Leo's over under predictions for 2013

I'm not even going to go into what I did last year. Let's just say it was bad, maybe the worst in the almost a decade I've been doing this, and move on. Here's my picks for this year's NFL win totals, based on the official odds from Vegas sports books.


Arizona Cardinals - 5.5 - UNDER

People seem to think they could be ok this year. I'm still not sure Carson Palmer is better than what they've had, and the division is brutal. 

Atlanta Falcons -  10 - OVER

They've been a pretty safe bet to get to 10 or 11 wins every year. I don't see why that stops this year. They could sneak into the Super Bowl like they almost did last year. 

Baltimore Ravens - 8.5 - UNDER

They got rid of a lot of people, and for good reason, but they will have to take a step back, and injuries have killed their offense.  

Buffalo Bills - 6.5 - UNDER

Just give it to C.J. Spiller all the time. There's no hope here. /fantasy plug

Carolina Panthers - 7 - OVER

They seemed to be a little disappointed last year and still finished 7-9. They can probably get to 8 wins. 

Chicago Bears - 8.5 - OVER

I think the new coach and offensive change will be good for this season. Don't know about the future, but it will help them.  

Cincinnati Bengals - 8.5 - OVER

I didn't think they could put together two good seasons in a row, and that killed me last year. They are suddenly the best team in the division. 

Cleveland Browns - 6 - OVER

I kind of like this team, and with the Ravens and Steelers slipping, they might just be able. Not a tough schedule, so I'll give it to them... but you can never trust Cleveland. 

Dallas Cowboys - 8.5 - OVER

Nine wins and a playoff exit? Yes they can. 

Denver Broncos - 11.5 - UNDER

Just slightly worried that they might get to 11 and not more, but they should still win the division easily.

Detroit Lions - 8 - UNDER

Tough. 8-8 seems good, but I'll go under. They'll bounce back, but they have too many defensive worries to make it far. 

Green Bay Packers - 10.5 - OVER

A lot of people seem to think they will be down, but a healthy Aaron Rodgers is pretty much a guarantee for 11 wins. 

Houston Texans - 10.5 - OVER

They'll run through their division again, and be on top for 12 wins. 

Indianapolis Colts - 8.5 - UNDER

They will drop back, but not so far, because Luck is still good. Still, they're probably not going to make it to 9-10 wins again. 

Jacksonville Jaguars - 5 - UNDER

Until they figure out QB, nothing really matters. 

Kansas City Chiefs - 7.5 - OVER

There's Andy Reid! He actually is a nice fit for this team. And Alex Smith is a nice fit for him. They might just sneak into the playoffs. 

Miami Dolphins - 8 - UNDER

I didn't like them last year and they burned me. Well, I don't like them this year. Need way more on offense. 

Minnesota Vikings - 7.5 - UNDER

No one saw them coming last year. Unlike the Colts, they didn't use an easy schedule to jump to the playoffs, so they shouldn't fall back.... except everyone hates Christian Ponder. And he lost Percy Harvin. And they're not as good as Bears or Packers. 

New England Patriots - 11 - PUSH

If they were in any other division, all their offensive losses would catch up to them. But they play in the AFC east, so of course they're going to walk through it again. 

New Orleans Saints - 9 - OVER

Sean Payton is back and even with questions on D, he's usually has this team at 10 wins. 

New York Giants - 9 - PUSH

They keep getting there, and I think they'll be back in that area again. Some people are a little down on them, but I trust them the most out of anyone in the NFC east. 

New York Jets - 6.5 - UNDER

This is a giant train wreck and there's no way it ends well. 

Oakland Raiders - 5.5 - UNDER

Even if Matt Flynn looked ok, and he doesn't, he has no one to go to. Hard to believe they were actually kind of good 2 years ago.

Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 - UNDER

Well, I've learned, if I'm not sure, take the under. Then at least I'll be pleasantly surprised if t Pittsburgh Steelers - 9 - UNDER

They're tough, but 8-8 is a real possibility. The schedule is hard and they're not getting younger.  

San Diego Chargers - 7.5 - UNDER

They used to be reliable for the over, even though you knew they'd screw up in the playoffs. Then, after a few years of Norv, that wasn't true anymore. Now, Norv is gone, so I don't know how to approach this.... until I looked and saw that they really just don't have that talent anymore, and a lot of people are hurt. Sorry Marmalard. 

San Francisco 49ers - 11 - UNDER

I still like them, but they have a hard schedule and they're going to have a few problems on offense. 10 wins seems better, but I wouldn't be surprised if they went over. 

Seattle Seahawks - 10.5 - OVER

If they won 11 lat year, and have improved.... it's weird for me to have them winning more games than the 49ers, but they were only half a game behind the 49ers last year, so maybe it makes sense. They're loaded. 

St. Louis Rams - 7.5 - OVER

This is a hard one. They're not bad, but their schedule and division are killer. They made it to 7 wins last year, but it's so tough. I will take the over strictly on Jeff Fisher. His teams usually over perform. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7.5 - UNDER

They came back last year, but no one there seems to have any faith in Josh Freeman, so that's a problem. Their division is better, too. I could see them sneaking into the playoffs but I'm guessing not.

Tennessee Titans - 6.5 - UNDER

There's no one that really scares you here, not even Chris Johnson at this point. 

Washington Redskins - 8.5 - UNDER

I didn't seem them coming last year. RGIII was indeed great. But I don't trust his health, and their schedule is tough, and people will be planning for them. That's enough to call a drop back.