Leo's NFL over unders 2012

No need for an intro. I've been doing this for a while now. Vegas presents their odds on wins, and I pick over or under. Let's get started.....

Arizona Cardinals 6.5 - OVER

They maanged to sneak in 8 wins last year despite all the QB controversy. Nothing has really changed, but I think they can get to 7 in this awful division.


Atlanta Falcons 9 - OVER

10 wins is their norm. They can get to 10 or 11 every year without problem.

Baltimore Ravens 10  - PUSH

That sounds about right. I like this team, but I think they need one more year to get more offensive help and Suggs back.

Buffalo Bills 8  - OVER

People think they could be a sleeper, and they started out hot last year, but still finished 6-10. 8-8 seems good, although with the right breaks, they could go higher. Their schedule is super easy, so that helps.
Carolina Panthers 7.5 - UNDER
People think they're going to hit it big with Cam, but I'm waiting. The division is still tough and they haven't figured everything out.

Chicago Bears 9.5 - OVER
If Cutler hadn't gotten hurt last season, they would've likely been in the playoffs. I think they can get to 10 or more.

Cincinnati Bengals 8 - UNDER

Yeah, they surprised everyone, and they're young, but have they ever been able to string together 2 good seasons in a row in the recent era? Nope.

Cleveland Browns 5 - UNDER
It's Cleveland.

Dallas Cowboys 8.5 - OVER

9 wins and a first round loss in the playoffs isn't even guaranteed for them anymore, but I liked it.

Denver Broncos 8.5 - OVER

Yes, I am buying the Manning rejuvenation. Even if he's 60 % of what he was, he's still better than Tebow. John Fox did well with bad QBs, and now he's got a great one, even if not full. I think they keep him protected, throw a lot of short passes early, and that'll be enough in the AFC west.

Detroit Lions 9 - UNDER
Classic step-back season. They came up big, but have had too many distractions to not take a small decline. And they have no running backs. And Stafford could be hurt any day. And they benefitted the msot from Cutler being hurt last year. Too hard to see them getting back to playoffs.

Green Bay Packers 11.5 - OVER

Their defense is the key to whether or not they get back to the Super Bowl, but for the regular season, their offense alone is enough to get them to 12-13 wins.

Houston Texans 10 - OVER

They finally broke through last year and the division is terrible. Easy

Indianapolis Colts 5.5 - UNDER

Luck will be fine his rookie year, but there's too many holes in other places that were covered up the past few years before Manning's absence exposed them. They need time to rebuild.

Jacksonville Jaguars 5.5 - OVER

Not much of a vote of confidence, but they ought to be able to get at least 6 wins. They have the D, and they won 5 last year with everything going wrong.
Kansas City Chiefs 8 - PUSH
Some optimism here, but I jsut don't think they're that good. LAst year they had problems, but even when they were good the year before, they weren't amazing. 8 wins is right on the money.

Miami Dolphins 6.5 - UNDER

They're going with a rookie QB and not giving him anyone to help. Not a good look this year.
Minnesota Vikings 6 - UNDER
Not for a long, long time.

New England Patriots 12 - OVER

They don't have any problem winning in the regular season. With a not-so-good division and a fairly easy schedule, doesn't seem like they can slip.

New Orleans Saints 10 - UNDER

I don't think they'll fall apart from all the stuff that happens, and I could see them winning 12 without problem. But the division is a little tougher, schedule is tough, and 9 wins is more reasonable.

New York Giants 9 - OVER

So hard to tell where they're heading. The last time they won it all, they came back with a great record the next year but lost early in the playoffs. I'll take that.

New York Jets 8.5 - UNDER

Aside from the controversy that Tebow-Snachez brings, they don't even have anyone for them to throw to. I think Tebow is mostly used as a runner anyway, and the D is nice, but the passing game is still bad and it's not all Sanchez's fault. Their receivers are TERRIBLE. Winning more than 7-8 games with a rush-only attack is hard.

Oakland Raiders 7 - OVER

If Jason Campbell didn't get hurt last year, they would have won the division easily.. but he did, they panicked and traded for Carson Palmer, and now they're

Philadelphia Eagles 10 - UNDER
I... I'm not getting my hopes up anymore. I know better. I'll go under and keep expectations low, so if nice things happen, I will appreciate them. (Besides, my very conservative estimate has them at 9 wins. They should have done it last year.)
Pittsburgh Steelers 10 - OVER

They claim the division again this year, but only because I don't trust Cinncy and Baltimore enough, and the sked is not too bad. They're getting old in spots.

San Diego Chargers 9 - UNDER

They used to be a guaranteed over for the regular season, but they can't even get that right anymore. Sorry Norv. No one trusts you.

San Francisco 49ers 10 - OVER

I do think they will fall back a bit, but the division is still bad enough and their schedule easy enough to get to 11 wins without problem. They made some nice moves to get depth, so even if they're not as lucky, they have more people now.
Seattle Seahawks 7.5 - UNDER

See Dolphins. Rookie QB plus no one to throw to is unsettling.

St. Louis Rams 6 - UNDER

I'm a little tempted to go with the over because I really like Jeff Fisher, who always overachieved in Tennessee, but they just don't have the talent.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 - OVER

They weren't as bad as they were last year. They also weren't as good as they thought when they won 10 the year before. 7 or 8 wins is a nice middle.

Tennessee Titans 7.5 - UNDER

Uncertainty on offense kills them.

Washington Redskins 6.5 - UNDER

Everyone is thinking they will be a sleeper, but RG3 can't carry them yet and he has no help. I'm worried about them, for sure, but I don't think they make any big jumps this year.