Leo's over unders 2012: RESULTS

Oh, this is not going to be good. No sir. Let's see how I did this year (predictions in italics, results in bold).

Arizona Cardinals 6.5 - OVER

They maanged to sneak in 8 wins last year despite all the QB controversy. Nothing has really changed, but I think they can get to 7 in this awful division.

INCORRECT. Apparently,  letting your quarterback get killed on every play WILL have a negative effect on your record, no matter how good your defense is.

Atlanta Falcons 9 - OVER

10 wins is their norm. They can get to 10 or 11 every year without problem.

YES. They're like the Braves of football. They win games, just not in the postseason.

Baltimore Ravens 10  - PUSH

That sounds about right. I like this team, but I think they need one more year to get more offensive help and Suggs back.

YES. A rare push call, but it made sense.

Buffalo Bills 8  - OVER

People think they could be a sleeper, and they started out hot last year, but still finished 6-10. 8-8 seems good, although with the right breaks, they could go higher. Their schedule is super easy, so that helps.

INCORRECT. Why did we like them? They never come through.

Carolina Panthers 7.5 - UNDER
People think they're going to hit it big with Cam, but I'm waiting. The division is still tough and they haven't figured everything out. 

YES. Kind of a wacky ride, where I looked right at first, then hung on as they made a run. They just finish short.

Chicago Bears 9.5 - OVER
If Cutler hadn't gotten hurt last season, they would've likely been in the playoffs. I think they can get to 10 or more.

YES. But it wasn't enough to get to the playoffs, or save Lovie.

Cincinnati Bengals 8 - UNDER

Yeah, they surprised everyone, and they're young, but have they ever been able to string together 2 good seasons in a row in the recent era? Nope. 

INCORRECT. Well, Marvin Lewis, you finally put together 2 straight winning seasons. I didn't think it was possible. Now if they can ever win a playoff game....

Cleveland Browns 5 - UNDER
It's Cleveland.

INCORRECT. This is why this is hard. Vegas got it exact. 4 or 5 seems to be the norm here.

Dallas Cowboys 8.5 - OVER

9 wins and a first round loss in the playoffs isn't even guaranteed for them anymore, but I liked it.

INCORRECT. Just missed it, but oh, was it fun seeing them blow it again.

Denver Broncos 8.5 - OVER

Yes, I am buying the Manning rejuvenation. Even if he's 60 % of what he was, he's still better than Tebow. John Fox did well with bad QBs, and now he's got a great one, even if not full. I think they keep him protected, throw a lot of short passes early, and that'll be enough in the AFC west.

YES. This is my only sure thing that happened.

Detroit Lions 9 - UNDER
Classic step-back season. They came up big, but have had too many distractions to not take a small decline. And they have no running backs. And Stafford could be hurt any day. And they benefitted the msot from Cutler being hurt last year. Too hard to see them getting back to playoffs.

YES. No one should be surprised here.

Green Bay Packers 11.5 - OVER

Their defense is the key to whether or not they get back to the Super Bowl, but for the regular season, their offense alone is enough to get them to 12-13 wins.

INCORRECT. Although (and I'm sure their fans would make the case) this hinges on RefGate. But really, they should have won that last regular season game against the Vikings. I'm still pissed.

Houston Texans 10 - OVER

They finally broke through last year and the division is terrible. Easy 

YES. It was easy.

Indianapolis Colts 5.5 - UNDER

Luck will be fine his rookie year, but there's too many holes in other places that were covered up the past few years before Manning's absence exposed them. They need time to rebuild.

INCORRECT. Dammit, I should've just taken the over with that easy, easy sked and the upgrade from awful QBs to Luck.

Jacksonville Jaguars 5.5 - OVER

Not much of a vote of confidence, but they ought to be able to get at least 6 wins. They have the D, and they won 5 last year with everything going wrong.

INCORRECT. Oh gawd. I guess I thought Jacksonville and not Indy would be the beneficiary of an easy schedule and that division. Let that be the last time anyone took Blaine Gabbert over Andrew Luck in anything.

Kansas City Chiefs 8 - PUSH

Some optimism here, but I jsut don't think they're that good. LAst year they had problems, but even when they were good the year before, they weren't amazing. 8 wins is right on the money.

INCORRECT. Ha, good luck, Reid.

Miami Dolphins 6.5 - UNDER

They're going with a rookie QB and not giving him anyone to help. Not a good look this year.

INCORRECT. Feck, the late push gave them barely over. Tannehill actually did some stuff. 

Minnesota Vikings 6 - UNDER

Not for a long, long time.

INCORRECT. Well, this is my worst one. I'm going to say that they're my biggest surprise. Even with the Colts, you could talk me into them being ok based on an easy sked and Luck's development. The Vikings had to beat the Niners, Bears, and Packers to get in the playoffs, and Ponder wasn't even that good. AP earned everything he'll be getting.

New England Patriots 12 - OVER

They don't have any problem winning in the regular season. With a not-so-good division and a fairly easy schedule, doesn't seem like they can slip.

INCORRECT. I hate you, Vegas. Right on the money.

New Orleans Saints 10 - UNDER

I don't think they'll fall apart from all the stuff that happens, and I could see them winning 12 without problem. But the division is a little tougher, schedule is tough, and 9 wins is more reasonable.

YES. Too much stuff for them to handle.

New York Giants 9 - OVER

So hard to tell where they're heading. The last time they won it all, they came back with a great record the next year but lost early in the playoffs. I'll take that.

INCORRECT. Well, they usually don't post the same exact record twice. That was unforeseen.

New York Jets 8.5 - UNDER

Aside from the controversy that Tebow-Snachez brings, they don't even have anyone for them to throw to. I think Tebow is mostly used as a runner anyway, and the D is nice, but the passing game is still bad and it's not all Sanchez's fault. Their receivers are TERRIBLE. Winning more than 7-8 games with a rush-only attack is hard.

YES. I guess this was pretty obvious in hindsight.

Oakland Raiders 7 - OVER

If Jason Campbell didn't get hurt last year, they would have won the division easily.. but he did, they panicked and traded for Carson Palmer, and now they're ok.

INCORRECT. Why did they fire their last coach again?

Philadelphia Eagles 10 - UNDER

I... I'm not getting my hopes up anymore. I know better. I'll go under and keep expectations low, so if nice things happen, I will appreciate them. (Besides, my very conservative estimate has them at 9 wins. They should have done it last year.)

YES. Well we all know what happened here.

/slits wrists

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 - OVER

They claim the division again this year, but only because I don't trust Cinncy and Baltimore enough, and the sked is not too bad. They're getting old in spots.

INCORRECT. Age and injuries did catch up to them this time.

San Diego Chargers 9 - UNDER

They used to be a guaranteed over for the regular season, but they can't even get that right anymore. Sorry Norv. No one trusts you.

YES. I'm going to miss you, Norv. No one was as dependable at failing.

San Francisco 49ers 10 - OVER

I do think they will fall back a bit, but the division is still bad enough and their schedule easy enough to get to 11 wins without problem. They made some nice moves to get depth, so even if they're not as lucky, they have more people now.

YES. They had to fight for it, but they made it.

Seattle Seahawks 7.5 - UNDER

See Dolphins. Rookie QB plus no one to throw to is unsettling.

INCORRECT. All our logic about rookie QBs is gone. Pete Carroll is having fun. EVERYTHING IS UPSIDE DOWN.

St. Louis Rams 6 - UNDER

I'm a little tempted to go with the over because I really like Jeff Fisher, who always overachieved in Tennessee, but they just don't have the talent.

INCORRECT. They just made it over. Should've trusted Fisher.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 - OVER

They weren't as bad as they were last year. They also weren't as good as they thought when they won 10 the year before. 7 or 8 wins is a nice middle.

YES. They looked even better earlier, then fell apart, but still made it. They had bizarro seasons with Carolina and somehow ended up in the same place.

Tennessee Titans 7.5 - UNDER

Uncertainty on offense kills them.

YES. I had to look this one up because I knew they were bad, but I wasn't sure how bad. What a forgettable team.

Washington Redskins 6.5 - UNDER

Everyone is thinking they will be a sleeper, but RG3 can't carry them yet and he has no help. I'm worried about them, for sure, but I don't think they make any big jumps this year.

INCORRECT. Well, at least I hate them a lot less than the Cowboys and Giants.


RESULTS: 14-18 (.4375)  

Yep, my first year going under .500 in picks. I don't know if I will be back next year, or if I ever should try this again. Not a good showing.