them, but they have a hard schedule and they're going to have a few problems on offense. 10 wins seems better, but I wouldn't be surprised if they went over.
Seattle Seahawks - 10.5 - OVER
If they won 11 lat year, and have improved.... it's weird for me to have them winning more games than the 49ers, but they were only half a game behind the 49ers last year, so maybe it makes sense. They're loaded.
St. Louis Rams - 7.5 - OVER
This is a hard one. They're not bad, but their schedule and division are killer. They made it to 7 wins last year, but it's so tough. I will take the over strictly on Jeff Fisher. His teams usually over perform.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7.5 - UNDER
They came back last year, but no one there seems to have any faith in Josh Freeman, so that's a problem. Their division is better, too. I could see them sneaking into the playoffs but I'm guessing not.
Tennessee Titans - 6.5 - UNDER
There's no one that really scares you here, not even Chris Johnson at this point.
Washington Redskins - 8.5 - UNDER
I didn't seem them coming last year. RGIII was indeed great. But I don't trust his health, and their schedule is tough, and people will be planning for them. That's enough to call a drop back.
Arizona Cardinals - 5.5 - UNDER
People seem to think they could be ok this year. I'm still not sure Carson Palmer is better than what they've had, and the division is brutal.
Atlanta Falcons - 10 - OVER
They've been a pretty safe bet to get to 10 or 11 wins every year. I don't see why that stops this year. They could sneak into the Super Bowl like they almost did last year.
Baltimore Ravens - 8.5 - UNDER
They got rid of a lot of people, and for good reason, but they will have to take a step back, and injuries have killed their offense.
Buffalo Bills - 6.5 - UNDER
Just give it to C.J. Spiller all the time. There's no hope here. /fantasy plug
Carolina Panthers - 7 - OVER
They seemed to be a little disappointed last year and still finished 7-9. They can probably get to 8 wins.
Chicago Bears - 8.5 - OVER
I think the new coach and offensive change will be good for this season. Don't know about the future, but it will help them.
Cincinnati Bengals - 8.5 - OVER
I didn't think they could put together two good seasons in a row, and that killed me last year. They are suddenly the best team in the division.
Cleveland Browns - 6 - OVER
I kind of like this team, and with the Ravens and Steelers slipping, they might just be able. Not a tough schedule, so I'll give it to them... but you can never trust Cleveland.
Dallas Cowboys - 8.5 - OVER
Nine wins and a playoff exit? Yes they can.
Denver Broncos - 11.5 - UNDER
Just slightly worried that they might get to 11 and not more, but they should still win the division easily.
Detroit Lions - 8 - UNDER
Tough. 8-8 seems good, but I'll go under. They'll bounce back, but they have too many defensive worries to make it far.
Green Bay Packers - 10.5 - OVER
A lot of people seem to think they will be down, but a healthy Aaron Rodgers is pretty much a guarantee for 11 wins.
Houston Texans - 10.5 - OVER
They'll run through their division again, and be on top for 12 wins.
Indianapolis Colts - 8.5 - UNDER
They will drop back, but not so far, because Luck is still good. Still, they're probably not going to make it to 9-10 wins again.
Jacksonville Jaguars - 5 - UNDER
Until they figure out QB, nothing really matters.
Kansas City Chiefs - 7.5 - OVER
There's Andy Reid! He actually is a nice fit for this team. And Alex Smith is a nice fit for him. They might just sneak into the playoffs.
Miami Dolphins - 8 - UNDER
I didn't like them last year and they burned me. Well, I don't like them this year. Need way more on offense.
Minnesota Vikings - 7.5 - UNDER
No one saw them coming last year. Unlike the Colts, they didn't use an easy schedule to jump to the playoffs, so they shouldn't fall back.... except everyone hates Christian Ponder. And he lost Percy Harvin. And they're not as good as Bears or Packers.
New England Patriots - 11 - PUSH
If they were in any other division, all their offensive losses would catch up to them. But they play in the AFC east, so of course they're going to walk through it again.
New Orleans Saints - 9 - OVER
Sean Payton is back and even with questions on D, he's usually has this team at 10 wins.
New York Giants - 9 - PUSH
They keep getting there, and I think they'll be back in that area again. Some people are a little down on them, but I trust them the most out of anyone in the NFC east.
New York Jets - 6.5 - UNDER
This is a giant train wreck and there's no way it ends well.
Oakland Raiders - 5.5 - UNDER
Even if Matt Flynn looked ok, and he doesn't, he has no one to go to. Hard to believe they were actually kind of good 2 years ago.
Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 - UNDER
Well, I've learned, if I'm not sure, take the under. Then at least I'll be pleasantly surprised if t Pittsburgh Steelers - 9 - UNDER
They're tough, but 8-8 is a real possibility. The schedule is hard and they're not getting younger.
San Diego Chargers - 7.5 - UNDER
They used to be reliable for the over, even though you knew they'd screw up in the playoffs. Then, after a few years of Norv, that wasn't true anymore. Now, Norv is gone, so I don't know how to approach this.... until I looked and saw that they really just don't have that talent anymore, and a lot of people are hurt. Sorry Marmalard.
San Francisco 49ers - 11 - UNDER
I still like them, but they have a hard schedule and they're going to have a few problems on offense. 10 wins seems better, but I wouldn't be surprised if they went over.
Seattle Seahawks - 10.5 - OVER
If they won 11 lat year, and have improved.... it's weird for me to have them winning more games than the 49ers, but they were only half a game behind the 49ers last year, so maybe it makes sense. They're loaded.
St. Louis Rams - 7.5 - OVER
This is a hard one. They're not bad, but their schedule and division are killer. They made it to 7 wins last year, but it's so tough. I will take the over strictly on Jeff Fisher. His teams usually over perform.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7.5 - UNDER
They came back last year, but no one there seems to have any faith in Josh Freeman, so that's a problem. Their division is better, too. I could see them sneaking into the playoffs but I'm guessing not.
Tennessee Titans - 6.5 - UNDER
There's no one that really scares you here, not even Chris Johnson at this point.
Washington Redskins - 8.5 - UNDER
I didn't seem them coming last year. RGIII was indeed great. But I don't trust his health, and their schedule is tough, and people will be planning for them. That's enough to call a drop back.
Wednesday, January 09, 2013
Leo's over unders 2012: RESULTS
Oh, this is not going to be good. No sir. Let's see how I did this year (predictions in italics, results in bold).
Arizona Cardinals 6.5 - OVER
They maanged to sneak in 8 wins last year despite all the QB controversy. Nothing has really changed, but I think they can get to 7 in this awful division.
INCORRECT. Apparently, letting your quarterback get killed on every play WILL have a negative effect on your record, no matter how good your defense is.
Atlanta Falcons 9 - OVER
10 wins is their norm. They can get to 10 or 11 every year without problem.
YES. They're like the Braves of football. They win games, just not in the postseason.
Baltimore Ravens 10 - PUSH
That sounds about right. I like this team, but I think they need one more year to get more offensive help and Suggs back.
YES. A rare push call, but it made sense.
Buffalo Bills 8 - OVER
People think they could be a sleeper, and they started out hot last year, but still finished 6-10. 8-8 seems good, although with the right breaks, they could go higher. Their schedule is super easy, so that helps.
INCORRECT. Why did we like them? They never come through.
Carolina Panthers 7.5 - UNDER
People think they're going to hit it big with Cam, but I'm waiting. The division is still tough and they haven't figured everything out.
YES. Kind of a wacky ride, where I looked right at first, then hung on as they made a run. They just finish short.
Chicago Bears 9.5 - OVER
If Cutler hadn't gotten hurt last season, they would've likely been in the playoffs. I think they can get to 10 or more.
YES. But it wasn't enough to get to the playoffs, or save Lovie.
Cincinnati Bengals 8 - UNDER
Yeah, they surprised everyone, and they're young, but have they ever been able to string together 2 good seasons in a row in the recent era? Nope.
INCORRECT. Well, Marvin Lewis, you finally put together 2 straight winning seasons. I didn't think it was possible. Now if they can ever win a playoff game....
Cleveland Browns 5 - UNDER
It's Cleveland.
INCORRECT. This is why this is hard. Vegas got it exact. 4 or 5 seems to be the norm here.
Dallas Cowboys 8.5 - OVER
9 wins and a first round loss in the playoffs isn't even guaranteed for them anymore, but I liked it.
INCORRECT. Just missed it, but oh, was it fun seeing them blow it again.
Denver Broncos 8.5 - OVER
Yes, I am buying the Manning rejuvenation. Even if he's 60 % of what he was, he's still better than Tebow. John Fox did well with bad QBs, and now he's got a great one, even if not full. I think they keep him protected, throw a lot of short passes early, and that'll be enough in the AFC west.
YES. This is my only sure thing that happened.
Detroit Lions 9 - UNDER
Classic step-back season. They came up big, but have had too many distractions to not take a small decline. And they have no running backs. And Stafford could be hurt any day. And they benefitted the msot from Cutler being hurt last year. Too hard to see them getting back to playoffs.
YES. No one should be surprised here.
Green Bay Packers 11.5 - OVER
Their defense is the key to whether or not they get back to the Super Bowl, but for the regular season, their offense alone is enough to get them to 12-13 wins.
INCORRECT. Although (and I'm sure their fans would make the case) this hinges on RefGate. But really, they should have won that last regular season game against the Vikings. I'm still pissed.
Houston Texans 10 - OVER
They finally broke through last year and the division is terrible. Easy
YES. It was easy.
Indianapolis Colts 5.5 - UNDER
Luck will be fine his rookie year, but there's too many holes in other places that were covered up the past few years before Manning's absence exposed them. They need time to rebuild.
INCORRECT. Dammit, I should've just taken the over with that easy, easy sked and the upgrade from awful QBs to Luck.
Jacksonville Jaguars 5.5 - OVER
Not much of a vote of confidence, but they ought to be able to get at least 6 wins. They have the D, and they won 5 last year with everything going wrong.
INCORRECT. Oh gawd. I guess I thought Jacksonville and not Indy would be the beneficiary of an easy schedule and that division. Let that be the last time anyone took Blaine Gabbert over Andrew Luck in anything.
Kansas City Chiefs 8 - PUSH
Some optimism here, but I jsut don't think they're that good. LAst year they had problems, but even when they were good the year before, they weren't amazing. 8 wins is right on the money.
INCORRECT. Ha, good luck, Reid.
Miami Dolphins 6.5 - UNDER
They're going with a rookie QB and not giving him anyone to help. Not a good look this year.
INCORRECT. Feck, the late push gave them barely over. Tannehill actually did some stuff.
Minnesota Vikings 6 - UNDER
Not for a long, long time.
INCORRECT. Well, this is my worst one. I'm going to say that they're my biggest surprise. Even with the Colts, you could talk me into them being ok based on an easy sked and Luck's development. The Vikings had to beat the Niners, Bears, and Packers to get in the playoffs, and Ponder wasn't even that good. AP earned everything he'll be getting.
New England Patriots 12 - OVER
They don't have any problem winning in the regular season. With a not-so-good division and a fairly easy schedule, doesn't seem like they can slip.
INCORRECT. I hate you, Vegas. Right on the money.
New Orleans Saints 10 - UNDER
I don't think they'll fall apart from all the stuff that happens, and I could see them winning 12 without problem. But the division is a little tougher, schedule is tough, and 9 wins is more reasonable.
YES. Too much stuff for them to handle.
New York Giants 9 - OVER
So hard to tell where they're heading. The last time they won it all, they came back with a great record the next year but lost early in the playoffs. I'll take that.
INCORRECT. Well, they usually don't post the same exact record twice. That was unforeseen.
New York Jets 8.5 - UNDER
Aside from the controversy that Tebow-Snachez brings, they don't even have anyone for them to throw to. I think Tebow is mostly used as a runner anyway, and the D is nice, but the passing game is still bad and it's not all Sanchez's fault. Their receivers are TERRIBLE. Winning more than 7-8 games with a rush-only attack is hard.
YES. I guess this was pretty obvious in hindsight.
Oakland Raiders 7 - OVER
If Jason Campbell didn't get hurt last year, they would have won the division easily.. but he did, they panicked and traded for Carson Palmer, and now they're ok.
INCORRECT. Why did they fire their last coach again?
Philadelphia Eagles 10 - UNDER
I... I'm not getting my hopes up anymore. I know better. I'll go under and keep expectations low, so if nice things happen, I will appreciate them. (Besides, my very conservative estimate has them at 9 wins. They should have done it last year.)
YES. Well we all know what happened here.
/slits wrists
Pittsburgh Steelers 10 - OVER
They claim the division again this year, but only because I don't trust Cinncy and Baltimore enough, and the sked is not too bad. They're getting old in spots.
INCORRECT. Age and injuries did catch up to them this time.
San Diego Chargers 9 - UNDER
They used to be a guaranteed over for the regular season, but they can't even get that right anymore. Sorry Norv. No one trusts you.
YES. I'm going to miss you, Norv. No one was as dependable at failing.
San Francisco 49ers 10 - OVER
I do think they will fall back a bit, but the division is still bad enough and their schedule easy enough to get to 11 wins without problem. They made some nice moves to get depth, so even if they're not as lucky, they have more people now.
YES. They had to fight for it, but they made it.
Seattle Seahawks 7.5 - UNDER
See Dolphins. Rookie QB plus no one to throw to is unsettling.
INCORRECT. All our logic about rookie QBs is gone. Pete Carroll is having fun. EVERYTHING IS UPSIDE DOWN.
St. Louis Rams 6 - UNDER
I'm a little tempted to go with the over because I really like Jeff Fisher, who always overachieved in Tennessee, but they just don't have the talent.
INCORRECT. They just made it over. Should've trusted Fisher.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 - OVER
They weren't as bad as they were last year. They also weren't as good as they thought when they won 10 the year before. 7 or 8 wins is a nice middle.
YES. They looked even better earlier, then fell apart, but still made it. They had bizarro seasons with Carolina and somehow ended up in the same place.
Tennessee Titans 7.5 - UNDER
Uncertainty on offense kills them.
YES. I had to look this one up because I knew they were bad, but I wasn't sure how bad. What a forgettable team.
Washington Redskins 6.5 - UNDER
Everyone is thinking they will be a sleeper, but RG3 can't carry them yet and he has no help. I'm worried about them, for sure, but I don't think they make any big jumps this year.
INCORRECT. Well, at least I hate them a lot less than the Cowboys and Giants.
RESULTS: 14-18 (.4375)
Yep, my first year going under .500 in picks. I don't know if I will be back next year, or if I ever should try this again. Not a good showing.
Arizona Cardinals 6.5 - OVER
They maanged to sneak in 8 wins last year despite all the QB controversy. Nothing has really changed, but I think they can get to 7 in this awful division.
INCORRECT. Apparently, letting your quarterback get killed on every play WILL have a negative effect on your record, no matter how good your defense is.
Atlanta Falcons 9 - OVER
10 wins is their norm. They can get to 10 or 11 every year without problem.
YES. They're like the Braves of football. They win games, just not in the postseason.
Baltimore Ravens 10 - PUSH
That sounds about right. I like this team, but I think they need one more year to get more offensive help and Suggs back.
YES. A rare push call, but it made sense.
Buffalo Bills 8 - OVER
People think they could be a sleeper, and they started out hot last year, but still finished 6-10. 8-8 seems good, although with the right breaks, they could go higher. Their schedule is super easy, so that helps.
INCORRECT. Why did we like them? They never come through.
Carolina Panthers 7.5 - UNDER
People think they're going to hit it big with Cam, but I'm waiting. The division is still tough and they haven't figured everything out.
YES. Kind of a wacky ride, where I looked right at first, then hung on as they made a run. They just finish short.
Chicago Bears 9.5 - OVER
If Cutler hadn't gotten hurt last season, they would've likely been in the playoffs. I think they can get to 10 or more.
YES. But it wasn't enough to get to the playoffs, or save Lovie.
Cincinnati Bengals 8 - UNDER
Yeah, they surprised everyone, and they're young, but have they ever been able to string together 2 good seasons in a row in the recent era? Nope.
INCORRECT. Well, Marvin Lewis, you finally put together 2 straight winning seasons. I didn't think it was possible. Now if they can ever win a playoff game....
Cleveland Browns 5 - UNDER
It's Cleveland.
INCORRECT. This is why this is hard. Vegas got it exact. 4 or 5 seems to be the norm here.
Dallas Cowboys 8.5 - OVER
9 wins and a first round loss in the playoffs isn't even guaranteed for them anymore, but I liked it.
INCORRECT. Just missed it, but oh, was it fun seeing them blow it again.
Denver Broncos 8.5 - OVER
Yes, I am buying the Manning rejuvenation. Even if he's 60 % of what he was, he's still better than Tebow. John Fox did well with bad QBs, and now he's got a great one, even if not full. I think they keep him protected, throw a lot of short passes early, and that'll be enough in the AFC west.
YES. This is my only sure thing that happened.
Detroit Lions 9 - UNDER
Classic step-back season. They came up big, but have had too many distractions to not take a small decline. And they have no running backs. And Stafford could be hurt any day. And they benefitted the msot from Cutler being hurt last year. Too hard to see them getting back to playoffs.
YES. No one should be surprised here.
Green Bay Packers 11.5 - OVER
Their defense is the key to whether or not they get back to the Super Bowl, but for the regular season, their offense alone is enough to get them to 12-13 wins.
INCORRECT. Although (and I'm sure their fans would make the case) this hinges on RefGate. But really, they should have won that last regular season game against the Vikings. I'm still pissed.
Houston Texans 10 - OVER
They finally broke through last year and the division is terrible. Easy
YES. It was easy.
Indianapolis Colts 5.5 - UNDER
Luck will be fine his rookie year, but there's too many holes in other places that were covered up the past few years before Manning's absence exposed them. They need time to rebuild.
INCORRECT. Dammit, I should've just taken the over with that easy, easy sked and the upgrade from awful QBs to Luck.
Jacksonville Jaguars 5.5 - OVER
Not much of a vote of confidence, but they ought to be able to get at least 6 wins. They have the D, and they won 5 last year with everything going wrong.
INCORRECT. Oh gawd. I guess I thought Jacksonville and not Indy would be the beneficiary of an easy schedule and that division. Let that be the last time anyone took Blaine Gabbert over Andrew Luck in anything.
Kansas City Chiefs 8 - PUSH
Some optimism here, but I jsut don't think they're that good. LAst year they had problems, but even when they were good the year before, they weren't amazing. 8 wins is right on the money.
INCORRECT. Ha, good luck, Reid.
Miami Dolphins 6.5 - UNDER
They're going with a rookie QB and not giving him anyone to help. Not a good look this year.
INCORRECT. Feck, the late push gave them barely over. Tannehill actually did some stuff.
Minnesota Vikings 6 - UNDER
Not for a long, long time.
INCORRECT. Well, this is my worst one. I'm going to say that they're my biggest surprise. Even with the Colts, you could talk me into them being ok based on an easy sked and Luck's development. The Vikings had to beat the Niners, Bears, and Packers to get in the playoffs, and Ponder wasn't even that good. AP earned everything he'll be getting.
New England Patriots 12 - OVER
They don't have any problem winning in the regular season. With a not-so-good division and a fairly easy schedule, doesn't seem like they can slip.
INCORRECT. I hate you, Vegas. Right on the money.
New Orleans Saints 10 - UNDER
I don't think they'll fall apart from all the stuff that happens, and I could see them winning 12 without problem. But the division is a little tougher, schedule is tough, and 9 wins is more reasonable.
YES. Too much stuff for them to handle.
New York Giants 9 - OVER
So hard to tell where they're heading. The last time they won it all, they came back with a great record the next year but lost early in the playoffs. I'll take that.
INCORRECT. Well, they usually don't post the same exact record twice. That was unforeseen.
New York Jets 8.5 - UNDER
Aside from the controversy that Tebow-Snachez brings, they don't even have anyone for them to throw to. I think Tebow is mostly used as a runner anyway, and the D is nice, but the passing game is still bad and it's not all Sanchez's fault. Their receivers are TERRIBLE. Winning more than 7-8 games with a rush-only attack is hard.
YES. I guess this was pretty obvious in hindsight.
Oakland Raiders 7 - OVER
If Jason Campbell didn't get hurt last year, they would have won the division easily.. but he did, they panicked and traded for Carson Palmer, and now they're ok.
INCORRECT. Why did they fire their last coach again?
Philadelphia Eagles 10 - UNDER
I... I'm not getting my hopes up anymore. I know better. I'll go under and keep expectations low, so if nice things happen, I will appreciate them. (Besides, my very conservative estimate has them at 9 wins. They should have done it last year.)
YES. Well we all know what happened here.
/slits wrists
Pittsburgh Steelers 10 - OVER
They claim the division again this year, but only because I don't trust Cinncy and Baltimore enough, and the sked is not too bad. They're getting old in spots.
INCORRECT. Age and injuries did catch up to them this time.
San Diego Chargers 9 - UNDER
They used to be a guaranteed over for the regular season, but they can't even get that right anymore. Sorry Norv. No one trusts you.
YES. I'm going to miss you, Norv. No one was as dependable at failing.
San Francisco 49ers 10 - OVER
I do think they will fall back a bit, but the division is still bad enough and their schedule easy enough to get to 11 wins without problem. They made some nice moves to get depth, so even if they're not as lucky, they have more people now.
YES. They had to fight for it, but they made it.
Seattle Seahawks 7.5 - UNDER
See Dolphins. Rookie QB plus no one to throw to is unsettling.
INCORRECT. All our logic about rookie QBs is gone. Pete Carroll is having fun. EVERYTHING IS UPSIDE DOWN.
St. Louis Rams 6 - UNDER
I'm a little tempted to go with the over because I really like Jeff Fisher, who always overachieved in Tennessee, but they just don't have the talent.
INCORRECT. They just made it over. Should've trusted Fisher.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 - OVER
They weren't as bad as they were last year. They also weren't as good as they thought when they won 10 the year before. 7 or 8 wins is a nice middle.
YES. They looked even better earlier, then fell apart, but still made it. They had bizarro seasons with Carolina and somehow ended up in the same place.
Tennessee Titans 7.5 - UNDER
Uncertainty on offense kills them.
YES. I had to look this one up because I knew they were bad, but I wasn't sure how bad. What a forgettable team.
Washington Redskins 6.5 - UNDER
Everyone is thinking they will be a sleeper, but RG3 can't carry them yet and he has no help. I'm worried about them, for sure, but I don't think they make any big jumps this year.
INCORRECT. Well, at least I hate them a lot less than the Cowboys and Giants.
RESULTS: 14-18 (.4375)
Yep, my first year going under .500 in picks. I don't know if I will be back next year, or if I ever should try this again. Not a good showing.
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